Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
445 AM AST FRI MAR 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
MAINTAINING A CAP INVERSION OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS WILL
PREVENT THE DEEP CONVECTION TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVECTING OVER THE REGION
AND SHORT-WAVE PERTURBATIONS MOVING AT MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL
MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAIRLY
HIGH ESPECIALLY DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE
EASTWARD...ALLOWING THE WINDS TO VEER FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON. CAP INVERSION WILL PREVAIL AT 700 MB TODAY LIMITING THE
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO POOL ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW LEVELS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST PR THIS AFTERNOON.

THE CAP INVERSION WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
AS MID LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS AND MOVES OVER SOUTH AMERICA. THIS
WILL FAVOR THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE REGION FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME...OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST
THAT MOISTURE PEAKS BETWEEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...
WHEN PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES AROUND 2 INCHES. HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH SHORT-
WAVE ENERGY AT MID-UPPER LEVEL WILL FAVOR THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY BETWEEN SUNDAY AND TUESDAY.
MOISTURE DROPS AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AND
STABLE AIR MASS MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THRU THE
FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...SCT/BKN FL030-FL070 AFTER 17Z ACROSS NW
QUADRANT OF PR DUE TO SHRA DEVELOPING OVER CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN PR MTNS. ALSO...BRIEF MVFR CIGS COULD AFFECT
JMZ/JBQ AND JSJ WITH THE LOCALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS. WINDS
BLO FL050 FROM THE E-SE AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS DUE
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFT 14Z. VCSH POSSIBLE AT TIMES ACROSS THE
REST OF THE TERMINALS DUE TO TRADE WIND SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OF 10-20 KT AND SEAS OF 3-5 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL
OF 6 FEET WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A NORTHERLY SWELL
ARRIVING TUESDAY WILL REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MOST
WATERS. THEN...STRONG NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE ROUGH SEAS FROM MIDWEEK TO THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 87 75 / 30 30 30 30
STT 84 76 84 75 / 40 50 50 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
247 PM AST FRI MAR 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
MAINTAINING A CAP INVERSION OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. REMNANT OF AN
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST TONIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE A RELATIVELY STABLE WEATHER ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND OTHER LOCAL EFFECTS TO
PRODUCE A ROUND OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE SATURDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF AN
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVECTING OVER THE REGION AND SHORT-WAVE
PERTURBATIONS MOVING AT MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAIRLY HIGH ESPECIALLY
DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF
THE LOCAL FLYING AREA TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SCT/BKN LAYERS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE EASTERN TAF SITES AFTER 05/02Z AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD AFFECT TNCM...TKPK...TIST AND TISX AND POSSIBLE
TJSJ OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS INCREASE. LATEST TJSJ
SOUNDING INDICATED AN EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW UP TO 20
KNOTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 7K FEET...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM 7-15K FEET AND THEN FROM THE WEST AND VERY
STRONG ABOVE 15K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OF 10-20 KT AND SEAS OF 3-5 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL
OF 6 FEET WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A NORTHERLY SWELL
ARRIVING TUESDAY WILL REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MOST
WATERS. THEN...STRONG NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE ROUGH SEAS FROM MIDWEEK TO THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 87 75 88 / 30 30 30 30
STT 76 84 75 84 / 50 50 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
459 AM AST SAT MAR 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
SHORT-WAVE PERTURBATIONS MOVING AT MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH
TUESDAY. THEN...BREEZY BUT DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS STABLE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL FROM MIDWEEK
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POOL ACROSS THE
AREA AS LOW LEVELS WINDS SHIFT FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
RESULT PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTING THE WINDWARD AREAS AT NIGHT AND
EARLY IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST PR THIS AFTERNOON.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
FURTHERMORE...SHORT-WAVE ENERGY AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
ENHANCE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS
ESPECIALLY FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN...A SHARP
DROP IN MOISTURE CONTENT IS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AS DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS DRIER AND STABLE
AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU AT LEAST 15Z
ACROSS ALL PR TERMINALS. SHRA INCREASING AROUND NOON ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH TSRA DEVELOPING OVER AND NORTH OF THE MTN
RANGES OF PR AFTER 16Z. EXPECT MTN TOP OBSCD AND MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE
AT JBQ/JMZ/JSJ THRU 22Z. VFR ELSEWHERE WITH OCCASIONAL SHRA MOVING
OVER THE USVI TERMINALS AND EASTERN PR LATE IN THE FCST PERIOD. LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE ESE AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS AFTER 14Z. WESTERLIES ABV FL100 AND INCREASING W/HEIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OF 5-15 KT AND SEAS OF 3-5 FEET WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A NORTHERLY SWELL ARRIVING TUESDAY WILL REQUIRE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MOST WATERS. THEN...STRONG NORTH NORTHEAST
WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE ROUGH SEAS
FROM MIDWEEK TO THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 87 75 / 40 30 40 30
STT 84 77 83 77 / 40 40 40 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
220 PM AST SAT MAR 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL REACH
THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL PRODUCE A
WET WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A GENERAL DRY...BREEZY AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
ENCOMPASS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH BY MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE EAST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING FROM THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS NORTHWESTWARD ALONG CORDILLERA CENTRAL...WESTERN AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO
AT LEAST TUESDAY. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SEABOARD BY TUESDAY
WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OR NORTH. A DRIER...STABLE
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH BY
MID WEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PUERTO RICO TAF SITES
UNTIL AT LEAST 05/22Z WITH TSRA DEVELOPING OVER AND NORTH OF THE
MTN RANGES OF PR. EXPECT MTN TOP OBSCD AND MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE AT
TJBQ/TJMZ/TJSJ THRU 22Z. VFR ELSEWHERE WITH OCCASIONAL SHRA
MOVING OVER THE USVI TERMINALS AND EASTERN PR LATE IN THE FCST
PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE ESE AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS...DECREASING AFTER 05/23Z. WESTERLIES ABV FL100
AND INCREASING W/HEIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...A RELATIVELY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WINDS OF 5-15 KT AND SEAS OF 3-5 FEET. A
NORTHERLY SWELL ARRIVING TUESDAY WILL REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR MOST WATERS. THEN...STRONG NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP ROUGH SEAS FROM
MIDWEEK TO THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 87 75 85 / 30 40 30 40
STT 77 83 77 83 / 40 40 30 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
425 AM AST SUN MAR 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES NORTHWEST OF
PUERTO RICO IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS BETWEEN MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE
REGION TODAY...RESULTING IN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THEN...BREEZY BUT DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THIS STABLE
PATTERN WILL PREVAIL FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS POOLING ACROSS THE AREA...
RESULTING IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS AFFECTING MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR
THIS MORNING. THE REST OF TODAY...ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS
WILL ADVECT OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A ROUND OF
CONVECTION ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...
GOOD VENTILATION ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL
ENHANCE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS
ESPECIALLY FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN...A SHARP DROP
IN MOISTURE CONTENT IS FORECAST BY MIDWEEK AS DRIER AND STABLE AIR
MASS MOVES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THE STABLE PATTERN WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR EARLY IN THE FCST PERIOD AT PR/USVI TERMINALS.
CLOUDS AND SHRA INCREASING AFTER 17Z ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
TSRA DEVELOPING OVER WRN INTERIOR AND MVFR POSSIBLE AT TJMZ/TJBQ
THRU 22Z. EXPECT MTN TOP OBSCD ALONG ALL MTN RANGES OF PR. BKN/OVC
CLD LAYERS BLO FL100 AND RA INCREASING LATER THIS EVENING THRU
MONDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE FM THE ATLANTIC
WATERS/MONA PASSAGE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
CONTINUE VARIABLE OR LIGHT ESE INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 13Z. MAINLY VFR AT LEEWARD TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OF 5-15 KT AND SEAS OF 2-4 FEET WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN...A LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL WILL ARRIVE
ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
MOST WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE ROUGH SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 84 76 / 40 40 50 50
STT 84 76 85 75 / 40 50 50 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
125 PM AST SUN MAR 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL REACH
THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL PRODUCE A SHARP
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...BREEZY...DRIER AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
ENCOMPASS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH BY MID WEEK AND THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE EAST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT AREAS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING SLOWLY FROM THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS NORTHWESTWARD ALONG CORDILLERA CENTRAL...WESTERN AND
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DUE TO THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. PWAT VALUES WILL
STEADILY INCREASES UP TO AROUND 2.00 INCHES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SEABOARD EARLY MONDAY WILL PUSH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OR NORTH. A SHARP DECREASE IN PWAT...
DRIER...STABLE AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA...WITH SHRA DEVELOPING OVER SOME OF THE LOCAL
TAF SITES. EXPECT MTN TOP OBSCD ALONG ALL MTN RANGES OF PR WITH
BKN/OVC CLD LAYERS BLO FL100 AND SHRA INCREASING AFTER 07/02Z THRU
MONDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE FM THE ATLANTIC
WATERS/MONA PASSAGE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL CONTINUE VARIABLE OR LIGHT ESE INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS
WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 13Z. MAINLY VFR AT LEEWARD
TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...RELATIVELY QUIET MARINE CONDITION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT WITH WINDS OF 5-10 KT AND SEAS OF 2-4
FEET. THEN...A LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL WILL ARRIVE ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
MOST WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE ROUGH SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 84 76 82 / 40 50 50 50
STT 76 85 75 83 / 50 50 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
549 AM AST MON MAR 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK FRONT AND SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS WILL MOVE
OVER THE ISLANDS THRU TUESDAY. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL HOLD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALSO...A MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL...RESULT IN AN
INCREASE ON THE TRADE WINDS AND MORE STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A SHEARLINE ASSOCIATED TO A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
REMAINED OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. HOWEVER...WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST
STEERING WIND FLOW A FEW OF THEM MOVED INLAND OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF PR LEAVING BETWEEN 0.10-0.30 INCHES OF RAIN ACCORDING TO
RADAR ESTIMATES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED OVER THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS...JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FOR THE
REST OF TODAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL
AND TO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF PR. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTH AND AS A RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT DRIER
AIR WILL FILL IN...KEEPING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. AS WINDS TURN MORE FROM THE NORTH EXPECT SHALLOW
PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTING MAINLY THE NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF
THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.AVIATION...FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE FLYING AREA FM THE NW.
THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIOD OF MVFR CONDS AND SHRA THRU AT LEAST
07/22Z. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF PR. CONDS WILL IMPROVE AFT 08/18Z WHEN THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THRU 08/00Z...SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ON
TUESDAY.


&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE
TODAY...AS A LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL AND INCREASING TRADE
WINDS INVADE THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND PASSAGES. HAZARDOUS
SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT LATER TODAY. LARGE BREAKING WAVE
ACTION AND LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
NORTH FACING BEACHES OF THE ISLANDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 76 82 72 / 50 50 50 20
STT 85 74 83 73 / 60 40 40 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
202 PM AST MON MAR 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...WILL
EXIT THE LOCAL REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. A STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT TOMORROW NIGHT.


&&

.DISCUSSION...AREAS OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS AFFECTED THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WERE MOVING QUICKLY SOUTHWARD...AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT. AS A
RESULT...VERY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. LATEST COMPUTER
GUIDANCE INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES WILL DROP TO AS LOW
AS 0.75 INCHES BY MID WEEK. THEREFORE...LITTLE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER..SOME LIGHT PASSING
SHOWERS CANT BE RULE OUT MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE THE
FLYING AREA FM THE NW. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIOD OF MVFR CONDS
AND -SHRA/SHRA THRU AT LEAST 07/23Z. BKN TO OVC CELLING BTWN 025
TO 060 CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES OF PR AND THE USVI.
CONDS WILL IMPROVE AFT 08/18Z WHEN THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND A DRY AIR MASS MOVES FROM THE NORTH.
NORTHERLY WINDS AT 5 TO 15 KT...TURNING CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BTWN 08/00Z-12Z. AFT 08/12Z WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AT 10
TO 20 KT AND GUSTY.

&&

.MARINE...A NORTHERLY LONG PERIOD SWELL IS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE LOCAL AREA. AS A RESULT A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FROM
5 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST 5 PM TUESDAY. BREAKING WAVE
HEIGHTS BETWEEN 8 AND 14 FEET WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS FOR BEACH GOERS. REFER TO LATEST COASTAL HAZARDS
MESSAGE PRODUCTS FOR LATEST INFORMATION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 82 72 82 / 50 50 20 20
STT 74 83 73 85 / 50 50 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
556 AM AST TUE MAR 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ANEGADA PASSAGE TODAY.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND HOLD ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MID TO UPPER RIDGE
WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AND CONTINUE
THRU THE FCST PERIOD. BREEZY TRADE WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...PASSING SHOWERS EMBEDDED ON NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
REACHED MAINLY THE COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHERN PR AND SOME SECTIONS
OF THE INTERIOR. RAIN GAGES REPORTED MAX AMOUNTS OF AROUND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS AGUAS BUENAS AND CANOVANAS. FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY...SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE SAME AREAS OF THE
NORTHERN HALF OF PR AND FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE USVI. AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES...A DIRER MID TO UPPER LEVEL AIR MASS WILL FILTER
OVER THE FORECAST AREAS AS STRONG CAP INVERSION ESTABLISHES ABV
850MB. HOWEVER...SOME DIURNAL AFTERNOON INDUCED SHOWERS CAN STILL
DEVELOP OVER AND SOUTH OF THE CORDILLERA.

THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND ANEGADA PASSAGE THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT. FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM
THE NORTH AND TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL EACH DAY WITH
LIMITED...IF ANY...DIURNAL INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTH SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...ALTHOUGH FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSED THE ISLANDS...
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH -SHRA OVER THE FLYING AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST 08/18Z. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR CEILING WITH
PASSING-SHRA AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES.
CONDS WILL IMPROVE AFT 08/18Z...WHEN VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL
EVERYWHERE. NNE WINDS OF 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT LIKELY
THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD


&&

.MARINE...HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS...AS NORTHERLY SWELL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AND WIND GENERATED
SEAS BETWEEN 6-10 FEET PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS EXCEPT IN THE NEAR
SHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS. HOWEVER...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND
20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST FACING BEACHES OF THE ISLANDS
THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 74 82 72 / 50 20 20 30
STT 85 73 85 73 / 50 20 20 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
149 PM AST TUE MAR 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...BRISK EASTERLIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN...AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHIFTS EASTWARD.
CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROXIMITY
OF A WEAKENING FRONT LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...PREVAILED
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH RAINFALL ESTIMATES
UP TO 1.00 INCH SO FAR. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW 80S ALONG
THE COASTAL AREAS UNDER A NORTHEAST WIND FLOW AT 15 TO 25 MPH.

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...AS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES AWAY AND A SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS IN. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND THEREFORE A FRESH NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME
MORE EASTERLY FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RELOCATES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AT UPPER
LEVELS...AS THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHIFTS
EASTERLY...RIDGE PATTERN WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
ALTHOUGH A SECOND TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE AREA BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK...RIDGE PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED CAP INVERSION WILL
HOLD MUCH OF THE WEEK.

THEREFORE UNDER FRESH NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS...RIDGE PATTERN
AT ALL LEVELS AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT MOSTLY
STABLE AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SHALLOW CONVECTION EACH
DAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING -SHRA/SHRA WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAFS OF PR AND THE NORTHERN USVI UNTIL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THEN...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE MASS WILL LIMIT THE
SHRA ACTIVITY BUT TJPS/TJSJ/TNCM/TKPK CAN EXPECT FEW PASSING
SHOWERS FROM TIMES. AFT 08/23Z SHRA EXPECTED TO MOVED AWAY OR
DISSIPATED FROM THE TAF SITES. SURFACE WINDS FROM THE N TO NE AT
15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD. AFT 08/23Z WINDS EXPECTED MORE FROM THE ENE.


&&

.MARINE...HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS...AS A SUBSIDING NORTHERLY SWELL AND WIND GENERATED SEAS
BETWEEN 6-10 FEET PREVAIL MUCH OF THIS WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS EXCEPT IN THE NEAR SHORE
CARIBBEAN WATERS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. HIGH SURF
ADVISORY AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUE IN EFFECT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 84 74 84 / 30 20 30 30
STT 73 85 73 85 / 30 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
453 AM AST WED MAR 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE AN UPPER
RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD JUST WEST OF THE LOCAL REGION BY THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT IS TO THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY WHILE THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL A RESULT IN A MODERATE
TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW AND A COOL AND STABLE
ADVECTIVE PATTERN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THE
MOISTURE REMNANTS ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS...AS DRIER AND STABLE AIR
WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...
DURING THE REST OF THE DAY...EXPECT SUFFICIENT LINGERING MOISTURE
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY IF ANY SHOULD BE OF SHORT DURATION WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATIONS AS THE FAIRLY STRONG NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL PUSH
THE SHOWERS SOUTHWARDS AND AWAY FROM THE AREA.

A RAPID DRYING TREND AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
DURING THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...AS THE LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL WEATHER
PATTERN. SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...SHOULD BE FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COASTAL SECTIONS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED STREAMER-LIKE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN -RA ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS TIST AND TJSJ WITH CEILINGS AT ABOUT FL040-050 UNTIL 09/12Z.
WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVED BY 09/12Z ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA...BUT WILL CONTINUE BREEZY ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
WITH WINDS AROUND 20KT AND GUSTY FROM THE EAST TO NE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TJBQ MAY OBSERVE SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS...
SUSTAINED AT 20KT AND GUSTY AFTER 09/15Z FROM THE ENE.

&&

.MARINE...CHOPPY TO ROUGH SEAS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS AND PASSAGES THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY DUE TO WIND
GENERATED WAVES AND LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELLS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS.
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL
CONTINUE FOR ALL THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST FACING BEACHES OF
THE ISLANDS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...
MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE AND COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 72 80 73 / 20 30 30 20
STT 85 73 85 73 / 20 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
155 PM AST WED MAR 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...BRISK EASTERLIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. RIDGE
PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN...AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHIFTS FURTHER EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAILED TODAY WITH
COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S AND 15 TO 25 MPH NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS.

BUILDING SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...RESULTING IN A FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
TRADE WIND FLOW DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS WILL THEN
BECOME MORE EASTERLY FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RELOCATES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AT
UPPER LEVELS...AS THE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHIFTS
FURTHER EAST...RIDGE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS
THE AREA.

ALTHOUGH A SECOND TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE AREA BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK... RIDGE PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED CAP INVERSION
WILL HOLD MUCH OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...
UNDER FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS...RIDGE PATTERN AT ALL LEVELS
AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT MOSTLY STABLE AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SHALLOW CONVECTION EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST
OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES. EXPECT WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS. THESE WINDS COULD PUSH A FEW -SHRA OVER
TJSJ/TIST/TISX/TNCM/TKPK THROUGH THE FCST PRD. OVERNIGHT...THE
WINDS SHOULD PERSIST BTWN 15 AND 20 KTS AND GUSTY...BUT THE
DIRECTIONS OF THE WINDS SHOULD TURN MORE EASTERLY AFT 10/02Z.

&&

.MARINE...CHOPPY TO ROUGH SEAS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS AND PASSAGES THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY DUE TO WIND
GENERATED WAVES AND LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELLS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS.
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL
CONTINUE. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...
MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE AND COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 83 73 83 / 30 30 20 20
STT 73 84 73 84 / 30 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
425 AM AST THU MAR 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
AND SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD JUST WEST OF THE REGION BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN A FAIRLY TIGHT LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND A STRONG TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOMINANT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
COOL AND STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL
PATCHES OF SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A FEW LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THIS LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT EXPECT DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER AND LESSER
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE NORTH COASTAL AREAS BY LATE MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DURING THE REST OF THE DAY EXPECT LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY IF ANY
FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN SLOPES OF
PUERTO RICO. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE DURING
THE REST OF THE DAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON A SURGE OF MOISTURE IN THE
PREVAILING NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN LOW TO MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...SO FAR DO NOT EXPECT
ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AS THE REGION
WILL REMAIN ON THE SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

A CONTINUED DRYING TREND AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AND PLEASANT DAYTIME
AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SHOWERS
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS IF ANY SHOULD BE FOCUSED MAINLY OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COASTAL SECTIONS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY
ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR
AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STREAMER-
LIKE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER OR AROUND THE REMAINDER OF THE
ISLANDS AS FAIR WEATHER SKIES WILL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VICINITY SHRA EXPECT ACROSS TJSJ...TIST AND TISX
UNTIL AT LEAST 10/14Z. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 15-20KT AND GUSTY AFTER 10/13Z AND THROUGH THE REST OF
FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED A STRONG NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW UP TO 100 KNOTS ABOVE 19K FEET. NO OTHER FLYING HAZARDS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 8 TO 9 FEET AT THE
OUTER NE PUERTO RICO BUOY 41043 AND BETWEEN 9 TO 10 FEET AT THE
NEAR SHORE RINCON AND SAN JUAN BUOYS 4115 AND 41053. A LONG PERIOD
NORTHERLY SWELL AND THE DOMINANT FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP
SEAS ROUGH FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT THREE DAYS. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE AND COASTAL
HAZARD MESSAGE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN
PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 73 82 74 / 40 40 40 20
STT 85 73 86 74 / 40 40 40 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
158 PM AST THU MAR 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ALTHOUGH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE
LESSER ANTILLES...SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE OVER THE LOCAL
REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
IS TIGHTENING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT.

.DISCUSSION...
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE
WAS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. IN ADDITION...THE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. BRIEF PASSING TRADE WIND
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE WINDWARD SECTIONS OF PR AND THE U.S.V.I.
CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ALSO EXPECT LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR AND
SOUTHWEST END OF PUERTO RICO. AN INCREASE OF CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE WINDS
ADVECT ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.

IN GENERAL...A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN UNDER A MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY SATURDAY AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEK... AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RELOCATES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. IN TERMS OF RAINFALL ACTIVITY...DUE TO THE LIMITED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...EXPECT MOSTLY
STABLE AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SHALLOW CONVECTION EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIODS WITH PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
USVI AND LEEWARD TERMINALS AS WELL AS JSJ. NORTHEAST WINDS 15
TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS...BECOMING 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...COMBINED SEAS AND A MODERATE TO FRESH WIND FLOW
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS. THE SEAS ARE FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 6 AND 10 FEET WITH
OCCASIONAL SEAS UP TO 12 TO 13 FEET WERE OBSERVED MAINLY ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE AND
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO
SAN JUAN PR FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 83 74 85 / 40 40 20 20
STT 74 84 74 85 / 40 40 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
418 AM AST FRI MAR 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FARTHER
EAST ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE
SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL PLACE THE REGION ON THE
SUBSIDENCE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...THE GRADIENT IS TO THEN
LOOSEN AND WINDS ARE TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY. THIS IN TURN WILL RESULT
IN DIMINISHING EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DURING THE EARLY MORNING...OCCASIONAL SHOWER CONTINUED
TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS
OVER PARTS OF CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. RAINFALL
SO FAR HAS BEEN OF LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS OBSERVED OR REPORTED. THE UPPER TROUGH NOW EXTENDING
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
TO ENHANCE THESE SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF THE REGION...AS THE DOMINANT
NORTHERLY TRADE WINDS TRANSPORTS THE ACTIVITY OVER PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

EXPECT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING AS THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION...AND THE
MID TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE
NORTH NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.
WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND GRADUALLY
DIMINISH BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOSENS. CONSEQUENTLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING
FOR AN OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
VCSH ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. SCT SHRA IN THE MORNING
MAY ALSO CAUSE VCSH ACROSS THE TERMINALS EXCEPT TJMZ AND TJPS...THOSE
TERMINALS MY HAVE VCSH AFTER 11/16Z. SOMEWHAT BREEZY ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA WITH WINDS AROUND 10-15KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS FROM THE E TO
NE OVERNIGHT...SLIGHTLY INCREASING TO 15-20KT AND GUSTY AFTER 11/13Z
AND THROUGH THE REST OF FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...OFFSHORE BUOY 41043 AS WELL AS THE NEARSHORE BUOYS 41053
AND 41115...ALL SUGGEST THAT SEAS HAVE DECLINED TO BETWEEN 8 TO 9
FEET IN NORTHEAST WIND WAVES AND NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL. SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE SUBSIDE TODAY AND SATURDAY BUT STILL EXCEPT
A RANGE BETWEEN 7 TO 9 FEET ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECT BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH SURF ADVISORIES
AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONDITIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
AND COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO
SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 85 74 / 40 20 30 30
STT 86 73 86 75 / 30 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
154 PM AST FRI MAR 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC EAST OF PUERTO RICO CONTINUES TO BRING
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ON
SATURDAY ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST TO BROADEN AND MOVE OVER
THE AREA ON MONDAY. A JET IN A WEAK TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA MID
WEEK WILL MOVE EAST BUT THE NEXT RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY
FRIDAY NEXT WEEK. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW BUT MOISTURE AT MID LEVELS OVER PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL REMAIN SCARCE UNTIL A BRIEF
APPEARANCE MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN...BUT WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. THE
HIGH PRESSURE THAT REFORMS FARTHER NORTH ON THURSDAY WILL MOVE
INTO THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. THE
TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE SLIGHTLY ABATED THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT
TURN SOUTHEASTERLY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS MOVED BRISKLY THROUGH THE AREA BUT IN MOST
PLACES SHOWERS DID NOT LINGER LONG ENOUGH TO LEAVE MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS. THE CURRENT GFS SHOWS INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY FROM MOISTURE POOLING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE TO THE WEST AND ARRIVE IN THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND THE EASTERN TIP OF PUERTO RICO
BY AROUND 12/09Z. ALTHOUGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE DOES NOT
CORRESPOND WELL WITH WHAT IS SEEN AT 700 MB...IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO PROVOKE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AGAINST THE
WINDWARD SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO. HAVE GONE MORE HEAVILY WITH THE
NAM...ALTHOUGH THE GFS SHOWS GOOD MOISTURE ABOVE 850 MB IN SUPPORT
OF THE NAM...IT ALSO SHOWS THAT THE MOISTURE ENDS JUST ABOVE 700
MB AND THE NAM`S POPS MUST BE TEMPERED FOR THIS SHALLOWNESS OF
SHOWER-SUPPORTING MOISTURE. MOISTURE INCREASES EACH DAY THROUGH
MONDAY AND THEN MOISTURE ABOVE 850 MB ENDS RELATIVELY DECISIVELY
AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS. MOISTURE THEN RECOVERS A
LITTLE TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK BUT HAS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR MUCH MORE VIGOROUS SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE USVI AND
LEEWARD TERMINALS AS WELL AS TJSJ. NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS...WILL BECOME 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AFT 12/15Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS AT THE OUTER BUOY 41043 REACHED JUST OVER 10 FEET
AROUND 11/13Z AND BOTH WIND WAVES AND SWELL WERE MOVING SOUTHWEST
TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST. THESE ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE NORTH SHORES
OF PUERTO RICO WITH SEAS JUST OVER 8 FEET. IT IS EXPECTED THAT
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY BEFORE TRENDING DOWNWARD OVER
THE WEEKEND. NEVERTHELESS SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
STILL BE IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 83 73 83 / 50 50 60 60
STT 75 86 75 83 / 30 30 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
511 AM AST SAT MAR 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD WHILE DISSIPATES TODAY AND
TOMORROW AS AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILD OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY AND SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN SUNDAY INDUCING
A SUBSIDENCE PATTERN OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND BECOMES MORE FROM THE EAST LATE TODAY
AND SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL OVER PARTS OF VIEQUES...
CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. RAINFALL SO FAR HAS BEEN OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
INTENSITY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
ENHANCE THESE SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE
REGION. THE PREVAILING NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSPORT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD WHILE DISSIPATES TODAY AND
SUNDAY AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN A MODERATE NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY
AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT LOOSENS. CONSEQUENTLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR AN OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...SMALL PATCHES OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE
EASTERLY TRADES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION INDUCING BRIEF PERIODS
OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO DURING THE NIGHTS AND
EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH SOME LIMITED CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AND
INTERIOR PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FCST
PRD. HOWEVER...SCT-BKN CLD FL025...FL060...W/PASSING SHRA OVR
COASTAL WATERS N OF PR AND BTW ERN PR AND THE NRN LEEWARDS. FEW TOPS
FL120. BRIEF MTN TOP OBSCR OVR ERN PR DUE TO LOW CLDS AND SHRA. WND
FM NE 15 TO 25 KNOTS BLO FL100...INCR W/HT AND BACKING BCMG FM N
ABV... MAX WND BTW 70-80 KTS NR FL450. OCNL SFC WND GUST UP TO 25
KTS PSBL W/SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDOUS UNTIL SUNDAY WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
SEAS NEAR 7 FEET WITH A PERIOD FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 8 ANS 12
SECONDS. THE RINCON BUOY HAS ALSO GONE DOWN TO AROUND 6 FEET AND
A PERIOD OF 13 SECONDS BUT SLOWLY SUBSIDING. BREAKING WAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...
CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 75 86 74 / 40 50 50 20
STT 85 74 85 75 / 40 40 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
147 PM AST SAT MAR 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN/FILL THROUGH MONDAY. AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS A
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS
PATTERN WILL FAVOR A CAP INVERSION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
ISLANDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. MEANWHILE...WET TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING CLOUDINESS AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A UPPER LEVEL THROUGH JUST
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY UPSTREAM OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. BRISK EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THIS TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...TRIGGERING LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AS THEY STREAM ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POOL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT...MAINTAINING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS RELATIVELY
HIGH OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS. THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF PASSING
SHOWERS AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY DIURNAL
CONVECTION ACROSS PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ON TUESDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGE
DOMINATES THE LOCAL REGION. THIS RELATIVELY STABLE PATTERN WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...
OCCASIONAL -SHRA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FLYING AREA FROM TIME TO
TIME. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE WITH
PASSING -SHRA. ENE WINDS OF 15-25 KT WILL PREVAIL BELOW FL100.

&&

.MARINE...CHOPPY SEAS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE MARINE CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN SEAS SUBSIDE TO 4-6 FEET AND WINDS
BELOW 20 KTS. BY MIDWEEK...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE AT 2-4 FEET. THEN...
A NORTHEAST SWELL WILL INVADE THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 86 74 86 / 50 50 20 20
STT 74 85 75 84 / 40 40 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
450 AM AST SUN MAR 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD WHILE FILLING TODAY
AND TOMORROW AS A MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXPANDS OVER THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE A SUBSIDENCE
PATTERN OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING WEST SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOCAL WATERS ACROSS
EASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL OVER PARTS
OF VIEQUES... CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. RAINFALL SO FAR HAS BEEN OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.
THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST
TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND A MOIST EAST NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THE PREVAILING EAST
NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD WHILE FILLING TODAY
AND MONDAY AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A BREEZY TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE EASTERLY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TODAY AND MONDAY AS THE
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS. CONSEQUENTLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR AN OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IN
THE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...SMALL PATCHES OF MOISTURE
EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY TRADES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
INDUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO
DURING THE NIGHTS AND EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH SOME LIMITED
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO DURING THE
AFTERNOONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS FCST AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS THRU THE FCST
PRD. HOWEVER...SCT-BKN CLD LYRS FL025..FL050... FL100...W/EMBEDDED
PASSING SHRA WILL CONT TO AFFECT THE FLYING AREA DURG NXT 24 HRS.
BRIEF MVFR CIGS LIKELY AT AND AROUND TNCM...TIST... TJSJ...
TJNR...WITH MTN TOP OBSCR IN LOW ST/FG OVR ERN PR TIL 13/14Z.
LOCALLY INDUCED AFTRN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN PR...IMPACTING AREAS MAINLY EN ROUTE AND VCTY TJMZ/TJBQ.
WND BTW FL020-FL200 FM E-NE 15-30 KT...THEN INCR W/HT TO MAX WND
BTW 50- 60 KTS NR FL350. SFC WND FM E-NE 5-15 KTS...BCMG NE 10-20
KTS AFT 13/14Z EXCEPT FOR SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...CHOPPY SEAS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE MARINE CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN SEAS SUBSIDE TO 4-6 FEET AND WINDS
BELOW 20 KTS. BY MIDWEEK...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE AT 2-4 FEET. THEN...
A NORTHEAST SWELL WILL INVADE THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 74 86 75 / 50 20 20 20
STT 84 75 84 75 / 40 40 40 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
148 PM AST SUN MAR 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...WET TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO ENCOMPASS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN REGION BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LARGE
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY HAVE RESULTED IN SHOWERY CONDITIONS ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY. FRESH EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS WILL CARRY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. THIS TRADE WIND
PATTERN WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL CONTINUE TO POOL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS...MAINTAINING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS RELATIVELY HIGH ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD AREAS AT NIGHT
AND EARLY IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AND
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY MIDWEEK AS
MID LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE LOCAL REGION. THIS RELATIVELY STABLE
PATTERN WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS FCST AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS THRU THE FCST
PRD. HOWEVER...SCT-BKN CLD LYRS FL025..FL050... FL100...W/EMBEDDED
PASSING SHRA WILL CONT TO AFFECT THE FLYING AREA DURG NXT 24 HRS.
BRIEF MVFR CIGS LIKELY AT AND AROUND ALL TERMINALS...WITH MTN TOP
OBSCR IN LOW ST/FG OVR PR TIL 13/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...CHOPPY SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALY IMPROVE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHEN SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FEET. THEN...
NORTHEAST SWELL WILL INVADE THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
BE LIKELY LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 86 75 86 / 50 50 20 20
STT 75 84 75 84 / 40 40 20 20