Texas Winter 2015-2016

[orangeblood]

I'm seeing large hemispheric changes in the pattern once we exit February. As bad as the PNA is the results are not entirely the same with shorter wavelengths. Things happen quickly and more rapidly vs drawn out when the pattern is stuck. Perhaps it is a combination of pattern changes as well as seasonal changes as the jets lift northward.

There is some beneficial rain early next week this coming Monday.

Yes, a very very stormy/active pattern for the southern plains appears on the horizon in week 2 and 3 time frame

[Ntxw]

The wet signal is real. Consensus for this upcoming system is widespread 1-2" for north and northeast Texas, 0.5-1.5" in central and SE Texas and some snow in the panhandle.

Those are generous rain amounts for wintertime.

A big event happening in the south Pacific, cyclone Winston is equiv to a cat 5 hurricane approaching Fiji. May be far away but its been toggling with the SOI. Nothing on earth is isolated

[Brent]

GFS is a parade of storms to start March too.

[dhweather]

2015:

AMJ - Floods
JAS - Drought
OND - Floods

2016:

JFM - Drought so far, hopefully March can buck the trend.

[STX Expat]

Happened a couple of years ago in early March here in North Texas. It was 17 degrees in Denison with thunder sleet at 3 pm in the afternoon. Ironically enough, I believe it was March 2.

My first winter in Sherman. Had what turned out to be lake effects snow that afternoon. What a storm. The last two winters have spoiled this south Texas boy. At least I saw it snow this year. Still holding out a little hope.

[wxman57]

We braved this mid-winter cold and had lunch outside at The Marina (a fish place) near the office. Temperature was only 79 degrees but I managed to stay warm without a heavy coat.

I see that recent GFS runs gave up on the big Texas ice storm for the 29th/1st. Big surprise. Don't count on its ability to forecast rain beyond 5 days, either.

[Ntxw]

Rain in 3 days, I repeat rain 3 days...

[ravyrn]

What's up with the smoke/haze in East Texas? Extremely smoky/hazy driving home this evening to Jacksonville from work in Palestine. The whole western horizon was lit up orange/red as the sun set and you could actually look straight at the sun as it was so hazy and was just a big orange ball.

[Brent]

What's up with the smoke/haze in East Texas? Extremely smoky/hazy driving home this evening to Jacksonville from work in Palestine. The whole western horizon was lit up orange/red as the sun set and you could actually look straight at the sun as it was so hazy and was just a big orange ball.

Wildfires? Certainly has been some in Oklahoma

[Ntxw]

What's up with the smoke/haze in East Texas? Extremely smoky/hazy driving home this evening to Jacksonville from work in Palestine. The whole western horizon was lit up orange/red as the sun set and you could actually look straight at the sun as it was so hazy and was just a big orange ball.

Wildfires? Certainly has been some in Oklahoma

There hasn't been any significant fires I know of in Texas though. Oklahoma ones wouldn't have that much effect so far away as in east Texas. It's been mostly cloudy with high clouds streaming in from the Pacific and low level moisture working it's way in from the gulf for the late weekend rain event. That might explain sun and haze but not smoke. Maybe something local?

[EnnisTx]

Not sure if they went through with it, but they were going to do a prescribed 900 acre burn today in South Johnson County.

[Brent]

Am I seeing things or is that some snow flurries over Denton/Collin County Wednesday morning?



It rains heavier/more on Tuesday in the metro than it does on Sunday/Monday...

[ravyrn]

What's up with the smoke/haze in East Texas? Extremely smoky/hazy driving home this evening to Jacksonville from work in Palestine. The whole western horizon was lit up orange/red as the sun set and you could actually look straight at the sun as it was so hazy and was just a big orange ball.

Wildfires? Certainly has been some in Oklahoma

There hasn't been any significant fires I know of in Texas though. Oklahoma ones wouldn't have that much effect so far away as in east Texas. It's been mostly cloudy with high clouds streaming in from the Pacific and low level moisture working it's way in from the gulf for the late weekend rain event. That might explain sun and haze but not smoke. Maybe something local?

It was definitely a haze from smoke. There was no source though that I could see it coming from. It just got progressively hazier/smokier as I drove on US79 from Palestine to Jacksonville. Was there somewhere upwind from Anderson/Cherokee counties that had a burn today? I could smell the smoke but I never saw it billowing up for anywhere, it had to have been from somewhere way up wind.

I could literally stare at the sun and see a big orange ball through the haze compared to the usually blinding sight it has in store for me on my drive home when looking into the side or rearview mirrors.

[Ntxw]

Am I seeing things or is that some snow flurries over Denton/Collin County Wednesday morning?

It rains heavier/more on Tuesday in the metro than it does on Sunday/Monday...

Vigorous storm early next week. How quickly it wraps up will likely keep red river areas with interest. Same old issues though, too warm at the surface it seems.

[Ntxw]

In other news, cyclone winston just became the strongest tropical cyclone in the southern hemisphere on record at 160knots. The Pacific has made the rest of the world's hurricanes look like a chew toy, especially after Patricia now Winston. Good thoughts to those in Fiji

[TheProfessor]

Am I seeing things or is that some snow flurries over Denton/Collin County Wednesday morning?

It rains heavier/more on Tuesday in the metro than it does on Sunday/Monday...

Vigorous storm early next week. How quickly it wraps up will likely keep red river areas with interest. Same old issues though, too warm at the surface it seems.

I'm hoping for the storm to not wrap up too soon but not too late either, it's going to be a thread the needle storm for me, but it could be an epic one if everything phases at the right time.

[Brent]

Am I seeing things or is that some snow flurries over Denton/Collin County Wednesday morning?

It rains heavier/more on Tuesday in the metro than it does on Sunday/Monday...

Vigorous storm early next week. How quickly it wraps up will likely keep red river areas with interest. Same old issues though, too warm at the surface it seems.

38 at DFW this run, 35 at Ardmore OK Wednesday morning... if only it'd wrap up a tad earlier...

oh who am I kidding I've already been on record saying I'll probably faint if it snows...

The 0z Euro has rain on and off pretty much from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon, over 2 inches at DFW.. snow stays up in Oklahoma

[Ralph's Weather]

Looking at the 06Z GFS ensemble members, if only we were in a not so +PNA pattern, Tuesday night could be interesting. Sub freezing aloft with a strong system overhead. Could be another setup for small hail though with so much cold aloft and strong dynamics. Glad to get some coler temps and good rains though.

[Ntxw]

Models continue to inch further south with the dynamic system early next week. Too bad there is no strong surface high to provide low level cold, or it could be a big winter storm. It might be in Oklahoma. TheProfessor should get a nice snow event in Ohio from it

[TheProfessor]

Models continue to inch further south with the dynamic system early next week. Too bad there is no strong surface high to provide low level cold, or it could be a big winter storm. It might be in Oklahoma. TheProfessor should get a nice snow event in Ohio from it

I'm not sold on it yet, looks like a lack of cold air might kill us here, which would be a shame with the 1.5 inches of liquid QPF the models have been putting out for us so far.