Texas Spring 2016

[hriverajr]

well the storms around here (Del Rio) are high based....

on an unrelated note, why could we have not gotten this kind of 5H low in the heart of winter

[lrak]

I've never seen so many "tornadoes" and "hail" in the CC TX forecast before. I'm kinda nervous about tonight

[KatDaddy]

So far the Houston-Galveston areas have been spared. The first mesoscale convective system moved across Central, N and E TX earlier today skirting N portions of SE TX. Numerous showers and thunderstorms streamed across the Middle and Upper TX Coast as well as most of SE TX without severe weather thankfully but we still have a significant threat after midnight and through Wednesday morning with a severe weather and flooding threat. The SPC continues the enhanced risk across S, S Central, and SE TX. The evening's satellite and radar shows the next storm complex developing along the Rio Grande Valley which will gradually push across the southern half of TX and the coastal waters. Remain weather aware and do not drive through high water tomorrow morning should the Houston-Galveston area take the brunt of the heaviest rains.

[Ntxw]

well the storms around here (Del Rio) are high based....

on an unrelated note, why could we have not gotten this kind of 5H low in the heart of winter

Exactly! Would've been nice a few weeks sooner. Anyway have you seen the mid to long range guidance? Maybe the annual easter cold scare near the equinox. Of course at 5h anyways, the surface is always a problem this season. With PNA on it's way negative and EPO on it's way down.

[Brent]

What in the world... GFS verbatim would have frost outside the metro. and the S word in much of the panhandle

[StormChaser75]

Severe thunderstorm watches now in effect for South tx...

[EF-5bigj]

That supercell is nasty near Waco

[Ntxw]

Next round is getting underway. That big cell moving into San Saba county is tornado warned and some big hail. General storm movement is northeast while cluster is east-northeast.

[Cuda17]

Had a few claps of thunder here in Austin county about 30 minutes ago. Looks like the radar is starting to fill in. Going to be a long night. Kids will most likely be cramping our bed tonight. Sweet dreams, stay safe.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Those storms about to cross the border in South Texas looks like the boundary that will bring the main event to Houston tonight. The HRRR is all over the place. Need to see the storms fire off to get an idea of where the storms will be.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

LLJ is starting to kick up here now. Getting gusts up to 30 MPH again.

[weatherdude1108]

Messy mesoscale parameters. Per SPC:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0192
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0926 PM CST TUE MAR 08 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/S TX.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 39...

VALID 090326Z - 090530Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 39
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SVR POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW AREA. THOUGH A
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS.

DISCUSSION...BKN BAND OF CONVECTION WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
IS EVIDENT AS OF 03Z FROM PORTIONS HAMILTON/SAN SABA COUNTIES SSWWD
ACROSS SRN HILL COUNTRY FROM EDWARDS-BANDERA COUNTIES...THEN SWD
BETWEEN UVA-HDO...AND ACROSS RIO GRANDE INTO MEX SW LRD. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIST AT SVR LEVELS VARYING LARGELY AS
INDIVIDUAL STORMS HAVE RELATIVELY UNIMPEDED ACCESS TO MOISTURE-RICH
INFLOW LAYER TO THEIR SE. REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STILL RESIDES
ACROSS NRN FRINGES OF WW FROM SRN BURNET COUNTY ACROSS NRN GILLESPIE
COUNTY. PRECONVECTIVE WARM SECTOR S OF THAT BOUNDARY IS
CHARACTERIZED BY ONLY SLOWLY INCREASING MLCINH WITH TIME...AND
MLCAPE AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG BASED ON MODIFIED RAOBS AND MODEL FCST
SOUNDINGS. 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES SHOULD PERSIST OVER
MOST OF WW...WITH LACK OF BOTH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL FLOW LIMITING HODOGRAPH SIZE.

NEARLY MERIDIONAL CHARACTER OF AMBIENT FLOW ALOFT AMIDST FAVORABLE
DEEP SHEAR SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MESSY...WITH ADDITIONAL SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE BUT CELL MERGERS AND
HEAVY-PRECIP/CLUSTERED MODES PREDOMINANT. NET EWD SHIFT OF ENTIRE
CONVECTIVE REGIME IS FCST BUT ONLY SLOWLY...DRIVEN BOTH BY
COLLECTIVE OUTFLOW PRODUCTION AND ONLY SLIGHTLY OFF-SLY MEAN-WIND
VECTORS. ADDITIONAL STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SEPARATELY OVER MEX
WSW MFE AND SE-E OF MMMY...BUT CONVECTION GENERATED IN THAT AREA HAS
TENDED TO WEAKEN UPON MOVING NEWD ACROSS RIO GRANDE AND INTO
HIGH-CINH ENVIRONMENT SAMPLED BY 00Z BRO/CRP RAOBS.
ULTIMATELY...MORE CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS
FARTHER E OF WW AREA AND CLOSER TO MORE SUSTAINED/INTENSE
MOISTURE-TRANSPORT REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH LLJ OVER MIDDLE/UPPER TX
COAST. THAT WILL BE ADDRESSED WITH SEPARATE PRODUCTS AS NEEDED.

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...BRO...SJT...

LAT...LON 25999715 25849737 26029763 26079813 26239852 26249869
26359884 26389907 26899927 27059950 27289942 27339952
27569950 27689972 28080002 28469970 29339947 30229946
30949857 31179851 31389859 31809802 32039743 29519709

[weatherdude1108]

Just had about 30 minutes of heavy rain, with a few hail pieces mixed in when it started. Lots of lightning and thunder. DAMN dog won't stop panting. Keeping us up (dog).

[JDawg512]

Super electrified cluster of storms. The entire sky is lighting up. For a time it was back to back huge loud claps of thunder for a good 5 min. Power went out twice but came back on pretty quickly. I got some great video footage.

Flood warning was just issued for Travis County.

[Ralph's Weather]

7" of rain overnight here in Hideaway. Tornado warning and strong winds east of Tyler right now.

[StormChaser75]

I am about to get hit by some strong storms here...

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Well so far we are escaping the worst in Hou. Good news. Everyone continue to stay safe, looks like the main threat today will be flooding. HRRR has the low continuing to pump up moisture our way.

The HRRR has been struggling with this system no doubt, but its latest run has heavy rain starting up for Houston/SE Tx area within a few hours. I think the HRRR is quite accurate within a few hours. After that right now, im not sure, but it is showing a constant deluge for the rest of the day for SE Tx.

[jasons2k]

Some folks on the KHOU forum are calling this a bust, but that's very premature.

Bust on timing, for sure, but not necessarily on rainfall. It's definitely not over.

There is a front draped just NW of the US-59 corridor. The ULL is still well to our SW. That's pretty concerning and will set the stage for heavy rainfall to focus along it today. FWIW the setup we have this morning looks a lot like what was modeled a few days ago, with a stationary front on top of us, except it's a day later - Wednesday instead of Tuesday.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Now Severe thunderstorm Watch along the Texas coast.

[Cuda17]

^^^^^I think this SPC MD says it all:


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0195
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 AM CST WED MAR 09 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP S INTO SERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 091329Z - 091530Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...PERIODIC STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS MUCH OF SRN AND COASTAL TX THROUGH MORNING...WITH WIND AND
HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE AS WELL
ESPECIALLY OVER SERN TX INTO SWRN LA LATER TODAY.

DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD JUST
AHEAD AND ALONG AN ADVANCING FRONT/OUTFLOW FROM NW OF HOUSTON INTO
NWRN LA. THESE STORMS HAVE ONLY SHOWN PERIODIC STRONG CORES...AND
LITTLE OR NO ROTATION/MESOCYCLONES DESPITE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.
IT IS LIKELY THAT LOW-LEVEL STRETCHING IS FAIRLY WEAK DUE TO
RELATIVELY COOL BOUNDARY LAYER BELOW THE LFC. HOWEVER...A
CONDITIONAL TORNADO THREAT EXISTS GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR AND AMPLE
INSTABILITY...SHOULD FORCING BECOME MORE FAVORABLE EITHER ALONG THE
BOUNDARY ITSELF...WITH POCKETS OF HEATING...OR ANY MESO LOW THAT CAN
FORM.

TO THE S...MORE ROBUST STORMS WITH HIGH ECHO TOPS AND HAIL CORES ARE
DEVELOPING IN CLUSTERS ACROSS DEEP S TX...WITH MOVEMENT PARALLEL TO
THE UPPER FLOW IN A NNEWD DIRECTION. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR A THREAT OF ORGANIZED STORMS AS
THEY CONTINUE NNEWD TOWARD THE MIDDLE TX COAST AND POSSIBLY
EVENTUALLY PIVOTING NEWD TOWARD SERN TX WHERE MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATES PERIODIC STORMS THROUGH THE DAY. IN THE SHORT
TERM...SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR EXISTS ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COAST
WHICH MAY LIMIT THE NWD PROGRESSION OF THE S TX ACTIVITY.

..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 03/09/2016


ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...