Texas Spring 2016

[Ntxw]

Yeah and the main difference was the storm in March was embedded in a line with the leading edge storm with the big hail though egg to golfball size was dominant. Today's was your classic long tracking supercell single storm. Those are the prolific baseball+ producers. It was laying down big hail starting in Bowie and just fed off the outflow boundary. Again luckily it was elevated otherwise it might have had tornados with it.

[TheProfessor]

Hail is probably one of my least favorite severe weather modes, my house has a lot of windows and being in two golf ball sized hail storms (one of them at night) The sound is quite scary. My Aunt and Uncle lives in Wylie, hopefully their house wasn't badly damaged.

[Ntxw]

All guidance and the wpc/cpc is now forecasting a flooding rain potential. 2007 has become the top dog analog. Looks like flood watches may be needed in the coming days for a large portion of Texas. With some areas possibly getting (potentially) 10-15" over the next month or so will need to watch the Texoma spillway. Heck someone may get 10" over a few days later this weekend.

[TheProfessor]

It's finally going to be dry here, can't wait to soak in some 70's

[gboudx]

Update from jeff:

Active weather period tonight into Wednesday.

Weak surface boundary has pushed off the coast this morning per surface winds out of the NE. Dewpoints not showing much change across the boundary until one gets north of I-10 where they drop into the mid 60’s. Still plenty of moisture to work with, and feel the models were a bit overdone in the drying of the low levels. Appears a short wave disturbance is already approaching from the SW with radar showing eh formation of showers between San Antonio and Matagorda Bay drifting ENE. This feature could bring rain into our western and southwestern counties this afternoon.

Much stronger short wave defined over southern New Mexico will eject across TX starting later this afternoon and into Wednesday. Meso scale models show a decent amount of thunderstorm development with this feature over SW TX by later this afternoon and bring a complex of storms SE into SE TX overnight. TX TECH and HRRR are fairly fastest and bring the storms toward the area in the midnight to 300am time period. Would expect these storms to be elevated above the near surface frontal layer which should help reduce any significant severe threat…however elevated instability could be enough to produce a few damaging hail reports.

Main threat continues to point toward heavy rainfall as moisture pools in the region between the coast and roughly US 59. PWS rise to near 1.8 inches this evening and this coupled with the potential for trailing short wave energy along a near coastal boundary into Wednesday morning points toward a period of heavy rainfall. Meso models are showing the initial line of storms moving quickly across much of the region, but slowing along the US 59/coastal counties corridor Wednesday morning. Not sure if this will happen or if the complex will be organized enough to blow right on off the coast. Something to keep an eye on for Wednesday morning.

Rainfall amounts will average 1-2 inches across the region with isolated totals of 3-4 inches along and south of US 59.

Thursday-Friday:
Short wave ridging will help to clear out the skies and post frontal air mass will be fairly dry for this time of year. Enjoy as tis break in the active weather will be short lived.

Weekend-Early Next Week:
Longer range models coming into to good agreement on a powerful upper level storm system to move into the SW US and slow down…possibly stalling this weekend into early next week. Waves of upper level lift and energy will eject out of this feature and into TX starting Saturday while strong warm air advection off the Gulf of Mexico transpires over much of TX. Moisture levels will greatly deepen and the air mass looks saturated by late Saturday with potential for showers and even thunderstorms moving south to north off the Gulf. Hard to time disturbances will eject across the state during this period with several rounds of thunderstorms. Indicators are pointing toward a potentially significant QPF event, but where the highest QPF may occur is still too soon to determine. Severe weather will also be likely with this system across much of TX…especially Sunday-Tuesday.

[Texas Snowman]

Interesting write up on the April 12, 1945 F5 tornado that devastated Antlers, Okla. about an hour to the northeast of my home:

http://www.coryellroofing.com/the-antle ... ign=buffer

[Ntxw]

Great read Texas Snowman! Hard to believe Texas has not been hit by an official F5/EF5 in 19 years. Jarrell 1997 was the last.

[Ntxw]

Looks like the next PDO reading will again be very positive. Only a handful years were accompanied by La Nina and +PDO regimes. Using both ERSSTv3 and v4 1983-1984, 1984-1985, and 1995-1996 are the three events with such criteria. 1984-1985 was a second year Nina.

[TheProfessor]

I saw this posted on another forum and had a laugh, then I remember it might get that hot for a day or two this Summer (hopefully not more than that if at all)


photo hosting


photo sharing

[Ntxw]

Don't even Joke like that you will give Tireman4 flashbacks of summer 2011

[weatherdude1108]

[weatherdude1108]

Rain is coming!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
326 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
AREA RADAR DATA SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION ONGOING FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AS OF 19Z. ELSEWHERE...
CONVECTION HAS TEMPORARILY DECREASED...WITH THE LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE DATA SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. LATE AFTERNOON
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO SHOW A STATIONARY FRONT FROM NEAR KCZT
TO K66R.

FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WE EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND
OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE. AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...IT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD WITH THE ABOVE
MENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT IN THE REGION. SPC CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE CURRENT OUTLOOK. MOST
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
BECOME SURFACE-BASED. WHILE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO NEAR THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
REMAIN UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING.
GIVEN ELEVATED NATURE OF STORMS...LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. FOR THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...CONVECTION
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AS DAYTIME HEATING DECREASES...THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT SHOULD ALSO DECREASE. THE FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION...WE/LL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF
RAINFALL ACROSS MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN
U.S. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH THIS
FEATURE AND WE EXPECT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHEN RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE FAVORED AS THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
WEIGH HEAVILY ON WHEN THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. FOR
NOW...WE HAVE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
WHILE SOME SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE...CURRENT THINKING IS THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A GREATER CONCERN. THE UPPER LOW
IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD BRING A
DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

[Tireman4]

Don't even Joke like that you will give Tireman4 flashbacks of summer 2011

Worst. Summer. Ever. Ughhh!!@

[Texas Snowman]

Huge hailstorm rolling across portions of San Antonio tonight...

[Texas Snowman]

@spotternetwork -- Spotr 4 miles N of CARRIZO SPRINGS, TX @ 02:46AM UTC Hail (2.00")>-Copious amounts of quarter and and golf ball sized hail, some larger.

[weatherdude1108]

My brother in San Antonio said he just had golf ball size hail. Biggest he has seen in years. He was going out to check his car for damage. Lives just north of the airport on north side of town.

[TheAustinMan]

I believe this is from the Terrell Heights subdivision in San Antonio.

[South Texas Storms]

Yeah there have been several reports of very large hail across San Antonio as a severe storm moved through about an hour ago. Tennis ball size hail passed about 15 miles to the south of my family's house on the north side of town. My dad said he got about marble size. My family really dodged a bullet tonight.

[weatherdude1108]

I believe this is from the Terrell Heights subdivision in San Antonio.

Nuts!

[weatherdude1108]

Rain with thunder and lightning around here. Dog freaking out panting and drooling as I type this. She has never liked storms, but i swear she is getting worse about them as she gets older.