Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
150 PM AST SUN MAR 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND
A SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. WILL CAUSE
MODERATE EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA...RAISING
THE TEMPERATURE A LITTLE BIT. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH ALONG WITH THE
LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN
FAIRLY LOW UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NO SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED IN THE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. ONLY FAIR WEATHER AND RATHER WARM ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. VERY BRIEF SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN PR...NONE OF THEM BEING SIGNIFICANT. THE WIND TURNED TO A
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH CAUSED THE
JUMP IN THE TEMPERATURES...UP TO 89 DEGREES AT THE SAN JUAN
AIRPORT.

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO THE UPPER 80S OR MAYBE EVEN AROUND 90
DEGREES IN SOME AREAS AS THIS EAST SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER LIMITED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY
WHEN A PATCH OF MOISTURE MOVES IN BUT EXITS QUICKLY...THEN
MOISTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEK...WHICH THEN
COULD CAUSE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE ESE
AT 10-20 KNOTS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT SFC OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...LOCAL BUOYS ARE REPORTING SEAS OF AROUND 3 TO 4 FEET AND
THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTS TODAY. MODERATE
RISK THEN LATER TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BE GENERALLY UP TO 5 FEET AND
WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 90 75 89 / 20 20 10 20
STT 75 85 76 86 / 20 20 10 20

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
514 AM AST MON MAR 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION AT
LEAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN A FAIRLY
STRONG CAP INVERSION ACROSS THE REGION AND SUPPRESS CONVECTION. IN
ADDITION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LIMITED AND THEREFORE MAINTAIN A FAIRLY WARM AND DRY AIR MASS WHICH
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...IT
WILL BE REINFORCED BY YET ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
WILL ENTER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A SLIGHT TIGHTENING OF THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
INCREASING EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL DURING
THE REST OF THE MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
BRUSH PARTS OF THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOME OF THE ISLANDS. BY LATE MORNING...
SKIES ARE TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REGION AS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
SKIES WILL PREVAIL IN MOST AREAS. EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS PUERTO
RICO BUT AGAIN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IF ANY WILL BE ISOLATED AND OF
SHORT DURATION. WINDS WILL GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING
TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A CONTINUED DRYING TREND AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
DURING MOST OF THE WEEK AS LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES AND OVERALL PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEK. SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED DUE TO THE PREVAILING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW AT
LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
WEEK...WINDS ARE TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND THIS IN TURN SHOULD
GRADUAL BRING A RETURN OF THE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
VCSH POSSIBLE FOR TJBQ AND TJMZ BETWEEN 21/18Z-21/22Z. WINDS
GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10-15 KT TODAY WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...LOCAL NEAR SHORE BUOYS AND THOSE OFF SHORE CONTINUE TO
REPORT OVERALL SEAS OF LESS THAN 5 FEET AND WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS THIS MORNING. EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN AT 5 FEET OR LESS BUT
EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS DURING THE DAY WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUST. FOR THIS
REASON SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN SOME AREAS. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY WFO SAN JUAN
PR. A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ACROSS ALL BEACHES OF PUERTO
RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 75 89 75 / 10 10 10 10
STT 86 77 86 75 / 10 10 10 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
150 PM AST MON MAR 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE RIDGE OVER PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE
EAST OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL
AS A STRONG TROUGH MOVES EAST CONSIDERABLY NORTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER RIDGE WILL FORM OVER HISPANIOLA LATE IN
THE WEEK. IT WILL MOVE OVER PUERTO RIO ON SATURDAY BUT RETURN TO
THE WEST THE FOLLOWING WEEK. OVERALL THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THE AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL SHIFT
INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEK. A SECOND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FORM NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK AND
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. MID LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY UNTIL LIMITED
MOISTURE INFILTRATES THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND FROM FRONTS THAT
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES WILL CREATE A WEAKNESS IN PRESSURE AND GRADIENTS
ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE OVER
GEORGIA ON TUESDAY MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY...INCREASING BOTH PRESSURE AND GRADIENTS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC LATE IN THE WEEK AND BUILDS INTO THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL WEAKEN THESE GRADIENTS AS IT PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS GOOD BUT PATCHY AND
SHALLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS WERE SEEN NORTH OF SAINT JOHN AND
SAINT THOMAS DURING THE DAY...BUT SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO
RICO DISSIPATED MID MORNING. WIND FLOW WAS SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA
AND GENERALLY LIGHT UNTIL IT BEGAN TO COUPLE WITH WINDS ABOVE THE
SURFACE WHICH WERE AS HIGH AS 20 KNOTS AT 4000 FEET. A SIMILAR
SITUATION SHOULD RETURN ON TUESDAY WITH FEW SHOWERS AND MODERATE
WINDS. ON WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL INCREASE BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
LOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE ON FRIDAY AND THEN VERY
LITTLE AFTER MONDAY. STILL THEY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 1.5
INCHES AFTER FRIDAY AND SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE FREQUENT. LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME EAST OR EAST SOUTHEAST FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD WITH LAND/SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND THEY COULD REACH THE LEEWARD/USVI
TERMINALS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE ESE AT 10-20 KNOTS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT SFC OVERNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE GENERALLY TRANQUIL AROUND 3 TO 5 FEET AND WILL
NOT INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A NORTHERLY
SWELL OF ABOUT 3 FEET WILL ARRIVE AT THE OUTER BUOY EARLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE LOCAL WATERS AFTERWARD. AT THIS TIME
TRADE WINDS WILL PICK UP SUCH THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD
BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 89 75 89 / 10 10 10 10
STT 77 86 75 86 / 10 10 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
534 AM AST TUE MAR 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HEN GRADUALLY ERODE AND FLATTEN
OVERHEAD...AS THE POLAR TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. RIDGE ALOFT IS TO THEN BUILD OVERHEAD ONCE
AGAIN BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND . THE SURFACE ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL TO RETROGRADE EASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO REINFORCE THE ATLANTIC RIDGE NOW ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAKLY INDUCED LOW LEVEL/PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL SET
UP JUST WEST OF THE AREA AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE RECEDES FARTHER
EAST...AND THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE
TROUGH WILL HOWEVER QUICKLY WEAKEN AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC AND STRENGTHENS THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS OVERALL PATTERN WILL SUPPORT INCREASING
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND ALLOW FOR OCCASIONAL TRANSPORT OF SHALLOW
TRADE WIND MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE AND PRESENT WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE AREA.
THERE WILL HOWEVER BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF EARLY MORNING AND LATE EVENING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS AND EAST SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH 22/18Z. ONLY LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. BETWEEN
22/18Z-22/22Z...SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO IN THE VICINITY OF
TJBQ AND TJMZ. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SE AT 10-15
KNOTS...WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS IN COASTAL AREAS.


&&

.MARINE...FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET AND NOT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY. A NORTHERLY SWELL OF
3 FEET OR SO WILL ARRIVE AT THE OUTER BUOY EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND IN THE LOCAL WATERS AFTERWARD. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE ACROSS THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES DUE TO LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 75 88 75 / 10 10 10 30
STT 86 75 86 75 / 10 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
143 PM AST TUE MAR 22 2016

SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY ERODE AND FLATTEN
OVERHEAD...AS THE POLAR TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. RIDGE ALOFT IS TO THEN BUILD OVERHEAD ONCE
AGAIN BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND . THE SURFACE ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL TO RETROGRADE EASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO REINFORCE THE ATLANTIC RIDGE NOW ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC.

.DISCUSSION...MAINLY FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...UNDER A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE PATTERN...LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS...
AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. A FEW LIGHT PASSING
SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL HOWEVER REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AND WINDWARD AREAS MAINLY DURING THE LATE
EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

ALTHOUGH A COLD FRON WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR LOCAL FORECAST
AREA...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED TO THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE LOCAL AREA BEGINNING ON THURSDAY NIGHT. PATCHES WILL INCREASE
ON FREQUENCY DURING DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. FEW-SCT AT
FL030 LIKELY THRU 22Z ACROSS MAINLAND PR. -SHRA/SHRA DEVELOPING
OVER WESTERN INTERIOR PR THIS AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY TJMZ
AND THE VCNTY OF TJBQ. TONIGHT ONLY LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND THEY COULD REACH THE
LEEWARD/USVI TERMINALS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SO WILL INDICATE
VCSH FOR THEM. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE E AT
10-15 KNOTS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT SFC OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET AND NOT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY. A COMBINATION OF A
SMALL NORTHERLY SWELL AND INCREASING EASTERLIES WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE INCOMING WEEKEND. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE ACROSS THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES DUE TO LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 75 88 75 / 10 10 10 30
STT 86 75 86 75 / 10 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
452 AM AST WED MAR 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL
THEN ERODE AS UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA.
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
TO TIGHTEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT...BRINGING MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. A SURFACE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS OBSERVED ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL AREAS. WINDS
WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
UNDER A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED CAP
INVERSION. ALTHOUGH MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS IN THE EVENING AND
MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA...THEREFORE COASTAL TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE NORTHERN SLOPES WILL RETURN TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S

AS RIDGE ALOFT ERODES LATE THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WORKWEEK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO POOL ACROSS THE AREA
AND THEREFORE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR TRADE WIND SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. IN FACT...LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STEADILY INCREASING MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS COULD REACH THE LEEWARD/USVI TERMINALS CAUSING BRIEF VCSH.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME FROM THE EAST AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS AFT 23/13Z. SHRA DEVELOPING
OVER PR AFTER 23/16Z MAY CAUSE VCSH AT TJMZ/TJBQ AND BRIEFLY AT
TJSJ.

&&

.MARINE...CHOPPY SEAS EXPECTED AS WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS. THEREFORE SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
DUE TO SEAS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL SEAS UP TO 8 FEET
AND EASTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 87 76 / 20 40 30 30
STT 86 76 86 76 / 20 40 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
151 PM AST WED MAR 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL
THEN ERODE AS UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA.
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
TO TIGHTEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT...BRINGING MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. A SURFACE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FAIR AND MAINLY
STABLE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SHALLOW PATCHES OF SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA GENERATING MOSTLY LIGHT
WITH AN OCCASIONAL MODERATE RAIN. THESE PATCHES OF SHOWERS WILL
BECOME MORE FREQUENT AS A RIDGE ALOFT ERODES LATE THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO POOL ACROSS THE AREA AND THEREFORE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
TRADE WIND SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE MOVING FROM THE
LEEWARD TERMINALS ACROSS THE USVI/EASTERN PR TERMINALS. THIS COULD
CREATE BRIEF MVFR CIGS PERIODS THRU THE FCST PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST AT 10-20 KNOTS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
SFC OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...CHOPPY SEAS EXPECTED AS WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS. THEREFORE SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
DUE TO SEAS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL SEAS UP TO 8 FEET
AND EASTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 87 76 87 / 50 30 30 40
STT 76 86 76 86 / 50 30 30 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST THU MAR 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY
ERODE THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. BUILDING
SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
TO TIGHTEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT...BRINGING MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS OBSERVED
ACROSS THE USVI AND THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO. TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE MID 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.

FAIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDER A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED CAP INVERSION THROUGH AT LEAST THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED
IN THE TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM
TIME TO TIME. THIS WILL RESULT IN PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD
AREAS AND SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST PUERTO RICO. AS THE RIDGE
ALOFT ERODES LATE THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO POOL ACROSS THE AREA AND THEREFORE
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR TRADE WIND SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WITH THUNDERSTORMS. IN FACT...LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUED TO INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STEADILY INCREASING
MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS COULD
CAUSE BRIEF VCSH ACROSS THE LEEWARD AND USVI TERMINALS. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BECOME FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS AFT 24/13Z. SHRA DEVELOPING MAINLY
OVER WESTERN PR AFT 24/18Z MAY VCSH AT TJMZ/TJBQ. POSSIBLE BRIEF
VCSH AT TJSJ AFT 24/19Z.

&&

.MARINE...CHOPPY SEAS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL SEAS
UP TO 8 FEET AND EASTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED. THERE IS
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE OF PUERTO
RICO.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RH VALUES AND WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH CRITICAL
VALUES LATE IN THE MORNING OR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAINS OF PUERTO RICO. THEREFORE...THERE IS
AN INCREASING TREND IN FIRE DANGER TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO RFDSJU
FOR DETAILS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 86 76 / 30 30 30 30
STT 86 76 86 76 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
202 PM AST THU MAR 24 2016

SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ERODING SLOWLY THE RIDGE. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN THE
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT...BRINGING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED TODAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ALSO PREVAILED OVER THE
ISLANDS...WITH MINIMUM SHOWER ACTIVITY OBSERVED. BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE DURING THE WEEKEND AND SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO
TRADE WIND SHOWERS AND LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER MAINLAND
PR. OVERALL UNTIL MID WEEK...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME. THIS WILL RESULT IN PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS. AS THE RIDGE ALOFT ERODES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND TROUGH ALOFT ESTABLISHES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO POOL ACROSS THE AREA AND THEREFORE
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE FREQUENT TRADE WIND SHOWERS AND
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
25/18Z. LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
COULD CAUSE BRIEF VCSH ACROSS THE LEEWARD AND USVI TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT AND OVER THE REST OF THE TERMINALS AFT 25/12Z.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MOSTLY EAST AT AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS AFT 25/12Z. SHRA DEVELOPING
MAINLY OVER WESTERN PR AFT 24/18Z MAY VCSH AT TJMZ/TJBQ.


&&

.MARINE...AS TRADE WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT
CHOPPY SEAS ACROSS THE NEAR TO OFFSHORE WATERS OF NORTHERN/SOUTHERN
PR AND ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SEAS MIGHT REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATE FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAINS AND SUSTAINED EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS ARE BETWEEN 16-20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT CONTINUES IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 86 76 86 / 30 30 30 30
STT 76 86 76 85 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
510 AM AST FRI MAR 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT WESTWARD THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS OBSERVED
ACROSS THE USVI AND THE EASTERN THIRD OF PUERTO RICO. TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE MID 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.

FAIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDER A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED CAP INVERSION THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE
TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO
TIME. THIS WILL RESULT IN PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS
AND LOCALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS WEST PUERTO RICO
TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL COLLAPSE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...AS A SECOND
TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO POOL ACROSS THE AREA AND THEREFORE THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR TRADE WIND SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
COULD CAUSE BRIEF VCSH ACROSS THE LEEWARD AND USVI TERMINALS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS AFT 25/13Z. SHRA DEVELOPING
MAINLY OVER WESTERN PR AFT 25/17Z MAY VCSH AT TJMZ/TJBQ. POSSIBLE
VCSH AT TJSJ AFT 25/18Z AS WELL.


&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THEREFORE... WIND GENERATED SEAS AND CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL
EXPIRE AT 6 AM AST EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...A MODERATE RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL BEACHES
THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RH VALUES AND WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH CRITICAL
VALUES LATE IN THE MORNING OR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAINS OF PUERTO RICO. PLEASE REFER TO
RFDSJU FOR DETAILS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 86 76 / 30 30 30 30
STT 86 75 86 75 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
155 PM AST FRI MAR 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY ERODE LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLAND AND SURROUNDING WATERS.
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MOSTLY
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. SOME SHOWERS AFFECTED THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON...THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED INVERSION WILL CONTINUE
TO INDUCE A GENERALLY FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
PRODUCING PERIODS OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD AREAS DURING THE
NIGHTS AND EARLY IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO. NOT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
ARE EXPECTED TO THIS WEATHER PATTERN UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE RIDGE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ERODE LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE
EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ACROSS THE REGION AND BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. HOWEVER...NOT
SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH 26/18Z. LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS COULD
CAUSE BRIEF VCSH ACROSS TJSJ...LEEWARD AND USVI TERMINALS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 27 KNOTS THROUGH 26/01Z AND THEN AGAIN AFTER 26/12Z. ISOLD
SHRA DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER WESTERN PR AFT 25/18Z MAY VCSH AT
TJMZ/TJBQ.

&&

.MARINE...A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE SEAS AND CHOPPY CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
BEACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 86 76 85 / 30 30 30 30
STT 75 86 75 85 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
510 AM AST SAT MAR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WHILE AN
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...CAUSING MODERATE WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS FROM THE EAST. PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN THE OVERALL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN APPROACHING PATCH OF MOISTURE HAS CAUSED
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BRIEFLY AFFECTING THE USVI AND EASTERN PR BUT LEAVING
MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING RATHER QUICKLY
AS THE GENERAL WIND FLOW FROM THE EAST IS CURRENTLY AT ABOUT 15
MPH. THE EASTERLY WINDS AT ABOUT 15 MPH ARE DUE TO THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THAT IS STILL CAUSING THE
EASTERLY WINDS. AFTER SUNRISE...THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
A BIT TO 15-20 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
THESE WINDS APPROACHING 20 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS...USVI AND ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF PR. THE APPROACHING
PATCH OF MOISTURE WILL CAUSE A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...DRYING QUICKLY AFTER THAT. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO GO DOWN FROM ABOUT 1.35 INCHES DURING
THE DAY TO ABOUT 1.10 INCHES BY THIS EVENING.

THIS PATTERN OF PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVING IN UNDER AN UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE IS WHAT IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER RANGING FROM 1.2 INCHES TO 1.5 INCHES OR SO
UNTIL WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE ERODES AND AN
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE IT MEANS THAT THERE IS A
HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN MOVING
TO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ON FRIDAY...WHICH NORMALLY MEANS THAT
THE HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AS WE ARE
IN THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS IN AND AROUND THE LEEWARD AND USVI
TERMINALS AS WELL AS JSJ THROUGH THE DAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE EAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AND OCCASIONAL
GUSTS AFT 26/13Z. SHRA DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER WESTERN PR AFT 26/17Z
MAY VCSH AT TJMZ/TJBQ.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS TODAY AND TOMORROW. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS AS WELL AS THE
LOCAL PASSAGES. HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW-PR
AND SE-PR AS WELL AS EASTERN ST. CROIX.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 87 76 / 30 30 30 30
STT 86 75 86 75 / 40 40 40 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
158 PM AST SAT MAR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WHILE AN UPPER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...CAUSING MODERATE WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS FROM THE EAST. PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN THE OVERALL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWERS AFFECTED THE LOCAL REGION
TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTED THE LOCAL REGION...MAINLY THE
EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE MAINLY LESS
THAN AN INCH. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE
STABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA PRODUCING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD AREAS DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNING
HOURS FOLLOWED BY SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN AND
INTERIOR PUERTO RICO. NOT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO THIS
WEATHER PATTERN UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WHEN RIDGE
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ERODE.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD FCST TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WIND
SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN TAF SITES OF PR...THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD TERMINALS UNTIL 27/12Z. LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING
INDICATED AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW UP TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE SURFACE TO
20K FEET...BECOMING FROM THE WEST AND STRONGER ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS TODAY AND TOMORROW. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS AS WELL AS THE
LOCAL PASSAGES. HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW-PR
AND SE-PR AS WELL AS EASTERN ST. CROIX.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 87 76 87 / 30 30 30 20
STT 75 86 75 86 / 40 40 30 20

[cycloneye]

The 2016 Caribbean Hurricane Awareness Tour with the Hurricane Hunter will be from April 11 thru the 16.Tortola and Ponce,Puerto Rico will be the places it will go this year.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
534 AM AST SUN MAR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WESTWARD TODAY AND
MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL BE
ABSORBED BY A SECOND TROUGH WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. AS THIS FEATURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD...ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH WILL ESTABLISH ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BRIEF
SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SOME OF THE SHOWERS AFFECTED PORTIONS OF EASTERN PUERTO
RICO AS WELL AS THE USVI...LEAVING MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS SO FAR.
THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE
WIND WAS MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

STABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDER MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME. THIS WILL RESULT IN PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS AND LOCALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS WEST
PUERTO RICO TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL COLLAPSE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...AS A SECOND
TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO POOL ACROSS THE AREA AND THEREFORE THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR TRADE WIND SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY POSSIBLY.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH PASSING SHOWERS IN AND AROUND THE LEEWARD AND USVI
TERMINALS AS WELL AS JSJ THROUGH THE DAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE EAST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AND
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AFT 27/13Z. SHRA DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER WESTERN
PR AFT 27/17Z MAY VCSH AT TJMZ/TJBQ.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET AND WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. NEARSHORE...SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 4
AND 6 FEET. THE FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
ROUGH AND CHOPPY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. MODERATE
TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
BEACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 85 75 / 30 20 20 30
STT 87 76 87 76 / 40 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
143 PM AST SUN MAR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH MONDAY.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL BE ABSORBED BY
A SECOND TROUGH WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
BY THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS
EASTWARD...ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH WILL ESTABLISH ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ONCE AGAIN...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED
IN THE TRADE WINDS AFFECTED THE LOCAL REGION TODAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WERE NOTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...LATEST SATELITE IMAGES WERE SHOWING AN AREA OF DRIER
AIR APPROACHING THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM THE EAST. THIS AREA OF
DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN LESS CLOUD COVERAGE AND LESS SHOWER
ACTIVITY. THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY
TO CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE A STABLE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WINDWARD AREAS DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNING HOURS
FOLLOWED BY SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR
PUERTO RICO. NOT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO THIS WEATHER
PATTERN UNTIL MID WEEK WHEN RIDGE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO ERODE. AS
THE UPPER RIDGE ERODES...MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION...RESULTING IN A PATTERN MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...A DRY AIR MASS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
IS EXPECTED TO CREATE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA TONIGHT. ONLY VICINITY SHRA ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND LEEWARD TERMINAL UNTIL 28/16Z. AFTER 28/16Z SOME
CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR PR. AN
EASTERLY WIND FLOW AT 10 TO 15KT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...INCREASING AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN THE MORNING

&&

.MARINE...LOCAL BUOYS ARE SHOWING SEAS BETWEEN 5-6 FEET.
HOWEVER...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUES IN EFFECT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 85 75 87 / 20 20 30 30
STT 76 87 76 87 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
501 AM AST MON MAR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...KEEPING LOCAL AREA FAIRLY STABLE. THEN...HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT FLATTENS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...DESTABILIZING THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GENERALLY STABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LESS TRADE WIND SHOWERS
ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT KEEP
A DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS OVERHEAD. THEN...MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...FAVORING
THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. SURFACE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH GRADUALLY AND SHIFT FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER EAST.
DAYTIME SEA BREEZES AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES WILL DOMINATE THE
LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS...RESULTING IN SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER
WESTERN PR EACH AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE
TRADES WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS IN THE WINDWARD
AREAS AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN JUST
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...KEEPING THE CONDITIONS
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD. HOWEVER...-SHRA IN TRADE WINDS COULD BRIEFLY AFFECT
TNCM...TKPK...USVI AND EASTERN PR TERMINALS. -SHRA/SHRA EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN INTERIOR PR IN THE AFTERNOON... IMPACTING
MAINLY THE FLYING AREA TJMZ. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FM THE
EAST AT 15-20 KNOTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...CHOPPY SEAS OF 5-8 FEET CONTINUES ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL DIMINISH GRADUALLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SEAS
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 3-5 FEET MOST THE WEEK. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE ANTICIPATED FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 88 75 / 20 30 30 40
STT 86 74 85 74 / 20 30 30 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1256 PM AST MON MAR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL KEEP THE LOCAL ISLANDS UNDER AN STABLE WEATHER PATTERN. THE
RIDGE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO ERODE RAPIDLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING MORE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE REGION. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...INCREASING THE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF LESS MOISTURE CONTENT MOVED ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN LAST NIGHT. THIS GENERAL DRY AIR MASS PRODUCED
MUCH LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY THAN PREVIOUS DAYS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. IN FACTS...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS MOSTLY ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS DETECTED OVER LAND AREAS SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE LOCAL REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH TUESDAY PRODUCING A RELATIVELY STABLE
WEATHER. THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY ERODE LATE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH SHIFTING FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AS THE UPPER
RIDGE ERODES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY INCREASING EVEN MORE
THE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOCAL FLYING AREA THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SOME CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR PR. AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW AT 10
TO 15KT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...INCREASING AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS AFTER 29/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...CHOPPY SEAS OF 5-7 FEET CONTINUES ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL DIMINISH GRADUALLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SEAS
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 3-5 FEET MOST THE WEEK. NO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 88 75 88 / 30 30 40 40
STT 74 85 74 85 / 30 30 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
441 AM AST TUE MAR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO POOL
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING OVER THE AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...ENHANCING SOMEWHAT THE AFTERNOON
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO. UPPER RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WETTER TRADE WINDS COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
A GROUP OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS APPROACHING THE ISLANDS FROM THE
EAST. AS A RESULT...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE USVI AND THE EASTERN THIRD PR THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER WESTERN INTERIOR
AND NORTHWEST PR IN THE AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHEN
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES UP TO 1.5 INCHES...10-20% ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MARCH. IN ADDITION...CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY INCREASES AS UPPER
TROUGH MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. SURFACE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 10-15 MPH
AND SHIFT FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
FARTHER EAST. AT THIS TIME...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
APPEARS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD THIS WEEK. THEREFORE...EXPECT
SOME ENHANCEMENT IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN
PR WHERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...
KEEPING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THE REST OF THE WEEK.
CONDITIONS WILL START TO DRY OUT SLOWLY DURING THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT FROM TIME TO
TIME THE NRN LEEWARD...USVI AND EASTERN PR TERMINALS. SCT/BKN CLOUDS
BETWEEN FL025-FL060 POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS. AFTERNOON...SHRA EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NW QUADRANT OF PR...IMPACTING MAINLY THE FLYING
AREA OF TJBQ/TJMZ. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FM THE EAST AT 10-
20 KNOTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT
4 TO 6 FEET TODAY. SEAS WILL RANGE GENERALLY BETWEEN 3-5 FEET THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL BE AT 10-20 KT AT MOST OF THE WATERS.
NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 88 75 / 30 40 40 20
STT 86 75 85 74 / 40 40 40 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
210 PM AST TUE MAR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY ERODE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BUILD WEST OF PUERTO RICO BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER UPPER
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN DURING THE
WEEKEND. AT LOW LEVEL...A SURFACE DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SURFACE TROUGH WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVED
OVER THE ISLANDS...PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS MOISTURE WILL EXIT THE AREA DURING
THE EVENING HOURS...BUT ANOTHER PATCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...BRIEF PASSING
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY THE WINDWARD SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.V.I. TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUILD TO THE WEST OF PUERTO RICO BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FORM OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
IN ADDITION...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DOWNWIND FROM THE
ISLANDS OF U.S.V.I. AND FROM THE YUNQUE RAINFOREST.

AT THIS TIME...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE
MOST ACTIVE PERIOD THIS WEEK. THEREFORE...EXPECT SOME ENHANCEMENT
IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN PR WHERE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...
KEEPING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THE REST OF THE WEEK.
ALTHOUGH...UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED DURING THE
WEEKEND...MODEL GUIDANCE ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE
IS SUGGESTED BY THE WEEKEND.

&&
.AVIATION...SCT/BKN CLOUDS BETWEEN FL025-FL060 POSSIBLE WITH
SHOWERS. SHRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NW QUADRANT OF
PR...IMPACTING MAINLY THE FLYING AREA OF TJBQ/TJMZ. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FM THE EAST AT 10- 20 KNOTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 4
TO 6 FEET TODAY. SEAS WILL RANGE GENERALLY BETWEEN 3-5 FEET
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL BE AT 10-20 KT AT MOST OF
THE WATERS. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 88 75 87 / 40 40 20 20
STT 75 85 74 85 / 40 40 30 30