From TBW this AM.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
...BECOMING WETTER THROUGH THE WEEK...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
FOCUS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE PENINSULA...INCREASING THE
THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
CURRENT INFORMATION SUGGEST THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH COULD INDUCE LOCAL FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS.
BY FRIDAY THIS SYSTEM SHOULD DISSIPATE AND LEAVE BEHIND A MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL BRING US SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
Interesting NWS discussion for GOM this week
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Rainband
Updated 
West central and southwest Florida forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay area - Ruskin Florida
1028 am EDT Monday Sep 22 2003
Currently...no convection detected across area...and also little to
no shower activity off the Florida ecent and southeast coast. Lack of activity
off the southeast and east Florida coast in a southeast flow pattern usually signifies a
below normal pop day for the west coast.
- Of today--
guess the models will end up being correct with the low probability of precipitation for
today. 12z tbw sounding did come in with a lower precipitable water...but even more
impressive was the mia sounding...where the precipitable water has fallen to near 1.3
inches this morning. Will tweak down probability of precipitation another 10% for this
afternoon...which will leave 20% interior...and 20-30% coast. Prefer a
slightly higher pop coast due to the west coast sea breeze. Broken
cirrus deck streaming down from the northwest holding temperatures from warming too
rapidly. However...forecast maxes of around 90 still look on track.
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Winds still a little above 15 kts well offshore at the Bayport
buoy...but have lowered the speeds to 10 to 15 kts Tarpon north...
and around 10 kts rest of the area.
West central and southwest Florida forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay area - Ruskin Florida
1028 am EDT Monday Sep 22 2003
Currently...no convection detected across area...and also little to
no shower activity off the Florida ecent and southeast coast. Lack of activity
off the southeast and east Florida coast in a southeast flow pattern usually signifies a
below normal pop day for the west coast.
- Of today--
guess the models will end up being correct with the low probability of precipitation for
today. 12z tbw sounding did come in with a lower precipitable water...but even more
impressive was the mia sounding...where the precipitable water has fallen to near 1.3
inches this morning. Will tweak down probability of precipitation another 10% for this
afternoon...which will leave 20% interior...and 20-30% coast. Prefer a
slightly higher pop coast due to the west coast sea breeze. Broken
cirrus deck streaming down from the northwest holding temperatures from warming too
rapidly. However...forecast maxes of around 90 still look on track.
-
Winds still a little above 15 kts well offshore at the Bayport
buoy...but have lowered the speeds to 10 to 15 kts Tarpon north...
and around 10 kts rest of the area.
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Rainband
Excerpt from Tally NWS...
WEDNESDAY SHOULD HAVE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE AREA WITH DRIER CONDITIONS. BOUNDARY STALLS OVER NC FL...&
BOTH ETA & GFS FORM A LOW ON IT IN THE GULF OF MEX...THEN BRING A
MORE EAST FLOW ON THURSDAY. I'M NOT SURE THIS WILL HAPPEN THAT
QUICKLY BUT A SMALL POP WOULD BE POSSIBLE OVER N FL...BUT MAINLY DRY
SE AL & SW GA. SOME ENERGY SHOWN IN GFS ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH...BUT NOT SURE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW THAT
QUICKLY. THEN A REINFORCING COLD FRONT PUSHED SOUTH BY FRIDAY INTO
CWA. BUT GFS CONTINUES TO HOLD THINGS UP OVER FL WITH A SURFACE LOW
& INVERTED TROUGH. EXTENDED GFS SHOWS EAST FLOW TAKING OVER AGAIN
OVER N FL WITH POSSIBLE POP.
I guess we shall see, seems there is definitely the potential for something to form. At least gives us something to talk about during this lull.
INTO THE AREA WITH DRIER CONDITIONS. BOUNDARY STALLS OVER NC FL...&
BOTH ETA & GFS FORM A LOW ON IT IN THE GULF OF MEX...THEN BRING A
MORE EAST FLOW ON THURSDAY. I'M NOT SURE THIS WILL HAPPEN THAT
QUICKLY BUT A SMALL POP WOULD BE POSSIBLE OVER N FL...BUT MAINLY DRY
SE AL & SW GA. SOME ENERGY SHOWN IN GFS ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH...BUT NOT SURE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW THAT
QUICKLY. THEN A REINFORCING COLD FRONT PUSHED SOUTH BY FRIDAY INTO
CWA. BUT GFS CONTINUES TO HOLD THINGS UP OVER FL WITH A SURFACE LOW
& INVERTED TROUGH. EXTENDED GFS SHOWS EAST FLOW TAKING OVER AGAIN
OVER N FL WITH POSSIBLE POP.
I guess we shall see, seems there is definitely the potential for something to form. At least gives us something to talk about during this lull.
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Josephine96
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ColdFront77
The upper level wind shear across the Gulf of Mexico has decreased since Sunday. As the surface cold front moves into the very warm sea surface temperature of the Gulf and does stall, like expected...then at least one of the lows that develops along the boundary my develop into a tropical system.
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Rainband wrote:Next time I get a storm..I will get out my big fan and blow it nneAmanzi wrote:I sure could use some rain here! Seems every time there is rain in the forecast it goes in the opposite direction from me
GRRR I dont believe it! Looking at the radar this morning.. the rain is to the south of me AGAIN! I just cant win
Rainband.. get out that fan and set it on the highest setting.... Im sick of crunchy grass!
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