Texas Winter 2015-2016

[wxman57]

Looks like well above-normal temps from the southern Rockies up through western & central Canada for the next couple of weeks. Hard to get any really cold air in Texas with that pattern. Meanwhile, it's 70 in Houston but feels pretty darn cold for biking. Having to wear leg warmers and a long-sleeve jersey this afternoon. The clouds really make it feel cold.

Wxman come take a trip to Ohio, I'll show you what real cold is.

No thanks. I know what real cold is. Went skiing in Colorado for the big 1989 Arctic outbreak. First morning there, the temperature dropped to -42F. By lunch time, the temperature had climbed to nearly zero. Bright sunshine and not a hint of wind mid mountain. We had lunch outside and unzipped our coats. Didn't need ice in our drinks, as they were freezing over as we ate.

[hriverajr]

A key to any significant rainfall across Texas is significant return flow off the Gulf. It looks like such return flow sets up next Thu-Fri-Sat. That may be enough to result in some significant rain next Sun/Mon along a slow-moving cold front.

Don't go Bastardi now hehehe.. Significant east of I 35.. .

[Ntxw]

If you thought last week was mild and boring wait until this week. Last week was just NW flow aloft, this week the PNA ridge comes out centered in south Texas. Looks like a summer 500mb chart.



Complete opposite of southern rockies trough for cold/rain.

[TheProfessor]

Only this winter can I have a perfect storm track but the storm have enough Warm Air Advection to drop possible close to an inch of rain(it might actually freeze on the ground) instead of a foot of snow. It might actually be closer to .6 inch of rain and 4 inches of snow. ( I know you guys would take the little bit of snow and the rain and run with it, but it's so frustrating to be so close to a major event ) I'm holding out hope that this storm goes neg tilt a bit earlier and the WAA is stopped short.

[Portastorm]

This pretty much tells the whole sad story right here ...

[Tireman4]

This pretty much tells the whole sad story right here ...

http://i63.tinypic.com/2vl9uuo.png

This is just depressing..good gravy Porta..can you spare a brother some cold?

[Brent]

This pretty much tells the whole sad story right here ...

Well on the bright side we weren't alone...

[wxman57]

The 18Z GFS indicates we (D-FW to Houston) might just have a shot at some lows in the mid 40s over the next 10 days. As for snow - HA! No way. Chances of any snow over the next 3-4 weeks are slim to none. Better start looking toward next winter for that.

Had a nice long (40-mile) bike ride to Beck's Prime in The Heights today. Cloudy and cool (74-75) but didn't feel nearly as cold as yesterday's 69-70. Was a bit chilly in shorts & short-sleeve jersey. The 50 mph headwind going back home didn't help.

[Texas Snowman]

On a different subject, happy Valentines Day everyone!

[Ntxw]

On a positive note January's PDO came in at +1.53. That's two year's worth of positive readings now. So no matter how bad the rain may be missing, long term drought does not have a backbone to stand on at least for now from the Pacific. 2016 will likely remain +PDO. Also this is long enough of positive readings to conclude that the 2008-2014 megadrought has ended from late latest -PDO regime. The question now is, will this be a long duration +PDO or bump in the road like 2002-2006 was. What happens in March-April-May will tell us lots about the rest of the year, as meteorological spring is when reservoirs and ground needs to be filled most. As we saw last year clearly, if you can get the rains in spring you can weather a hot summer quite well

[somethingfunny]

My Mulberry and Sugargum trees are budding, my Live Oak tree is molting, and my dog's winter coat is falling out in piles as big as my dog. Winter is over.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Pardon me as i look forward into the Spring/Summer for a bit, but this warm water off of mexico/So. Cal i think could be the culprit of our terrible winter. I want to look at other analogs but it seems this is having a major effect on the upper level pattern just west of us. What im scared of, is this hanging around for the summer. Ridges poking up from this region into the southern rockies can cut off alot of our moisture flow and steer storms around Texas. Now, we are expecting a big flip to La nina of some sort for next year. What are the implications if have La nina? Will this warm pool stik around?


I know there is SO MUCH that goes into our weather and not something as simple as this, but any ideas? I love brainstorming on possible scenarios that can play out for us .

[Ntxw]

Thats the expanded hadley cell, its not too uncommon for El Nino. I think a part of the reason is that warm waters (NE Pacific) was tucked too close to the western coast of NA. This neutralized the warm pool and promotes ridging further east vs what we saw in 2013 and 2014/which was the blob in the GOA. This year that further east warmth went into PNA territory. 1982/1997 had the same issue.

The El Nino though forced it east with the strong Aleutian low expansion from the tropical Pacific, chicken or egg? Or were we doomed from the start?

[Ntxw]

Focus on the area from the Aleutian to the British Columbian coast and notice the shift.

Feb 2014


Feb 2015


Feb 2016


I knew in the fall the El Nino would slowly decay the NE Pac warm pool, but hesitated because it was still alive back then

[Ntxw]

And here is the charts for 1982, 1998 the north east Pacific is similar, in fact 1998 is nearly a carbon copy globally. This is from ECMWF Ocean reanalysis which is a great product

[wxman57]

Overnight GFS says winter returns to Texas near the end of the month. Yep, lows down to the low 40s between Dallas & Houston - possibly as cold as 39 degrees one night!

[davidiowx]

Overnight GFS says winter returns to Texas near the end of the month. Yep, lows down to the low 40s between Dallas & Houston - possibly as cold as 39 degrees one night!

[Portastorm]

Hey davidiowx, I don't think we could have find a more appropriate response to our resident Heat Miser! Love it.

Meanwhile and referring to a post above from TeamPlayersBlue, I don't think the flip to La Niña is a given yet. I've read enough from experts to suggest longer range ENSO predictions have issues.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Thanks for the post Ntx. The expanded hadley cell makes sense. Funny how similar we were to 82-83 yet turned out quite differently. Too many factors at play to just look at one thing though. Thanks again.

To porta, that wouldnt be a bad thing for Nino lite to come back next year. Has that ever happened after a super nino though? The dynamics in the atmosphere i believe would make that very tough, (Warmer water near W Pac, creating stronger westerlies over equator) but if we could get a modiki nino scenario, that would be good for us.

[Ralph's Weather]

Maybe next winter will start like the 83 one. That would make up for this winter and then some. Guess we were due for a bad winter though being El Nino if we can get the PNA to slack up in March there is enough cold around for a late surprise. Heck we have had April snow here before.