SPAC: Post-Tropical-WINSTON

[stormwise]

Closing in on 7?

[euro6208]

Remarkable now at it's strongest at 125 knots Cat 4!

11P WINSTON 160219 0600 17.5S 175.9W SHEM 125 929

[stormwise]

looking likely, Winston already is or is now nudging cat5
Edited*** added current data.

Satellite data

2016FEB19 065200 7.0 923.0 +2.0 140.0 7.0 7.2 7.2 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -37.96 -77.90 EYE 15 IR 59.7 -17.46 176.36 COMBO GOES15 51.0
2016FEB19 072200 7.1 920.0 +2.0 143.0 7.1 7.2 7.2 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -35.06 -78.04 EYE 17 IR 59.7 -17.46 176.45 COMBO



UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 FEB 2016 Time : 070000 UTC
Lat : 17:20:52 S Lon : 176:07:11 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 914.6mb/140.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.0 7.4 7.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

Center Temp : -24.7C Cloud Region Temp : -78.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 125km
- Environmental MSLP : 1002mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 52.5 degrees


TROPICAL CYCLONE THREAT TRACK MAP

Severe Tropical Cyclone WINSTON Category 5

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 44 issued 0720 UTC Friday 19 February 2016


Has met Fiji RSMC basin reqiurments for a cat5 over 10min.

[stormwise]

GOD BLESS FIJI.

looking likely, Winston already is or is now nudging cat5 SSHS
Edited*** added current data.

Satellite data

2016FEB19 065200 7.0 923.0 +2.0 140.0 7.0 7.2 7.2 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -37.96 -77.90 EYE 15 IR 59.7 -17.46 176.36 COMBO GOES15 51.0
2016FEB19 072200 7.1 920.0 +2.0 143.0 7.1 7.2 7.2 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -35.06 -78.04 EYE 17 IR 59.7 -17.46 176.45 COMBO



UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 FEB 2016 Time : 070000 UTC
Lat : 17:20:52 S Lon : 176:07:11 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 914.6mb/140.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.0 7.4 7.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

Center Temp : -24.7C Cloud Region Temp : -78.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 125km
- Environmental MSLP : 1002mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 52.5 degrees


TROPICAL CYCLONE THREAT TRACK MAP

Severe Tropical Cyclone WINSTON Category 5

Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 44 issued 0720 UTC Friday 19 February 2016


Has met Fiji RSMC basin reqiurments for a cat5 over 10min.

HWRF Insane model intensity.

[stormwise]

2016FEB19 093000 7.4 902.3 152.0 7.4 7.6 7.6 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -19.84 -79.04 EYE 19 IR 75.2 -17.35 176.64 SPRL HIM-8 51.9
2016FEB19 100000 7.5 899.2 155.0 7.5 7.8 7.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -9.72 -79.58 EYE 18 IR 75.2 -17.35 176.72 SPRL HIM-8 51.8
2016FEB19 103000 7.5 899.2 155.0 7.5 7.7 7.7 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -17.55 -79.39 EYE 17 IR 75.2 -17.35 176.81 SPRL HIM-8 51.8
2016FEB19 110000 7.6 896.0 158.0 7.6 7.9 7.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -12.83 -80.06 EYE 19 IR 75.2 -17.25 177.00 COMBO HIM-8 51.5

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 FEB 2016 Time : 113000 UTC
Lat : 17:20:53 S Lon : 177:04:53 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.6 / 896.0mb/158.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.6 7.9 7.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : -4.4C Cloud Region Temp : -79.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 125km
- Environmental MSLP : 1002mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 51.5 degrees

****************************************************

[euro6208]

Both EURO and GFS is northerly.

EURO over the main island, Viti Levu +800,000, while GFS hits Vanua Levu...

[Yellow Evan]

Likely 140-145, a bit below the extreme ADT. JTWC, SAB, and CPHC all have this at T6.5, but it definitely has/had a case for T7.0 (question is the CMG thick enough?).

[1900hurricane]

ADT 8.2.1 might be too extreme with intensity since it seems to be prioritizing the CDO temp too much when compared to the eye temp which is still below 0*C. With that said though, Winston is being viewed at a rather large angle (VZA >50*), so it is possible (if not likely) that the eye is a fair bit warmer and Winston is in actuality a SSHWS Category 5 (I'd still say the raw 8.0s are still outlandish though).

[1900hurricane]

ADT 8.2.1 CI is now 8.0, raw up to 8.3 from an eye that has broken into the warm medium grey category. I wouldn't go that high, but Winston is getting very strong now, and might be pushing 155 kt by my eye.





Also worth noting is that CIMSS adjusted their scale to go up to T8.5. Apparently they were tired of storms breaking the 8.0 ceiling.

[1900hurricane]

It looks like Winston will be riding a tongue of high heat content all the way to Fiji.

[mrbagyo]

Looks like I was extremely busy at the office for the past few days. Totally surprised! Gawd what a cyclone. Must be at least 145 knots now.

[Alyono]

May be heading to the northern main island and not the southern one

[1900hurricane]

Winston can be clearly seen in the high resolution Fiji floater on Himawari-8 on this site.

[mrbagyo]

[Alyono]

Just got a 7.5 when doing a Dvorak on this

[1900hurricane]

Here's some early morning visible.

[Alyono]

An island outside of the eyewall had a sustained wind of 89 mph and a pressure of 955mb. Vanua Balavu

[1900hurricane]

JTWC is going with 145 kt at 18Z, same as they had operationally for Pam almost a year ago.

[Alyono]

somehow, there was just a surface report of 107 kt winds and 936mb