ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

Not much change to Nino 3.4 at this CPC weekly update of 2/15/16. The big question is if CFSv2 will be right about El Nino continuing thru most of 2016 as they include those words when they talk about the CFSv2 forecast while they say another thing in the same update eluding about El Nino will be gone by late Spring or early Summer.Which scenario will be right?

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

Which model will be right? ECMWF or CFSv2?

[Darvince]

what

[Andrew92]

Well this is an interesting development. It is a very long ways out, and could be subject to pretty significant error, especially going against the Euro which calls for La Nina by fall. But seeing an El Nino still in November....hmmm!

None of the big three years that I have mentioned for comparison for this year (1959, 1983, and 1992) had a full-fledged El Nino going in November. 1992 was close, as there were still good warm anomalies in the EPAC MDR, and 1993 would see another warming trend towards El Nino as well. Perhaps I should take a look at a year like 1953 or 1958 for comparison now when I get a chance, to cover all bases?

-Andrew92

[Kingarabian]

Which model will be right? ECMWF or CFSv2?

Although the Euro has generally been junk with ENSO forecasts for the past 3 years, I'd side with it this time. La Nina, to me, is the most logical thing prediction for this summer when you consider historical context. But then again, super El-Nino's are rare and to me they behave differently than regular Nino's. So if this El-Nino continues to wind down slowly, then I'll lean with a neutral-warm neutral.

[cycloneye]

@MJVentrice
No doubt about it- ENSO 1.2 has significantly cooled over the past month while ENSO 4 has warmed. Matches LF VP200.

[Ntxw]

Daily SOI -40.20

[wxman57]

Although the Euro has generally been junk with ENSO forecasts for the past 3 years, I'd side with it this time. La Nina, to me, is the most logical thing prediction for this summer when you consider historical context. But then again, super El-Nino's are rare and to me they behave differently than regular Nino's. So if this El-Nino continues to wind down slowly, then I'll lean with a neutral-warm neutral.

Last February's ECMWF ENSO forecast was quite excellent (below). However, it did struggle in two previous seasons, over-forecasting an El Nino.



Taking a look at how CFS2 did last February (below), it did pretty badly.

[Kingarabian]

Although the Euro has generally been junk with ENSO forecasts for the past 3 years, I'd side with it this time. La Nina, to me, is the most logical thing prediction for this summer when you consider historical context. But then again, super El-Nino's are rare and to me they behave differently than regular Nino's. So if this El-Nino continues to wind down slowly, then I'll lean with a neutral-warm neutral.

Last February's ECMWF ENSO forecast was quite excellent (below). However, it did struggle in two previous seasons, over-forecasting an El Nino.

Taking a look at how CFS2 did last February (below), it did pretty badly.

I think the Euro was due to predict this El-Nino right considering it was constantly forecasting a strong El-Nino for the past 3 years. I think the CFS took the safe route considering the super El-Nino forecasts in the prior year were busts. I think I'll just take the mean between the CFS and the Euro.

[cycloneye]

The Mid Febuary plume of models continue to have El Nino going away by May,June and July period and Neutral takes over.The yellow consensus line doesn't go to barely La Nina until after October,November and December.



http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/c ... o/current/

[xironman]

Although the Euro has generally been junk with ENSO forecasts for the past 3 years, I'd side with it this time. La Nina, to me, is the most logical thing prediction for this summer when you consider historical context. But then again, super El-Nino's are rare and to me they behave differently than regular Nino's. So if this El-Nino continues to wind down slowly, then I'll lean with a neutral-warm neutral.

Last February's ECMWF ENSO forecast was quite excellent (below). However, it did struggle in two previous seasons, over-forecasting an El Nino.



Taking a look at how CFS2 did last February (below), it did pretty badly.

Two broken clocks in the spring window of uncertainty. Could be the other way around the next time. I would think using the magic 8 ball would be better at this time of year.

[Ntxw]

Per Hovmollers another robust WWB to end February. Weakening is still taking slow.

[cycloneye]

The CPC weekly update of 2/22/16 has Nino 3.4 going down to +2.4C.It has been a very slow decline so far in the past few weeks so let's see if the pace accelerates or continues like it has been in the past 3-4 weeks.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[Ntxw]

Daily SOI at -50.30

[cycloneye]

Daily SOI at -50.30

Ouch!!

[1900hurricane]

Daily SOI at -50.30

That's actually not a huge surprise considering the convective presence over the South Pacific compared to the Maritime Continent. The superposition of the ENSO base state and the upwards Madden Julian pulse is helping to drive convection over the former while keeping it suprpessed over the latter.

[Darvince]

The amount of convection over the southwestern Pacific for the past several days has been absolutely incredible, with nearly a solid covering of convection for that entire time across the entire region. Yet only Winston has come from that insane blob, sitting on its southern edge for the past week and a half.

Impressive WWB, but not as strong as the last record-breaking one:

[cycloneye]

Daily SOI continues way negative as of Febuary 23:

-46.11

[euro6208]

Since it's taking it's time to slowly weaken, could this possibly continue on as an el nino through the last half of year and possibly strengthen again as conditions might be favorable if it manages to pass the spring barrier?

[Ntxw]

Since it's taking it's time to slowly weaken, could this possibly continue on as an el nino through the last half of year and possibly strengthen again as conditions might be favorable if it manages to pass the spring barrier?

That's what the CFSv2 is calling for. Though it's on its own with that one. Statistical and historical odds favor a Nina and/or Neutral. One thing to note though, big La Nina's come fast and hard. They aren't gun shy about showing up. The natural base state of the eastern EQ Pacific is cooling trades. We would see very strong easterlies in the spring which none yet modeled at this time.