Caribbean - Central America Weather

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cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#17801 Postby cycloneye » Mon Mar 14, 2016 5:13 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
554 AM AST MON MAR 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT AS IT
PASSES OVER THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK A
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND A WEAK TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE TROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC PULLING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
AREA. THE RIDGE BROADENS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE
WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN IT SPREADS INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. BY TUESDAY OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. MOISTURE AT MID LEVELS
INCREASES OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND THEN DIMINISHES ON WEDNESDAY.
ALMOST NO MOISTURE IS PRESENT LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...MODERATE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH LOW PRESSURE REMAINING IN
THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN. A WEAK BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY...BRINING IN DRIER AIR...WITH BETTER MOISTURE NOT
RETURNING UNTIL FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHALLOW SHOWERS NEARLY DISAPPEARED OVERNIGHT FROM
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...BUT INCREASED DURING
THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE IN THE CARIBBEAN AND THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. SOME SHOWERS BEGAN MOVING ONTO THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
PUERTO RICO AROUND 4 AM AST WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THE MIMIC
PRODUCT SHOWS MOISTURE STREAMING IN ACROSS SAINT CROIX AND FURTHER
SOUTH...AND THIS WILL SPREAD A LITTLE TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY
GENERATING GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TODAY IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN OVER PUERTO RICO...AFFECTING
THE WINDWARD SLOPES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
THERE...BUT WILL FIND IT DIFFICULT TO MOVE DEEP INTO THE ISLAND
OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL REFORM OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO DURING
THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY AS WELL. DRYING OCCURS ON WEDNESDAY AND
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND ACCUMULATIONS. SHOWERS THEN
RETURN ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS OF
TJSJ/TIST/TISX/TJPS AND COULD CREATE BRIEF MVFR CONDS AT TIMES THRU
THIS MORNING. BKN CEILINGS BETWEEN 030/060 CAN BE EXPECTED. FROM
14/16Z-22Z...SEA BREEZE INDUCED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR...IMPACTING MAINLY THE
FLYING AREA OF TJMZ/TJBQ AND VCNTY OF TJSJ. EXPECT...SURFACE EAST
WINDS AT LESS THAN 8 KT INCREASING AFT 14/12Z AT 10 TO 15 WITH
HIGHER GUSTS IN AND NEAR SHRA ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND PEAK AGAIN
OVERNIGHT ON THURSDAY FROM SWELL OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHEAST. SEAS
WILL REMAIN 5 FEET OR LESS IN THE CARIBBEAN AS GRADIENTS NO LONGER
DRIVE WINDS AS STRONGLY ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 74 84 74 / 50 50 40 10
STT 84 75 83 75 / 40 10 30 10
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#17802 Postby WacoWx » Mon Mar 14, 2016 2:01 pm

Jamaica weather question. 3/17 - 3/20

According to Weather.com, we are going to see very good chances for rain (80%), and very little sun while we are there. I am wondering if this is the type of weather that means I will be seeing storms throughout the day, or will there be chances that we will see sun (pop-up storms?)? I am not familiar with Caribbean weather patterns right now. It looks like a southwest flow, but that it about all I can see.

Accuweather says 20% with a passing shower.

Can anyone tell me what they THINK i can expect? I'm just looking for some local opinions.

Thanks.
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#17803 Postby cycloneye » Mon Mar 14, 2016 2:40 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
140 PM AST MON MAR 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL
LIMIT THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. HOWEVER...WET TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK. AS A RESULT...CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO
TIME. DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO ENCOMPASS
THE LOCAL REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LARGE
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY HAVE RESULTED IN SHOWERY CONDITIONS ACROSS
MOST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY. EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS HAVE CARRIED NUMEROUS SHOWERS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
INTENSITY OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PR.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL FORM OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO PRODUCE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...ALMOST ALL PR AND USVI WILL RECEIVED SOME RAIN OVER THE
NEXT 24-48 HRS.

OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS RELATIVELY HIGH ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AS A RESULT...ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WINDWARD
AREAS AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY DIURNAL CONVECTION
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. BETWEEN LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK FROM THE NORTHEAST
SO AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF PR. MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGE
ESTABLISHES OVER THE LOCAL REGION. THIS RELATIVELY STABLE PATTERN
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TIST...
TJSJ...TJPS...TJMZ AND TJBQ WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
FROM TIME TO TIME THRU AT LEAST 16/23Z. BKN CEILINGS BETWEEN 030/060
CAN BE EXPECTED. LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED AN EAST SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW UP TO 20 KNOTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 15K
FEET...BECOMING FROM THE WEST AND STRONGER ABOVE 15K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WHEN SEAS OF 2-4 FEET ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THEN...A
NE SWELL WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...INCREASING THE SEAS TO AROUND 4-6 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS BETWEEN LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 84 74 85 / 50 30 10 20
STT 75 83 75 83 / 30 20 10 10
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#17804 Postby cycloneye » Tue Mar 15, 2016 6:04 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
450 AM AST TUE MAR 15 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DRIFT OVER THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK. MID LEVEL MOISTURE ENDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT LOWER LEVELS...MODEST HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES NORTH OF THE
AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THEN HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE BOUNDARY OF THE DRIER AIR AND THE AIR MASS OVER
US LIES JUST TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS THIS MORNING...WITH SHOWERS SOUTHWEST OF VIEQUES AND OVER
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS
WERE MOVING IN THE LOCAL WATERS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THE GFS
SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER ONLY SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT
THEN DROPPING OFF TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE MIMIC
PRODUCT WAS SHOWING THE BACK EDGE OF THE MOISTURE REACHING PUERTO
RICO TODAY BY EXTRAPOLATION...HOWEVER LARGE GAPS IN THE DATA HAVE
OPENED UP AND IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO TELL IF THE BOUNDARY HAS
STALLED OR NOT. IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT DRYING WILL CONTINUE OVER
EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...BUT THAT SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ALONG THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL AND IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO TODAY AND PROBABLY TOMORROW TO
A LESSER EXTENT. AMOUNTS COULD BE OVER ONE INCH IN THE MOST
FAVORED LOCATIONS TODAY. ON WEDNESDAY THE LOWER LEVEL WINDS TURN
MORE NORTHERLY AND SHOULD HELP ESCORT THE BETTER MOISTURE OUT OF
THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS...EVEN UP THROUGH 925 MB...HOWEVER...WILL
REMAIN ALMOST EASTERLY HOLDING MOISTURE AT THE LOWEST LEVELS...OVER
THE AREA FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER. WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOS
GUIDANCE IS BRINGING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES...BUT SO FAR THIS HAS
BEEN PREMATURE. NEVERTHELESS AS CLOUDS THIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BEGIN TO WARM SLIGHTLY AND THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT LATE IN THE
WEEK SHOULD BRING SAN JUAN MID TO UPPER 80S BY THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UNTIL MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. NO MAJOR
FEATURES ARE EXPECTED. THE SOUNDING IS STILL TOO STABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A CAP PERSISTING BETWEEN 700 AND 550 MB.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS MOST TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 15/16Z. MOUNTAIN TOP
OBSCURATIONS AND TEMPO MVFR LIKELY WITH THE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK SWELL IS MOVING THROUGH THE OUTER BUOY AND WILL
BRING A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO THE NORTHERN BEACHES OF
PUERTO RICO AND CULEBRA. THIS SWELL WILL INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY.
UNDER WEAKER WINDS HOWEVER SEAS WILL ONLY INCREASE A LITTLE TODAY
AND TONIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE
RISING AGAIN ON FRIDAY. CONDITIONS IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 85 74 / 40 20 10 20
STT 85 75 84 75 / 30 10 10 10
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#17805 Postby cycloneye » Tue Mar 15, 2016 2:39 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
157 PM AST TUE MAR 15 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN EVEN MORE ON
THURSDAY AND REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AFTER
THAT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LOCAL EFFECTS HELPED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS IN THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
PR AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. THESE SHOWERS
WERE NOT TOO SIGNIFICANT BUT SOME MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE
OBSERVED. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED BRIEF
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MINIMAL AS WELL.

THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT ON
WEDNESDAY BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN IS VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY. THIS
MEANS THAT AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE IN PR AND THE USVI. THEREAFTER...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF UNDER
ONE INCH STARTING ON THURSDAY AND REMAINING AT OR BELOW ONE INCH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INCREASING MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY.
FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FLYING AREA. BRIEF MVFR
CIGS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ BETWEEN
21Z. VCSH LIKELY AT TJBQ AND TJPS. EAST WINDS OF 10-15 KT WILL
PREVAIL BELOW FL100. &&

.MARINE...WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KT AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT WITH
OCCASIONAL 6 FT CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT. SEAS WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN A NE SWELL MOVES INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGE. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 4-6
FT BETWEEN THURSDAY AND SATURDAY...THEN RETURN TO 3-5 FEET ON
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 74 86 / 20 10 20 20
STT 75 84 75 83 / 10 10 10 10
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#17806 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 16, 2016 5:09 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
459 AM AST WED MAR 16 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH PASSED NORTH OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT AND A RIDGE WILL NOW APPROACH...PASSING ON FRIDAY
AND BUILDING SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH OVER HISPANIOLA LATER NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS NORTH OVER
CUBA...WHILE A TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY FRIDAY. THE SAME HIGH
WILL MOVE TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. A TROUGH WILL DIG NORTH INTO FLORIDA
BY SATURDAY AND FORM A STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
BY SUNDAY NIGHT TRAILING A FRONT THAT WILL DIP DOWN TO ABOUT 25
DEGREES NORTH ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE RETREATING AGAIN. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LINES OF SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND
EXTENDING ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE HINTED OF A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA THAT IS DISSIPATING. BY DAWN VERY FEW SMALL
SHOWERS WERE SEEN ON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SOME CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF HISPANIOLA. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE THE
MOISTURE NECESSARY FOR THE FORMATION OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN
WESTERN PUERTO RICO. SINCE WINDS DID NOT GAIN ANY SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT AS EXPECTED YESTERDAY...THE FOCUS OF THE SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED TO BE MORE IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE ISOLATED OVER THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY...BUT
THE GFS STILL INDICATES SOME SHOWERS FORMING OVER SOUTHWESTERN
PUERTO RICO. THIS TIME THE NORTHERLY COMPONENT ACTUALLY GAINS
STRENGTH...FORCING SHOWERS AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN COAST. THE
DRIEST CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER THEN GAINS UNSTEADILY THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK...WITH SWINGS OF TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH UNTIL IT REACHES 1.5
INCHES ON WEDNESDAY FROM A LOW OF AROUND 0.8 INCHES ON FRIDAY.
MOISTURE BECOMES QUITE SHALLOW OVER THE WEEKEND SO STILL DO NOT
SEE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS A POSSIBILITY DURING THE NEXT 7
DAYS

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE TERMINALS. SHRA INDUCED FROM DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR/WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR...IMPACTING
MAINLY THE FLYING AREA OF TJMZ. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS BLO FL050
AT 5-12 KNOTS...BCMG NORTHERLY THRU FL100...NORTHWEST ABOVE AND
INCREASING WITH HEIGHT. SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 13Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY BUT WILL THEN
INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE NORTH
NORTHEAST. AT THIS TIME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS...BUT A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS WILL RETURN WHEN THIS SWELL...FORECAST TO BE AROUND 14
SECONDS...ARRIVES ON THE COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND SAINT THOMAS
LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 86 74 / 20 20 20 20
STT 84 75 84 75 / 10 10 10 10
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#17807 Postby WacoWx » Wed Mar 16, 2016 10:20 am

WacoWx wrote:Jamaica weather question. 3/17 - 3/20

According to Weather.com, we are going to see very good chances for rain (80%), and very little sun while we are there. I am wondering if this is the type of weather that means I will be seeing storms throughout the day, or will there be chances that we will see sun (pop-up storms?)? I am not familiar with Caribbean weather patterns right now. It looks like a southwest flow, but that it about all I can see.

Accuweather says 20% with a passing shower.

Can anyone tell me what they THINK i can expect? I'm just looking for some local opinions.

Thanks.



Anybody? Leaving tomorrow.
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#17808 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 16, 2016 11:39 am

WacoWx wrote:Jamaica weather question. 3/17 - 3/20

According to Weather.com, we are going to see very good chances for rain (80%), and very little sun while we are there. I am wondering if this is the type of weather that means I will be seeing storms throughout the day, or will there be chances that we will see sun (pop-up storms?)? I am not familiar with Caribbean weather patterns right now. It looks like a southwest flow, but that it about all I can see.

Accuweather says 20% with a passing shower.

Can anyone tell me what they THINK i can expect? I'm just looking for some local opinions.

Thanks.


Here is the Jamaica weather site that has the forecasts for the next few days.Mainly afternoon showers are expected.Enjoy your trip.

http://www.metservice.gov.jm/forecast.asp
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#17809 Postby WacoWx » Wed Mar 16, 2016 12:28 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Here is the Jamaica weather site that has the forecasts for the next few days.Mainly afternoon showers are expected.Enjoy your trip.

http://www.metservice.gov.jm/forecast.asp



This is much better than I was seeing on weather.com. Thank you so much (even if it doesn't pan out)!
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#17810 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 16, 2016 2:16 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
155 PM AST WED MAR 16 2016

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BROAD MID TO UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL
AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN TODAY...WITH
THE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR STAYING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LITTLE TO NO SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED IN THE
MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH A FEW LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS AFFECTING THE LUQUILLO MOUNTAIN RANGE AROUND NOON
AND THEN A FEW LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF PR EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AND ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE MOSTLY BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DRIER AIR KEEPS MOVING IN. MAINLY FAIR
WEATHER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BRIEF SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT
AND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF PR IN THE AFTERNOONS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO CONVECTION.

THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO GO DOWN TO
ABOUT THE 25TH PERCENTILE COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE LATEST MODELS INDICATE THAT A SMALL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE MAY BE PRESENT ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR ON
SATURDAY BUT AFTER THAT...MOISTURE DECREASES AGAIN UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. SO BRIEF SHOWERS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE WHAT IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLD TO
SCT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP NEAR TJPS AND TJMZ THRU 21Z...LEADING TO
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR. E TO ENE WINDS OF
AROUND 10 KT WILL PREVAIL BELOW FL100.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE BEEN TRANQUIL WITH BUOY 41053 MEASURING 3-4 FEET
AS WELL AS THE ATLANTIC BUOY 41043. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY AT 5 FEET
OR LESS TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 6 FEET ON THURSDAY AND UP TO 7 ON
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A NORTHEAST SWELL. MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS TONIGHT...INCREASING TO A HIGH RISK ON THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 86 74 86 / 20 20 20 20
STT 75 84 75 84 / 10 10 10 10
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#17811 Postby cycloneye » Thu Mar 17, 2016 5:01 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
520 AM AST THU MAR 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE AXIS OF A BROAD RIDGE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WILL EXTEND NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA WHERE THE TROUGH
IS NOW OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
LITTLE OR NO MOISTURE WILL BE SEEN IN THE MID LEVELS THROUGH THE
NEXT 10 DAYS.

AT LOWER LEVELS...MODERATE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE
ATLANTIC NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH
TUESDAY...SHUNTING THE LOW THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA ON SATURDAY NIGHT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE AREA WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY AND STRENGTHEN LOCAL GRADIENTS TO
FAVOR MORE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS...BUT AS IT COALESCES WITH THE
OTHER HIGH IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC INTO ONE LARGE HIGH NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN TOWARD
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FEW SHOWERS WERE SEEN IN THE LATER PART OF THE NIGHT
OVER THE WATERS AROUND PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
NONE WERE OBSERVED OVER LAND AS SKIES REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR. DRIER
AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA
TODAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT MID LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN A
RELATIVELY STRONG CAP AROUND 700 MB THAT WILL KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY
LIMITED THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN AT 850 MB ONLY AFTER WINDS AT THAT LEVEL TURN MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY. SHALLOW SHOWERS WILL THEN RETURN AND
INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. GOOD HEATING IN THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WILL ALSO TRIGGER AFTERNOON SHOWERS FROM
CONVERGENCE AT THE LOWEST LEVELS. THESE SHOWER WILL FAVOR WEST
CENTRAL PUERTO RICO TODAY AND TOMORROW...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT
TO NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO BY SATURDAY. WHEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST...EXPECT TEMPERATURES ON THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
COASTS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S IN SOME PLACES. THE GFS
INDICATES 1000-850 MB THICKNESS LEVELS RISING AFTER TOMORROW TO
PEAK ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO MONDAY MAY EVEN SEE SOME MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S NEAR THE NORTH COAST AROUND THE
GREATER METROPOLITAN AREA OF SAN JUAN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP NEAR TJPS AND TJMZ AFT
17/18Z...LEADING TO MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR OF PR. WINDS BECOMING E TO ENE AT 10 TO 15 KT AFT 17/13Z
WITH SOME SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES. WEST NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO EXCEED 80 KNOTS BETWEEN FL380 AND FL470.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS LONG PERIOD NORTH
NORTHEAST SWELL OF 13 TO 14 SECONDS MOVES INTO THE AREA. SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM 7 FEET AFTER FRIDAY WITH A MINIMUM ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 85 74 / 10 20 20 10
STT 84 75 84 75 / 10 10 10 10
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#17812 Postby cycloneye » Thu Mar 17, 2016 2:44 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
202 PM AST THU MAR 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN FURTHER STRENGTHENING THE TRADE WINDS CAP INVERSION ACROSS
THE LOCAL REGION. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS
DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN AND SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE
LOW LEVELS... LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY TRADES EXPECTED TODAY...BUT WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT AND BECOME MORE EAST SOUTHEASTERLY BY FRIDAY AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FAIRLY STRONG AND DOMINANT CAP INVERSION OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AND MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES AND OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER BY SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY...SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS RECENT UPPER AIR SOUNDING SUGGEST PWAT
VALUES BELOW AN INCH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
ADVECTION. THEREFORE CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE
TO BE LIMITED AND MAINLY ALONG PARTS OF THE EAST COASTAL SECTIONS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FOCUSED OVER
ISOLATED AREAS ALONG THE CENTRAL AND WEST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO OVER THE WEEKEND...AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER PUERTO RICO SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS
OF THE ISLANDS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL STEERING
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES
EXPECTED OVER THE U.S.VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. .

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP NEAR TJPS AND TJMZ AFT
17/18Z...POSSIBLY CAUSING VCSH...ALSO LEADING TO POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR. WINDS REMAINING NE-
EAST AT 10 TO 15 KT...DECREASING TO 5-10KT AFTER 17/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...INCREASING SEAS UP TO 6 FEET OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVERNIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY
SWELL. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. LATEST FORECAST STILL
INDICATES SEAS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...POSSIBLY UP TO 8 FEET ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS BY FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL GO INTO EFFECT LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 86 74 88 / 10 10 0 20
STT 72 84 74 85 / 20 20 10 10
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#17813 Postby cycloneye » Fri Mar 18, 2016 4:48 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
546 AM AST FRI MAR 18 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...THE AXIS OF A BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND CONTINUE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE THEN EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
FLATTENS OUT DURING THE WEEK NEXT WEEK BUT HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA CONTINUES. MID LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE VERY
DRY UNTIL FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOW PRESSURE
EXITS NORTH CAROLINA AND MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN COAST
OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS WILL PULL A TROUGH UP OVER HISPANIOLA
AND CAUSE LOCAL WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY
AND BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE MONA PASSAGE CROSSED OVER
MONA ISLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST
TODAY AND TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW SO THAT THE
NORTH COASTS OF PUERTO RICO WILL BEGIN TO SEE A FEW DEGREES OF
WARMING. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS TO REACH A MINIMUM TOMORROW MORNING
AND THEN SLOWLY RISE UNTIL THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE DURING THE WEEK NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH MOST LOWER LEVEL WINDS
WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST. SHOWERS WILL ALSO
GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN DURING THE NEXT
7 DAYS...BUT NO MAJOR FEATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 8-10
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 18/17Z. AFTER 18/18Z...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP NEAR TJPS AND TJMZ...LEADING TO MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS EXCEPT FOR SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS IN COASTAL AREAS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS AND NORTH NORTHEASTERLY SWELL ARE CLOSE TO THEIR
HIGHEST LEVELS AND SHOULD REMAIN SO UNTIL THEY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF
ON SATURDAY NIGHT. ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO COME DOWN BY 8 PM AST SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH SEAS IN THE
MONA PASSAGE SHOULD BE BELOW 7 FEET BY TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN BEGINNING THURSDAY OF
NEXT WEEK IN EASTERLY WIND WAVES AND A MODEST NORTHERLY SWELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 86 74 / 10 10 20 30
STT 85 74 85 75 / 0 10 10 20
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#17814 Postby cycloneye » Fri Mar 18, 2016 2:15 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
209 PM AST FRI MAR 18 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY STRONG CAP INVERSION AND STABLE UPPER
LEVEL ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION THOUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED AS DRY AND STABLE AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. IN THE LOW LEVELS...LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST TRADES
WILL CONTINUE TODAY BUT WILL SHIFT AND BECOME MORE EAST SOUTHEASTERLY
OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...OVERALL DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS AND THE FAIRLY STRONG
CAP INVERSION WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THEN END OF THE WORK WEEK AND
FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN IN LIMITED OR NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES AND OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS. AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY BY SATURDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND... WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

MODEL GUIDANCE AND RECENT UPPER AIR SOUNDING ALL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
LAYERED PWAT VALUES OF AN INCH OR LESS INCH DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ADVECTION. CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION
WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED AND MAINLY ALONG PARTS OF THE
EAST COASTAL SECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...EXPECT LIMITED TO ISOLATED OF SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY ALONG THE
CENTRAL AND WEST INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE WHEN AFTERNOON CONVECTION
OVER PUERTO RICO SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST SECTION OF THE ISLAND BY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VCSH POSSIBLE
FOR TJBQ AND TJMZ AFTER 18/18Z. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE EAST AT AROUND
10-15KT TODAY WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. WINDS DECREASING OVERNIGHT
TO 5-10KTS.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS MANY OF OUR
LOCAL BEACHES. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BE UP TO 7 FEET.
RECENT DATA FROM THE SURROUNDING BUOYS BOTH OFFSHORE AND NEAR SHORE
SUGGEST SEAS BETWEEN 5 TO 7 FEET OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND PASSAGES...
AND 2 TO 4 FEET ELSEWHERE. THERE IS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND FOR THE ANEGADA PASSAGE. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE MAINLY DUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDING SWELL ACTION.
SEAS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO IMPROVE GRADUALLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 88 74 88 / 10 10 20 20
STT 74 85 75 85 / 10 10 20 20
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#17815 Postby cycloneye » Sat Mar 19, 2016 5:10 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
559 AM AST SAT MAR 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY STRONG CAP INVERSION AND
STABLE UPPER LEVEL ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION THOUGH THE
WEEKEND. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED AS DRY AND STABLE
AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...LIGHT EAST TRADES WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY BUT WILL
SHIFT AND BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. ONLY VERY LIGHT SHOWERS WERE NOTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. LOCAL REGION
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST MID WEEK. HOWEVER...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY STABLE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE...NO
SIGNIFCANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VCSH POSSIBLE
FOR TJBQ AND TJMZ AFTER 19/18Z. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE EAST AT
AROUND 10-15KT TODAY WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS MANY OF OUR
LOCAL BEACHES. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BE UP TO 7 FEET.
THERE IS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
FOR THE ANEGADA PASSAGE. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE ACROSS THE
MONA PASSAGE MAINLY DUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDING SWELL ACTION. SEAS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO IMPROVE GRADUALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 74 88 75 / 10 20 20 20
STT 85 75 85 76 / 10 20 20 30
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#17816 Postby Gustywind » Sat Mar 19, 2016 6:41 am

Hi everybody :)
We just experienced the effects of a modest earthquake :eek: in Guadeloupe at 725 AM. The feature stalls at least 30 secondes but no damages apparent. I was on my bed and i feel it nicely.
I don't have any infos for the moment. Stay tuned my friends.
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#17817 Postby cycloneye » Sat Mar 19, 2016 7:46 am

Gustywind wrote:Hi everybody :)
We just experienced the effects of a modest earthquake :eek: in Guadeloupe at 725 AM. The feature stalls at least 30 secondes but no damages apparent. I was on my bed and i feel it nicely.
I don't have any infos for the moment. Stay tuned my friends.


The information about the quake is posted at the Geology subforum.

viewtopic.php?f=67&p=2501888#p2501888
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#17818 Postby Gustywind » Sat Mar 19, 2016 8:18 am

cycloneye wrote:
Gustywind wrote:Hi everybody :)
We just experienced the effects of a modest earthquake :eek: in Guadeloupe at 725 AM. The feature stalls at least 30 secondes but no damages apparent. I was on my bed and i feel it nicely.
I don't have any infos for the moment. Stay tuned my friends.


The information about the quake is posted at the Geology subforum.

viewtopic.php?f=67&p=2501888#p2501888

Glad to see you there mi amigo de verdad. :D
Thanks to you!!!! :)
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#17819 Postby cycloneye » Sat Mar 19, 2016 2:44 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
202 PM AST SAT MAR 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER ONE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO TURN MORE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...INCREASING FROM THE EAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
MOISTURE WILL BE CAPPED UNDER 800MB THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAILED TODAY ACROSS ALL
LOCAL ISLANDS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH A FEW CLOUDS WERE OBSERVED
TODAY. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS COULD STILL FORM OVER THE
INTERIOR/NW QUADRANT OF PR THIS AFTERNOON. BY 1 PM AST...TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE MID 80S ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF PR AND THE USVI.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS MAINLAND PR...WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO REACH THE USVI/COASTAL AREAS OF
EASTERN PR.

IN GENERAL...DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO RIDGE ALOFT. IN TERMS OF WEATHER
CONDITIONS...NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF THE
ISLAND AND BRIEF SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN THE USVI/EASTERN
PR DURING THE NIGHT PERIOD. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TRADE WIND
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PRD ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA AND ALL TERMINALS. SCT-OCNL BKN CLD LYS OVR PARTS OF THE
ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS ...FL025...FL050...VCSH PSBL AT TJBQ AND
TJMZ TIL 19/23Z. LATEST TJSJ AS WELL AS THE FCST UPPER AIR SOUNDING
SUGGESTS FAIRLY LIGHT AND VRB WND BLO 150....BCMG FM W-NW AND INCR
W/HT TO MAX WND BTW 70-80 KTS NR FL450. NO SIG OPERATIONAL WX
IMPACTS ATTM.


&&

.MARINE...LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL AT 4-5 FEET WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND PASSAGES
OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL EXPIRE EARLY THIS EVENING
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SMALL CRAFTS THEN SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION. SEAS UNDER 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 88 75 90 / 20 20 20 20
STT 75 85 76 85 / 20 20 30 30
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Re: Caribbean - Central America Weather

#17820 Postby cycloneye » Sun Mar 20, 2016 4:57 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
530 AM AST SUN MAR 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER ONE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...INCREASING FROM THE EAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS. FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AS A RESULT...STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. THE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PROMOTE HIGHER THAN
NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MAINLY ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF
PUERTO RICO THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY...A RETURN TO A
MORE NORMAL TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED BETWEEN 20/18Z-20/22Z OVER WESTERN INTERIOR PUERTO RICO
IN THE VICINITY OF TJMZ AND TJBQ. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS EXCEPT FOR SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS IN
COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TODAY. SEAS UP TO 6 FEET
AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 74 90 75 / 10 20 20 10
STT 84 75 85 76 / 20 20 20 10
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and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


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