Texas Winter 2015-2016

[dhweather]

Maybe it will rain at least...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... cus_40.png

NO

We technically registered a trace of precip last night, a few drops, then it quit. Not enough to collect .01 in the Davis weather station. 6Z GFS has 0.14" for Mesquite through seven days.

[dhweather]

Levi Cowan tweeted that the "February ECMWF seasonal forecast brings the La Nina by Summer, but no clear signal for low pressure in the tropics"


https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/sta ... 7361462272

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Maybe next winter will start like the 83 one. That would make up for this winter and then some. Guess we were due for a bad winter though being El Nino if we can get the PNA to slack up in March there is enough cold around for a late surprise. Heck we have had April snow here before.

Nino year too.

[Portastorm]

Thanks for the post Ntx. The expanded hadley cell makes sense. Funny how similar we were to 82-83 yet turned out quite differently. Too many factors at play to just look at one thing though. Thanks again.

To porta, that wouldnt be a bad thing for Nino lite to come back next year. Has that ever happened after a super nino though? The dynamics in the atmosphere i believe would make that very tough, (Warmer water near W Pac, creating stronger westerlies over equator) but if we could get a modiki nino scenario, that would be good for us.

Think I need to clarify my comments as I wasn't suggesting another Nino. I would agree that such an outcome is very unlikely. All I was saying is that those longer range ENSO forecasts, as I have seen, aren't always a "lock." Yes most of the forecasts out there right now suggest a weak to moderate Nina. Here's what I wonder ... what happened to neutral seasons?! Why does it always have to be a Nino or Nina?!

I think as Ntxw alluded to the other day that a weak Nina might actually be a really good thing for us next winter as those type of years can deliver the goods. Despite their long, dry, and warm spells, when the jetstream breaks down in the Ninas, we end up getting those massive Polar fronts which drop temps some 40-50 degrees in Texas.

The other day I had an interesting exchange on Twitter with Eric Blake (NHC) and Michael Ventrice (WSI) about this Nino and the Texas weather. They suggested the subtropical jet has remained plenty active but the placement obviously wasn't in our favor. They said the nature and scope of the convection in the Pacific has a lot to do with what ultimately occurs.

[Ntxw]

CfsV2 is calling for persistent El Nino in 2016. While the euro suite has neutral-Nina. It would be unprecedented if the nino continued. 1957-1958 is the only strong event that I can think of which went on to another Nino.

Today's update continues to show it hasn't weakened much still hovering around 2.5. Nearly all other Ninos have shown significant weakening by now, not this one at least not yet.

[TheProfessor]

Can we push any potential Ninas back to next winter please? I don't want to come back to Texas and have a brutal summer.

[TarrantWx]

This morning when I landed in Baltimore



On the drive to the hotel



View from my hotel window



Snow has now transitioned to sleet though. WAA is expected to continue and change the precip to freezing rain and eventually rain with 1-2 inches of rain expected tomorrow. Honestly it's nice to see any type of precipitation at all.

[Portastorm]

Thanks for the trip pix!

We'd ask you to bring some back with you but I'm sure the PNA would find a way to steal it.

[Tireman4]

Porta...I wanna move...lol

[wxman57]

CfsV2 is calling for persistent El Nino in 2016. While the euro suite has neutral-Nina. It would be unprecedented if the nino continued. 1957-1958 is the only strong event that I can think of which went on to another Nino.

Today's update continues to show it hasn't weakened much still hovering around 2.5. Nearly all other Ninos have shown significant weakening by now, not this one at least not yet.

CFS forecasts are sort of like the NOGAPS' hurricane forecasts. If its ever close to my forecast then I must be 180 deg off.

[TheProfessor]

CfsV2 is calling for persistent El Nino in 2016. While the euro suite has neutral-Nina. It would be unprecedented if the nino continued. 1957-1958 is the only strong event that I can think of which went on to another Nino.

Today's update continues to show it hasn't weakened much still hovering around 2.5. Nearly all other Ninos have shown significant weakening by now, not this one at least not yet.

CFS forecasts are sort of like the NOGAPS' hurricane forecasts. If its ever close to my forecast then I must be 180 deg off.

lol

[Ntxw]

CFS forecasts are sort of like the NOGAPS' hurricane forecasts. If its ever close to my forecast then I must be 180 deg off.

This is true, but! ENSO changes very slowly and really so do SST's. CFS is usually decent with that frankly because drastic changes don't tend to happen very fast with SST's relatively speaking. The Nino isn't fading very quickly real time.

[JDawg512]

CFS forecasts are sort of like the NOGAPS' hurricane forecasts. If its ever close to my forecast then I must be 180 deg off.

This is true, but! ENSO changes very slowly and really so do SST's. CFS is usually decent with that frankly because drastic changes don't tend to happen very fast with SST's relatively speaking. The Nino isn't fading very quickly real time.

Good points.


We also can't forget about the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and it's role with the niño/niña cycles.

[weatherdude1108]

Forecast change next Sunday and Monday for the Austin area.

Sunday
A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77.

Sunday Night
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51.

Monday
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 64.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... sKefnpMHqD

[TheAustinMan]

I sure love the rainfall Texas has been getting this winter! Here are the precip percentages over the last 30 days for Central Texas. Delightful!

[Brent]

The GFS actually has below normal highs most of next week... but upper 30s is the coldest it gets for lows at DFW.

The Monday rain event is barely an event this run... with fantasy rain for Feb 29/Mar 1.

The Euro looks like a quick hitting rain event Sunday Night into Monday morning mostly... and then looks like we return to the lovely NW flow while another winter storm hits parts of the EC... some things never change.

[wxman57]

As it appears that any chances for winter-type weather between D-FW and Houston (and Austin) are now close to zero, I have a question about a previous post somewhere on this forum. Someone posted a link to a global tropical satellite loop for 2015. I can't find it. Anyone know where to look?

[Tireman4]

Not so fast my warm weathered friend. Correct me if I am wrong, but has it not snowed in March in the Houston area. Look at March 1932. Humm...never say never sir...

http://www.wxresearch.com/snowhou.htm

[hriverajr]

Not so fast my warm weathered friend. Correct me if I am wrong, but has it not snowed in March in the Houston area. Look at March 1932. Humm...never say never sir...

http://www.wxresearch.com/snowhou.htm

I go on record with 57, it's over for Central Texas and points south and east.

[Ntxw]

I'll take it further and say stick a fork in Oklahoma and N Texas as well. PNA going more positive so no pattern change through early March. In fact more abnormal warmth.