Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
- Andrew92
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 3247
- Age: 41
- Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 12:35 am
- Location: Phoenix, Arizona
Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
CSU/Phil Klotzbach just came with their 2016 forecast today, with 12/5/2 the prediction from here on out. There were six analog years given, most all of which tie in some way to how this could play out.
1941 was, I think, an El Nino year. Nonetheless, a homegrown major hurricane still pounded Texas, and Florida took a hit as well. Unusual for an El Nino (if I am correct) was a major hurricane hitting Central America.
1973 was a La Nina year, but behaved in a multitude of ways like an El Nino. The Atlantic was quiet and the EPAC had one of its most powerful hurricanes in history, Ava. However, this year has puzzled me for a long time. It wasn't one of those where the EPAC MDR was warmer than normal. Maybe someone can go over why a solid La Nina had such a reversal in what would be normally expected in a hurricane season. Also noteworthy, this is the only analog with no potentially significant US landfalling hurricane, or any hurricane for that matter.
1983 and 1992 were no surprises. The setup of potentially warm waters in the EPAC MDR is a common forecast, and that happened exactly in these two years. But that didn't stop Alicia from sneaking up quickly on Texas, or Andrew beating the odds from a tropical wave in hostile conditions to become one of the costliest hurricanes in history.
1998 is interesting in the sense that it came, like 2016, off a strong and stubborn El Nino event. La Nina just took a while to flex itself. Maybe that accounts for an active EPAC and quiet Atlantic early on, and then a reversal around the peak of the season? Georges and Mitch were the big ones that year in the Caribbean and Central America, though Georges also later hit Mississippi as a decent hurricane. Bonnie was also noteworthy that year in North Carolina.
2003 was somewhat warm-neutral, and other than Fabian and Isabel, that year just seems like more could have easily happened despite all the activity. The Caribbean only had one hurricane (and barely) in Claudette, and other than Claudette and Erika, there were no hurricanes in the Gulf either. Isabel was by all rights the big season-maker when it pounded North Carolina and points inland. Fabian just managed to pound Bermuda on its way out to sea. And would Juan have caused as much damage if it hadn't hit Halifax as directly as it did? Perhaps, given how infrequently Nova Scotia is hit by hurricanes that strong, but I have some doubts about that.
So, if 2016 resembles these years, it seems like the Caribbean might be able to sneak a hurricane, maybe a major, but probably not a lot more than that. But the US absolutely cannot let its guard down. As mentioned above, only 1973 didn't feature a hurricane reaching the US, or a major hurricane making landfall anywhere from the Atlantic. One thing not mentioned is that the Gulf, from the Mississippi River Delta longitude westward, had at least one hurricane in each of these years as well. (1973 did see Brenda hit Mexico, albeit in a very unusual location.) I would therefore be quite surprised to not see any hurricanes in that region at all in 2016, if this is to be believed.
But, it will be interesting to see how it all plays out!
-Andrew92
CSU/Phil Klotzbach just came with their 2016 forecast today, with 12/5/2 the prediction from here on out. There were six analog years given, most all of which tie in some way to how this could play out.
1941 was, I think, an El Nino year. Nonetheless, a homegrown major hurricane still pounded Texas, and Florida took a hit as well. Unusual for an El Nino (if I am correct) was a major hurricane hitting Central America.
1973 was a La Nina year, but behaved in a multitude of ways like an El Nino. The Atlantic was quiet and the EPAC had one of its most powerful hurricanes in history, Ava. However, this year has puzzled me for a long time. It wasn't one of those where the EPAC MDR was warmer than normal. Maybe someone can go over why a solid La Nina had such a reversal in what would be normally expected in a hurricane season. Also noteworthy, this is the only analog with no potentially significant US landfalling hurricane, or any hurricane for that matter.
1983 and 1992 were no surprises. The setup of potentially warm waters in the EPAC MDR is a common forecast, and that happened exactly in these two years. But that didn't stop Alicia from sneaking up quickly on Texas, or Andrew beating the odds from a tropical wave in hostile conditions to become one of the costliest hurricanes in history.
1998 is interesting in the sense that it came, like 2016, off a strong and stubborn El Nino event. La Nina just took a while to flex itself. Maybe that accounts for an active EPAC and quiet Atlantic early on, and then a reversal around the peak of the season? Georges and Mitch were the big ones that year in the Caribbean and Central America, though Georges also later hit Mississippi as a decent hurricane. Bonnie was also noteworthy that year in North Carolina.
2003 was somewhat warm-neutral, and other than Fabian and Isabel, that year just seems like more could have easily happened despite all the activity. The Caribbean only had one hurricane (and barely) in Claudette, and other than Claudette and Erika, there were no hurricanes in the Gulf either. Isabel was by all rights the big season-maker when it pounded North Carolina and points inland. Fabian just managed to pound Bermuda on its way out to sea. And would Juan have caused as much damage if it hadn't hit Halifax as directly as it did? Perhaps, given how infrequently Nova Scotia is hit by hurricanes that strong, but I have some doubts about that.
So, if 2016 resembles these years, it seems like the Caribbean might be able to sneak a hurricane, maybe a major, but probably not a lot more than that. But the US absolutely cannot let its guard down. As mentioned above, only 1973 didn't feature a hurricane reaching the US, or a major hurricane making landfall anywhere from the Atlantic. One thing not mentioned is that the Gulf, from the Mississippi River Delta longitude westward, had at least one hurricane in each of these years as well. (1973 did see Brenda hit Mexico, albeit in a very unusual location.) I would therefore be quite surprised to not see any hurricanes in that region at all in 2016, if this is to be believed.
But, it will be interesting to see how it all plays out!
-Andrew92
0 likes
Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
1973 is definitely a head scratcher. La Nina's are usually generous in Atlantic especially the bigger ones, and 1973 was the mother of all Nina's (-1.9C holds the record). I don't even think shear was that prevalent then, was it?
0 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- Hurricaneman
- Category 5
- Posts: 7351
- Age: 45
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
- Location: central florida
Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
One thing I'm noting right now is the absence of the Azores high, what would be the implications if this continues into the hurricanes season as an average
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
0 likes
- Hurricaneman
- Category 5
- Posts: 7351
- Age: 45
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
- Location: central florida
Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
Ntxw wrote:1973 is definitely a head scratcher. La Nina's are usually generous in Atlantic especially the bigger ones, and 1973 was the mother of all Nina's (-1.9C holds the record). I don't even think shear was that prevalent then, was it?
Might have been the super -AMO at work there
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
0 likes
- Andrew92
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 3247
- Age: 41
- Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 12:35 am
- Location: Phoenix, Arizona
Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
Without digging in and researching, my best theory about 1973 would be, did something cause greater than normal instability that year in the Atlantic? I believe there were an above-average number of disturbances, so a cold IOD, if I am correct, doesn't seem like the answer.
Don't know what shear was like though. I do know this, years after an El Nino, even solid La Nina years, can sometimes be somewhat disappointing in overall activity. Still, they usually have at least one "blockbuster" hurricane, or something close to that. Examples that come to mind are 1978 and 2007. Those years were underwhelming in terms of hurricanes (like 1973), but 1978 featured near-disaster Greta and 2007 had C5's Dean and Felix. 1973 had no such storm in the Atlantic. At all.
Or is 1973 just some strange anomaly?
-Andrew92
Don't know what shear was like though. I do know this, years after an El Nino, even solid La Nina years, can sometimes be somewhat disappointing in overall activity. Still, they usually have at least one "blockbuster" hurricane, or something close to that. Examples that come to mind are 1978 and 2007. Those years were underwhelming in terms of hurricanes (like 1973), but 1978 featured near-disaster Greta and 2007 had C5's Dean and Felix. 1973 had no such storm in the Atlantic. At all.
Or is 1973 just some strange anomaly?
-Andrew92
0 likes
- gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23691
- Age: 47
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
Regarding the inactive 1973 year following the 1972 El Nino year, it's interesting to note that 1972 had a similar track map to that of El Nino years 1991 and 2015. Namely pretty good amount of activity that tried to get going in the far eastern Atlantic and some activity in the subtropical Atlantic. Maybe 2016 could be something like 1973 or 1992. Track maps below:






0 likes
Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
Andrew92 wrote:Without digging in and researching, my best theory about 1973 would be, did something cause greater than normal instability that year in the Atlantic? I believe there were an above-average number of disturbances, so a cold IOD, if I am correct, doesn't seem like the answer.
Don't know what shear was like though. I do know this, years after an El Nino, even solid La Nina years, can sometimes be somewhat disappointing in overall activity. Still, they usually have at least one "blockbuster" hurricane, or something close to that. Examples that come to mind are 1978 and 2007. Those years were underwhelming in terms of hurricanes (like 1973), but 1978 featured near-disaster Greta and 2007 had C5's Dean and Felix. 1973 had no such storm in the Atlantic. At all.
Or is 1973 just some strange anomaly?
-Andrew92
It may be anomaly. It's very tough to find a Nina that is a total dud like 1973. Like you said they mostly featured something, especially when you look at the other powerful Nina's as 1973. In fact 1983 and 1970 is the only other dud NIna however, the ERSSTv4 downgraded 1983 into neutral. There are dud neutrals. Even during the -AMO of the 80s the big 1988 NIna gave us Gilbert. Maybe the early 70s was just subdued period for the Atlantic?
0 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- Andrew92
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 3247
- Age: 41
- Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 12:35 am
- Location: Phoenix, Arizona
Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
That doesn't surprise me about 1983. That always looked like a "Modoki La Nina," to borrow another one of our favorite terms. Cool in the central part of the Pacific at the Equator, but warm further east is what I recall seeing. Not exactly a favorable setup in the Atlantic.
I don't know as much about 1970, though that year came after a Modoki El Nino, unlike 1973. Still, even those years are usually more active than that year was (though the only examples I know of like 1970 are 1964, 1980, 2005, and maybe 1992 though that year had a very warm EPAC in the MDR, much unlike the others). The only other thing I know is that 1970 began a quiet period in the Atlantic that lasted until 1995. That said, 1970 did feature destructive Celia.
Maybe 1984 is the closest match to 1973. I am maybe stretching a bit, but I am treating 1983 as a pseudo-Nino due to the warm EPAC MDR and warm eastern anomalies. But otherwise, 1984 is the second year after a traditional El Nino event, which almost always features a long-tracking, destructive hurricane hitting the US from tropical origins. 1984 only had Diana (which only grazed as a major before making landfall as a somewhat weaker hurricane), which came from non-tropical origins and was homegrown. There just wasn't much else that year other than lots of quantity but very little quality, though it is something bigger than anything in 1973. (As an aside, 1985 was much closer to all other second-years-after an El Nino than 1984, with both Elena and Gloria.) Very little activity in the MDR, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico.
Does that mean anything for 2016? Not sure, but time will tell.
-Andrew92
I don't know as much about 1970, though that year came after a Modoki El Nino, unlike 1973. Still, even those years are usually more active than that year was (though the only examples I know of like 1970 are 1964, 1980, 2005, and maybe 1992 though that year had a very warm EPAC in the MDR, much unlike the others). The only other thing I know is that 1970 began a quiet period in the Atlantic that lasted until 1995. That said, 1970 did feature destructive Celia.
Maybe 1984 is the closest match to 1973. I am maybe stretching a bit, but I am treating 1983 as a pseudo-Nino due to the warm EPAC MDR and warm eastern anomalies. But otherwise, 1984 is the second year after a traditional El Nino event, which almost always features a long-tracking, destructive hurricane hitting the US from tropical origins. 1984 only had Diana (which only grazed as a major before making landfall as a somewhat weaker hurricane), which came from non-tropical origins and was homegrown. There just wasn't much else that year other than lots of quantity but very little quality, though it is something bigger than anything in 1973. (As an aside, 1985 was much closer to all other second-years-after an El Nino than 1984, with both Elena and Gloria.) Very little activity in the MDR, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico.
Does that mean anything for 2016? Not sure, but time will tell.
-Andrew92
Last edited by Andrew92 on Thu Apr 14, 2016 11:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
-
- Category 1
- Posts: 309
- Joined: Wed Oct 24, 2012 12:57 pm
Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
2003 would be an awesome year to 'repeat.' Claudette, Isabel, and Juan were all very interesting hurricanes imo. Claudette was basically Celia's little sister. Started rapid intensification just before landfall, had abnormally high gusts (I remember people speculating that it was actually a cat 2 because it was such a legit cat 1, with the 74+ mph winds making it down to the surface, which we now know is common in storms that make landfall during RI), and maintained intensity for a very long time after hitting land.
Isabel was, well... Isabel. And Juan was the most interesting, imo. It sort of gave us an idea of how things went with the 1938 hurricane -- racing over the cold NE waters, weakening rapidly (you could barely even tell it was a hurricane on IR), but moving so fast that the winds were much stronger than anticipated.
Isabel was, well... Isabel. And Juan was the most interesting, imo. It sort of gave us an idea of how things went with the 1938 hurricane -- racing over the cold NE waters, weakening rapidly (you could barely even tell it was a hurricane on IR), but moving so fast that the winds were much stronger than anticipated.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
Ntxw wrote:Andrew92 wrote:Without digging in and researching, my best theory about 1973 would be, did something cause greater than normal instability that year in the Atlantic? I believe there were an above-average number of disturbances, so a cold IOD, if I am correct, doesn't seem like the answer.
Don't know what shear was like though. I do know this, years after an El Nino, even solid La Nina years, can sometimes be somewhat disappointing in overall activity. Still, they usually have at least one "blockbuster" hurricane, or something close to that. Examples that come to mind are 1978 and 2007. Those years were underwhelming in terms of hurricanes (like 1973), but 1978 featured near-disaster Greta and 2007 had C5's Dean and Felix. 1973 had no such storm in the Atlantic. At all.
Or is 1973 just some strange anomaly?
-Andrew92
It may be anomaly. It's very tough to find a Nina that is a total dud like 1973. Like you said they mostly featured something, especially when you look at the other powerful Nina's as 1973. In fact 1983 and 1970 is the only other dud NIna however, the ERSSTv4 downgraded 1983 into neutral. There are dud neutrals. Even during the -AMO of the 80s the big 1988 NIna gave us Gilbert. Maybe the early 70s was just subdued period for the Atlantic?
Though 1983 may have been a neutral year don't forget that Nino 1+2 was between +3 deg C & +5 deg C during the months of June through August along with a -AMO over the Atlantic.
0 likes
-
- Admin
- Posts: 20010
- Age: 62
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
Instability (we've debated if this is leading, lagging, or neither) is coming up.


0 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
Not looking good for the Atlantic according to the latest Euro MSLP Outlook.
Levi Cowan
@TropicalTidbits
Well, last month's ECMWF forecast was ambiguous. This month's is not. Looks like 2015's forecast.
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145355
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
As Alyono said,Hawaii may be a hot spot in 2016.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
If the Euro is any indicator that N. Atlantic should migrate south towards the W. Coast of Africa by summer.
Levi Cowan
@TropicalTidbits
Atlantic remains coldest tropical basin in summer relative to normal. If that verifies, easy hurricane forecast.
0 likes
Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
Levi Cowan
@TropicalTidbits
Compare ECMWF to the CFS and you get different stories. Mainly because MDR is warmer in the CFS and EPAC is cooler.
0 likes
Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
It just keeps looking worse for the Atlantic if you go by the Euro.
Lack of MDR disturbances I would assume would mean a quiet Western Atlantic/GoM.

Philip Klotzbach
@philklotzbach
Latest ECMWF rainfall forecasts for Aug thru Oct calling for suppressed precipitation across the trop Atlantic.
Lack of MDR disturbances I would assume would mean a quiet Western Atlantic/GoM.
Michael Ventrice
@MJVentrice
@philklotzbach Going to be the western MDR/GOM show with a stronger than average Gulf of Guinea cold tongue
0 likes
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22979
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
I've been looking at the April ECMWF forecast for August-October and there are significant differences between this year and last. Last April, the EC indicated very DRY conditions from the western Caribbean to Africa. The MSLP anomaly in the western Caribbean & Gulf is not as high as last season. El Niño will be gone, so Caribbean shear should be a lot lower.
Although the MDR may remain rather hostile as far as development, the disturbances/waves should survive and track westward through the Caribbean this season - something that was absent in 2015. This means there may be a good chance of development in the western Caribbean & Gulf this season.
Although the MDR may remain rather hostile as far as development, the disturbances/waves should survive and track westward through the Caribbean this season - something that was absent in 2015. This means there may be a good chance of development in the western Caribbean & Gulf this season.
0 likes
Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal
wxman57 wrote:I've been looking at the April ECMWF forecast for August-October and there are significant differences between this year and last. Last April, the EC indicated very DRY conditions from the western Caribbean to Africa. The MSLP anomaly in the western Caribbean & Gulf is not as high as last season. El Niño will be gone, so Caribbean shear should be a lot lower.
Although the MDR may remain rather hostile as far as development, the disturbances/waves should survive and track westward through the Caribbean this season - something that was absent in 2015. This means there may be a good chance of development in the western Caribbean & Gulf this season.
Not to mention even with how hostile the MDR(Tropical Atlantic) was last season we were able to squeeze out two hurricanes including one short-lived major(the first in that sub-region in years). So IMO I think we may be able to see a few storms at least form in the MDR, survival after that will be key and MAY NOT be as challenging as last season if the Caribbean is more favorable than the last few seasons.
0 likes
Re: 2016 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

July/August/September

August/September/October

0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Google Adsense [Bot] and 67 guests