SPAC: Post-Tropical-WINSTON

[galaxy401]

Getting at its strongest at the worst possible time for Fiji...Is it hitting a populated area?

[1900hurricane]

Strange to see JTWC analyzing so unconstrained; that 160 kt analysis for 00Z actually makes Winston the strongest JTWC analyzed storm in the Southern Hemisphere.

[Alyono]

It just plowed over an island with about 9,000 people on it. Question is, does this wobble south. if so, it will hit Nadi and probably take out the RSMC. If not, it will hit the northern main island

[CrazyC83]

Strange to see JTWC analyzing so unconstrained; that 160 kt analysis for 00Z actually makes Winston the strongest JTWC analyzed storm in the Southern Hemisphere.

I can't remember ever seeing so much CDG on a SHEM satellite image. What did Monica 2006 look like on the same scale?

[cycloneye]

Impressive video from the Island of Taveuni.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kRrTUvFlTCM

[supercane4867]

160kt? ummm....ok

Just wonder what happened to JTWC these days. Perhaps they are finally learning something from the NHC

[TheAustinMan]

Strange to see JTWC analyzing so unconstrained; that 160 kt analysis for 00Z actually makes Winston the strongest JTWC analyzed storm in the Southern Hemisphere.

I can't remember ever seeing so much CDG on a SHEM satellite image. What did Monica 2006 look like on the same scale?

RAMMB-CIRA hasn't really updated Winston's Dvorak images, but here is Monica via their service:

[mrbagyo]

Strange to see JTWC analyzing so unconstrained; that 160 kt analysis for 00Z actually makes Winston the strongest JTWC analyzed storm in the Southern Hemisphere.

I can't remember ever seeing so much CDG on a SHEM satellite image. What did Monica 2006 look like on the same scale?

Then maybe you haven't seen Pam and Olaf- both had abundant amount CDG, Monica on the other hand has the most symetrical round appearance - a literal buzz saw

[1900hurricane]

Strange to see JTWC analyzing so unconstrained; that 160 kt analysis for 00Z actually makes Winston the strongest JTWC analyzed storm in the Southern Hemisphere.

I can't remember ever seeing so much CDG on a SHEM satellite image. What did Monica 2006 look like on the same scale?

Monica is below:



In terms of shear cold dark grey coverage, Olaf '05 is probably the one to beat, but there have been several others with impressive coverage as well, most recently Pam '15 last year.

[1900hurricane]

If Winston can avoid too much land interaction, the CDO is probably going to get very cold after the sun goes down.

[StormChaser75]

160kts! crazy wind speed ,especially for the south pacific .
I pray for Fiji

[supercane4867]

I see the center heading clearly WSW on radar loop. The eyewall may pass over northern coast of main island if trend continues

[1900hurricane]

The eyewall might be starting to double up based on radar too, but the inner clearly still reigns supreme.

[Yellow Evan]

For once, the JTWC is providing reasonable intensity estimates and Dvorak fixes.

FTR, CDG rings in the SHEM are quite common. Tropause is very cold down n this area of the world.

[Macrocane]

Wow, first Haiyan, then Patricia and now Winston. The Pacific has really broken wind speed records per JTWC data in the last few years.

[Yellow Evan]

FMS ADT: Seems to have caught up in the ADT problem with the basin type changing at 180W resulting in lower values.

2016FEB20 013000 7.9 895.3 +2.1 167.0 7.5 7.3 7.3 NO LIMIT ON OFF 12.55 -79.84 EYE 25 IR 59.7 -17.34 -179.74 COMBO HIM-8 48.3
2016FEB20 010000 8.0 892.1 +2.1 170.0 7.5 7.3 7.3 NO LIMIT ON OFF 14.67 -79.59 EYE 26 IR 59.7 -17.24 -179.88 COMBO HIM-8 48.4
2016FEB20 003000 8.0 892.1 +2.1 170.0 7.5 7.3 7.3 NO LIMIT ON OFF 12.01 -79.60 EYE 26 IR 59.7 -17.25 -180.00 COMBO HIM-8 48.5
2016FEB20 000000 8.0 892.1 +2.1 170.0 7.5 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT ON OFF 11.70 -79.08 EYE 28 IR 59.7 -17.25 179.95 COMBO HIM-8 48.6

[supercane4867]

It appears Winston is planning a total wipe-out on Viti Levu's nothern coast. The beach resort of Volivoli may not be around much longer

[1900hurricane]

Winston has almost completed the cold dark grey ring.

[CrazyC83]

Who (if anyone) is the backup for RSMC Nadi? If it can no longer function, does anyone take over, like BOM?

[1900hurricane]

Who (if anyone) is the backup for RSMC Nadi? If it can no longer function, does anyone take over, like BOM?

That's a good question, I'm not sure how that would work.