Texas Spring 2016

[Brent]

I actually think there's a better chance that there'll be too many storms in a messy storm mode than there being a cap bust tomorrow.

I actually tend to agree with this... what I see in the hi-res models so far is quickly the mode becomes messy around here. I'm not so sure we'll see 1 or 2 storms dominating in the metro like April 11th.

[EF-5bigj]

I'm hoping the storm mode isn't individual like it could be in OK/KS.

[PDinKS]

Sooo.... in light of the fact there has not been a new general thread started for tomorrows weather, and I'm not in Texas; does anyone want to share their thoughts on tomorrow? Particularly S.E. Kansas... I've hail-proofed as much as possible, and have been encouraging friends and family to keep an eye on the weather and stay close to home. I noticed that NWS shifted the dryline slightly to the west on the latest outlook, and wondering if that is just based on current runs?

[TheAustinMan]

Impressive storm cell moving into San Antonio this evening and dumping sizeable hail. Reports of up to 2.5" hail in some of the southern and southwestern suburbs as the storm tracks northward.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

If the low level shear isnt there thats good new. Youre right Ntx, that is very important as well for supporting tornadoes, but yes, the high CAPE can be massive hail. Just hoping for a long messy line of storms. Still learning lots about the severe weathere side! Been studying the Skew T the last couple days to plug holes in my knowledge

[Texas Snowman]

Meanwhile, north of the Red River...

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@KOCOdamonlane -- Oklahoma: Pretty sure you'll see me on TV tomorrow without my suit jacket on. #serious

[TheProfessor]

Biggest Tornado threat in Texas and Oklahoma might come around 3z when better low level winds arrive. Of course by that time messy storm mode could occur and spare people, but if the Cells don't come together it could get pretty bad between 7-10 central.

[1900hurricane]

Found some capping.

[South Texas Storms]

Another hail storm hit San Antonio earlier this evening. My dad said he got golf ball sized hail and sent me pictures confirming it. 2nd big hail storm in SA this month.

[Texas Snowman]

From Steve McCauley (he promises more on Facebook in a bit):

"A weakness developed in the cap this afternoon over south Texas and allowed a couple of supercell thunderstorms with baseball-sized hail to rapidly fire south of San Antonio. This is evidence that our cap here in north Texas will likely break late tomorrow afternoon leading to explosive development of severe thunderstorms. The first to fire will be in the western portions of north Texas and then moving NE into the Metroplex during evening hours."

[Texas Snowman]

In OKC...
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@MikeMorganKFOR -- New Data coming in...Models ADJUSTING to more potent outbreak for tomorrow. This was expected. Know YOUR safety plan

[Texas Snowman]

@reedtimmer -- New model guidance trending south w/ sfc low track. #Tornado threat increases by 00z in S KS/OK. 4 km NAM STP 00z:

[HockeyTx82]

English?

[Jarodm12]

the proverbial crap is about to hit the fan~~!

[EF-5bigj]

Well that was not what I wanted to hear about the models everyone stay safe Tuesday.

[HockeyTx82]

He seems to think Oklahoma and Kansas, what about N Texas?

[Ntxw]

I'm not too sold on a major tornado outbreak in N Texas. May have some touchdowns (EF0-EF2) peak maybe. The bigger story will be hail. Some nasty hailstorms for somebody. SPC will probably put some strong wording on that.

[TexasF6]

NAM00Z PAINTS DFW IN THE PDS TOR....

[Jarodm12]

What does that mean.. NAM PDS TOR?

[Jarodm12]

double