2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF at 240 hours has more hints.

[cycloneye]

The date of the GFS upgrade changed to May 11 instead of May 17.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification ... s_gdas.htm

Effective on or about Wednesday May 11, 2016, beginning with the

1200 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) run, the National Centers

for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) will upgrade the GFS

Analysis and Forecast System as follows:



- Changes to the data assimilation components

- Changes to the model components

- Addition of hourly gridded output through 120 hours

- Addition of five layers in the upper stratosphere in gridded

output

- Addition of new product fields

- Product removals

[cycloneye]

Comments from NHC/TAFB about the GFS Paralell upgrade.They have mainly high marks.Scroll down to page 31.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/impdoc/GFS ... al2016.pdf

Comments from NHC and TAFB
• GFSP has mostly improved TC track and intensity forecasts in comparison to current GFS.

• GFSP in general handles gap wind events a little better than the current GFS, especially at longer time ranges.

• In comparison to the current GFS, the GFSP has a higher POD for TC genesis in both basins and a lower FAR in the Atlantic, but a higher FAR in the east Pacific – so overall the new GFS is better at predicting genesis.

• Based on limited cases with archived operational GFS on 1° grids and the retrospectives (GFSP) on 0.5° degree grids

• Results were a mixed bag, but the GFSP seemed to have an advantage at longer lead times

• Since the impact of the GFSP on the HWRF and GFDL hurricane models remains unknown, NHC cannot endorse this implementation. However, NHC does not oppose it.

[TheStormExpert]

From Michael Lowry with TWC via Twitter concerning something south of Bermuda next week.

Michael Lowry
@MichaelRLowry

For the tropical enthusiasts, not a huge signal but maybe (?) something to watch south of Bermuda next week

Crown Weather.com
@crownweather

@MichaelRLowry Interesting b/c I hv 1992 & 1973 as psbl analogs 2 this season & both had a April trop/sub-trop system nr 25N/65W.

[cycloneye]

A new global model? (PWS) Many questions about this but is interesting to say the least.

TV maker Panasonic says it has developed the world’s best weather model
The company says it has beaten the GFS for a while and now equals the ECMWF

Excerpt of articule.

Large, multinational electronics company Panasonic now wants to crash the party. In an exclusive interview with Ars, Neil Jacobs, the chief scientist for Panasonic Weather Solutions, said the company has been running its own global model for several years on an 11,000-core supercomputer. And that PWS model, he said, has not only been outperforming the GFS model but has become competitive with the gold-standard ECMWF model. "We started the global model development in 2008 and finally got to the point where we were outperforming ECMWF by late last year," Jacobs said.

http://arstechnica.com/science/2016/04/ ... her-model/

[wxman57]

I see that Ryan Maue is running verification of the upgraded GFS. He's finding little or no improvement, or even that it's a bit worse at times than the current GFS. That's by comparing the projected 500mb pattern, of course. Who knows, maybe it will be vastly improved as far as TC. I kind of doubt that, though. If it can't get the 500mb pattern right then it will not be able to forecast TCs any better.

[cycloneye]

I see that Ryan Maue is running verification of the upgraded GFS. He's finding little or no improvement, or even that it's a bit worse at times than the current GFS. That's by comparing the projected 500mb pattern, of course. Who knows, maybe it will be vastly improved as far as TC. I kind of doubt that, though. If it can't get the 500mb pattern right then it will not be able to forecast TCs any better.

Here is the graphic from Maue.Is losing pretty big right now to ECMWF on both the parallel and operational.Let's see if things get better after the May 11 operational upgrade.

@RyanMaue · 8m8 minutes ago

Bumpy start for GFS-upgrade evaluation
ECMWF well out in front of GFS operational & upgrade candidate.

[gatorcane]

Last couple runs of the GFS show something forming in the SW Atlantic and retrograding westward, in the long-range. Kindaof of reminds me of the setup that spawned Ana last year, though Ana formed a couple of weeks later and further west. Doubt it will happen but not completely out of the question something subtropical tries to get going around that area given the possible 1992 analog year:

[gatorcane]

Long-range GFS showing something forming in the EPAC west of Panama the past several runs

[stormwise]

Would not trust the GFS past 24hrs

[Darvince]

24 hours what

But anyway it's time for the EPAC hype train that consists of myself and YE

[gatorcane]

CMC on board with EPAC system but it develops much sooner than the GFS so I am skeptical.

[Kingarabian]

Much weaker on the last GFS run.

[cycloneye]

Last three runs it has a TS/Hurricane status system but is still very long range.Ghost or for real? I would wait to see if ECMWF has it to be on board.

[Kingarabian]

GFS keeps pushing back development in the long range. Classic symptoms of a ghost.

[stormwise]

Tbo i expect a slow epac with a very weak monsoon this season and zilch out in the cpac. Atl to fire up.

[cycloneye]

GFS dropped it.

[cycloneye]

Maybe something subtropical forms in Central Atlantic? UKMET is showing it.


MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 23.04.2016

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 25.8N 59.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.04.2016 60 25.8N 59.2W 1006 29
0000UTC 26.04.2016 72 27.2N 53.6W 1001 39
1200UTC 26.04.2016 84 29.5N 47.1W 992 48
0000UTC 27.04.2016 96 30.9N 42.9W 986 49
1200UTC 27.04.2016 108 30.6N 40.5W 991 40
0000UTC 28.04.2016 120 29.7N 37.7W 996 38
1200UTC 28.04.2016 132 29.2N 34.9W 999 33
0000UTC 29.04.2016 144 29.2N 33.5W 1003 35

[crownweather]

What is the link for the text output for the UKMET model that you're using. I want to change my bookmark as the one I'm using doesn't contain the forecast pressure/wind speed.

Thanks,

Maybe something subtropical forms in Central Atlantic? UKMET is showing it.


MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 23.04.2016

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 25.8N 59.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.04.2016 60 25.8N 59.2W 1006 29
0000UTC 26.04.2016 72 27.2N 53.6W 1001 39
1200UTC 26.04.2016 84 29.5N 47.1W 992 48
0000UTC 27.04.2016 96 30.9N 42.9W 986 49
1200UTC 27.04.2016 108 30.6N 40.5W 991 40
0000UTC 28.04.2016 120 29.7N 37.7W 996 38
1200UTC 28.04.2016 132 29.2N 34.9W 999 33
0000UTC 29.04.2016 144 29.2N 33.5W 1003 35

[Alyono]

Tbo i expect a slow epac with a very weak monsoon this season and zilch out in the cpac. Atl to fire up.

You are misteading the sst plots and not looking at dynamical models. Ec is going for an active epac season. May not have as many storms forming in the cpac but there should be many moving into the cpac