Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[SFLcane]

Maybe we'll skip the season entirely based on the Euro. This basin is so fragile and for TC fans its been a big disappointment. I for one will jump on active cycle being over after this season.

[Alyono]

I would not be the least bit surprised if more than 1 hurricane made a direct hit on Hawaii this year

[PTrackerLA]

Wow, how well do these Euro seasonal forecasts typically perform? I don't see any other way to interpret that Euro MSLP forecast for the Atlantic than another dud of a season is on the way. If that verifies count me in the active Era has ended camp as well.

[NDG]

Not looking good for the Atlantic according to the latest Euro MSLP Outlook.

Levi Cowan
‏@TropicalTidbits
Well, last month's ECMWF forecast was ambiguous. This month's is not. Looks like 2015's forecast.

But for last year the Euro forecasted even lower pressures for the Hawaii area, I don't agree that it will be a busier year for Hawaii than last year.

[Kingarabian]

I would not be the least bit surprised if more than 1 hurricane made a direct hit on Hawaii this year

That's pretty bold lol. Considering how these storm miss Hawaii no matter what.

[Alyono]

There is a big difference for Hawaii this year compared to last year. Last year, the low pressure was over the entire basin. This year, it is concentrated over Hawaii.

[tatertawt24]

So, we've started leaning towards another inactive season? Ugh.

[Alyono]

So, we've started leaning towards another inactive season? Ugh.

This has been stated since last October

[CaliforniaResident]

Does anyone think the PDO will go negative late this summer as we switch into a La Nina?

[stormwise]

Little early to assume not convinced here the thermodynamics will support a active season in the c-pac.

[Kingarabian]

In the years a hurricane has hit Hawaii (1959, 1982, 1992) the PDO was positive. No doubt that the PDO plays a role in CPAC activity.

[Ntxw]

I think the bigger question this year is not so much how other basins or conditions elsewhere deter the Atlantic as much, but rather the conditions in the Atlantic itself. Is it just a natural background state that has subdued activity (high pressures) relatively speaking? Or will that not be the case. It's not the same conditions as if a raging El Nino was blasting shear into the Caribbean. We will know this season if the Atlantic has entered the inactive era or if it was a just a blip. La Nina (in general) favor the Atlantic

IF this season does not reach normal ACE, around 90 or so, then we would have had 4 years of less than stellar season two being neutral, one being El Nino, and this coming one La Nina. That would definitely signify regime change.

[WPBWeather]

So, we've started leaning towards another inactive season? Ugh.

This has been stated since last October

I hope you are correct. But its only hope (not hard evidence) we have at the moment.

[xcool22]

what is Euro basin this off MSLP or El Niño ?

[Hammy]

IF this season does not reach normal ACE, around 90 or so, then we would have had 4 years of less than stellar season two being neutral, one being El Nino, and this coming one La Nina. That would definitely signify regime change.

I would personally wait until 2017 (five straight years) in order to make this assumption, especially with the likelihood of lingering warmer waters north of the Equator left over from El Nino similarly to 1983. Not only that but 2014 had the beginnings of El Nino conditions and still managed the low end of the "near normal" ACE range (66-110), and 2015 still had 11 storms despite being one of the strongest El Ninos on record. And it's been pointed out by more than a few posters here that this active season was notable for not having any extended inactive periods up to this point, which itself is also unusual.

[TheStormExpert]

Personally I think 2017 will be a big year if you love to track quality storms/hurricanes.

But first lets worry about 2016 which in my opinion could go either way but will likely not be too active when compared to seasons like 2004, 2005, 2010 etc. A season like 1992(minus Andrew) could happen or we could end up near normal overall like in 2003, or 2007.

[Ntxw]

IF this season does not reach normal ACE, around 90 or so, then we would have had 4 years of less than stellar season two being neutral, one being El Nino, and this coming one La Nina. That would definitely signify regime change.

I would personally wait until 2017 (five straight years) in order to make this assumption, especially with the likelihood of lingering warmer waters north of the Equator left over from El Nino similarly to 1983. Not only that but 2014 had the beginnings of El Nino conditions and still managed the low end of the "near normal" ACE range (66-110), and 2015 still had 11 storms despite being one of the strongest El Ninos on record. And it's been pointed out by more than a few posters here that this active season was notable for not having any extended inactive periods up to this point, which itself is also unusual.

The only problem I see with 2014 and 2015 is that both seasons nearly half of the seasonal ACE was racked up by one system each, Gonzalo and Joaquin. Truly active seasons are often spread amongst several hurricanes and majors.

[Hurricaneman]

I wouldn't rule out this season being active as the Enso 1\2 has dropped substantially and even the eastern part of the EPAC MDR SSTAs seem to be dropping a little bit so those calling for an inactive year may be right but that isn't my bet right now as those things need to be watched.

While east of 35W is cooler than normal which may kill activity east of there but most areas west of there including the GOM, Caribbean, and the Subtropical Atlantic are warmer than normal

Another thing to watch for is if the Azores and Bermuda high rebuild, if they rebuild less than expected then the higher end expectations may indeed be right but if the opposite happens then it may be a subdued season like some of the meteorologists on this forum and even Phil Klotzbach have been mentioning

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[CFLHurricane]

^^^^ This guy knows what's up ^^^^

[ninel conde]

I think this is the season the non-major streak is broken.