So far though I must say the rain events have mostly been a little less than impressive this year. DFW is running a deficit through 3 months and way below 2015 (that's a tough one to match anyway). Though area lakes and ground moisture index is near to above normal so no water woes for awhile. As long as we get close to normal rains, even a little less is fine, we should fair well through summer. La Nina is coming though no doubt about that. The massive cold pool below the tropical Pacific is just waiting to upwell and usher in a new pattern regime.
You can see the Moses water level split (colder colors represent cooler, lower water level) in the tropical Pacific! As the equator water level lowers it is indicative of cooling. Eventually it will fill in with cold anomalies for the Nina.
As oppose to a couple months ago during peak of the Nino when ocean heights were high, with expanded warmth. Change is definitely afoot
This Nina will not be accompanied by a -PDO though so we will unlikely transition into severe drought at least through the next 6-10 months unlike the events that unfolded in late 2007-2009 and 2010-2012. A more subdued transition like 1983-1985, 1988-1989, and 1995-1996 more likely. Those years started with strong +PDO as this year has.
