Texas Spring 2016

[Yukon Cornelius]

Updated graphic

[dhweather]

What does that mean.. NAM PDS TOR?

I didn't know what it means either. I hope a MET can chime in and give us a 'civilian' explanation. In the meantime I found this...............

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/publications/dean/pdswatch.pdf


I'm getting scared for tonight. What's a good thing to put on a car windshield to protect it while parked?

A PDS TOR means there is a confirmed tornado and it typically gets a PDS warning if Damage has been seen in an Urban area. PDS stands for Particularly Dangerous Situation. The Saving Grace for the Metro tonight might be that the storms form out into a line. However if the Storms stay as individual cells or if individual cells form ahead of the line it could get really bad. The best Tornado parameters arrive after 7PM Central, hopefully the storms have already formed a line by then.

A PDS Watch only means there is an enhanced risk for multiple tornadoes, particularly strong, long track tornadoes.

A PDS Warning (aka Tornado Emergency) is a warning type that is usually issued for a confirmed tornado threatening a metropolitan area.


As for covering your windshield, there is not much you can do. Winds will blow off most covers, large hail will damage most anything.

[Jarodm12]

The moderate risk expansion south is due to increased confidence in wind and very large hail by the SPC. Tor hatched area looks to remain the same. A culprit might be a bow echo type system tonight at least for wind.

The 10% hatched tornado risk was extended this morning prior to the MDT being extended.. All perameters appear to be similar all the way through Kansas, you seem skeptical of an outbreak, though I'm not sure why, as NWS continues to trend more and more seriously.

[Ntxw]

The moderate risk expansion south is due to increased confidence in wind and very large hail by the SPC. Tor hatched area looks to remain the same. A culprit might be a bow echo type system tonight at least for wind.

The 10% hatched tornado risk was extended this morning prior to the MDT being extended.. All perameters appear to be similar all the way through Kansas, you seem skeptical of an outbreak, though I'm not sure why, as NWS continues to trend more and more seriously.

Yes thus the moderate was for the expansion and addition to wind and hail (45%) not because of TOR. I'm not skeptical of an outbreak, I am trying to be realistic from the data. There is a difference between a bonafide high risk day. You have to also contain some of the severe weather hype that goes one quite a bit lately.

None of the severe weather modes are fun to be in if you're hit regardless. The biggest concern this evening will be hail and if a bow line forms, very strong winds. Isolated tornadoes are not out the picture but they are not the biggest threat.

[Ellsey]

Truthfully though, I don't know of anyone calling for a tornado outbreak in North Texas at least. Almost everyone I've seen is concerned about large hail and high winds. Either way we need to be prepared for bad weather and keep alert.

[gboudx]

Depending on how much trouble you want to go thru to protect the windshield, there's a few things you can try. Thick blankets, tied tightly and securely would help. Those egg crate mattress covers, again tied tightly and securely.

But to be the envy of the neighborhood, there's this airbag looking thing: https://www.hailprotector.com/

[Lagreeneyes03]

Depending on how much trouble you want to go thru to protect the windshield, there's a few things you can try. Thick blankets, tied tightly and securely would help. Those egg crate mattress covers, again tied tightly and securely.

But to be the envy of the neighborhood, there's this airbag looking thing: https://www.hailprotector.com/

If you're really intent in protecting, get to a parking garage. Northpark, Northeast Mall, Stonebriar, Nebraska Furniture Mart, several hospitals and large office complexes have them.

[EF-5bigj]

So are we giving this event its own thread?

[Ntxw]

So are we giving this event its own thread?

You can start one if you'd like, or I can start one. Most posters here tend to post in the Texas thread for more local weather. But if Kansas and Oklahoma does experience significant tornadoes it would be warranted in discussion there.

[Shoshana]

I'm getting scared for tonight. What's a good thing to put on a car windshield to protect it while parked?

What I have tried:
Garage (obviously)

Multi level parking garage (like at the mall or something) - works well for daytime storms, but they don't tend to let people park overnight. You might be able to ask if you have one nearby, or maybe do paid parking, like at a hospital It does involve getting a ride home and leaving your car out in public.

Apartment covered parking, kinda hit or miss. Depending on the severity of the storm it can help. Wind can blow hail. Or in a big storm it can collapse!

Figure out which way the winds will be blowing from and park up against a building to block as much as possible. Better than nothing unless you have the wind bounce the hail off the building onto your car.

Good luck!

[EF-5bigj]

You can start it if you want

[dhweather]

FWD did a special sounding to check on the cap. Look at the screen, you can't miss it!

https://twitter.com/soonertom/status/725020037241675776

[cheezyWXguy]

The moderate risk expansion south is due to increased confidence in wind and very large hail by the SPC. Tor hatched area looks to remain the same. A culprit might be a bow echo type system tonight at least for wind.

The 10% hatched tornado risk was extended this morning prior to the MDT being extended.. All perameters appear to be similar all the way through Kansas, you seem skeptical of an outbreak, though I'm not sure why, as NWS continues to trend more and more seriously.

Yes thus the moderate was for the expansion and addition to wind and hail (45%) not because of TOR. I'm not skeptical of an outbreak, I am trying to be realistic from the data. There is a difference between a bonafide high risk day. You have to also contain some of the severe weather hype that goes one quite a bit lately.

None of the severe weather modes are fun to be in if you're hit regardless. The biggest concern this evening will be hail and if a bow line forms, very strong winds. Isolated tornadoes are not out the picture but they are not the biggest threat.

I dont think anyone is suggesting a full-fledged tornado outbreak in North Texas, otherwise there'd probably be people asking about high risks, increasing tornado %s, etc. What piques my interest though, is that for the past several days Oklahoma and Kansas have been labelled as the areas to watch for tornadoes, and strong ones, should any occur. However, with the last two successive outlooks, NTX has been included in these risks, and now holds just as good of a chance of experiencing tornadoes and large hail as OK and KS. Given this, along with what I am able to interpret from model data, it doesn't seem anywhere today will experience a full-on tornado outbreak, but anywhere in the MDT risk right now has a fair chance for some tornadoes and the potential for 1 or 2 stronger ones. But that's just my interpretation.

[dhweather]

I think some of that is due to the actual strength and track of the shortwave, versus model forecasts.

[Ntxw]

FWD did a special sounding to check on the cap. Look at the screen, you can't miss it!

Yeah cap is pretty stout still as of 18z FWD special sounding. Look out west from about Big Spring up to Childress for storm initiation. Very high cape out there.

[lukem]

Isn't the cap being strong a bad thing today? I thought since this system was negative tilt it could bust through the cap more easily and a weaker cap might result in less explosive storms. I could be wrong on this.

[weatherdude1108]

Depending on how much trouble you want to go thru to protect the windshield, there's a few things you can try. Thick blankets, tied tightly and securely would help. Those egg crate mattress covers, again tied tightly and securely.

But to be the envy of the neighborhood, there's this airbag looking thing: https://www.hailprotector.com/

I've seen that. That looks cool. That looks like a good investment.

[TarrantWx]

Isn't the cap being strong a bad thing today? I thought since this system was negative tilt it could bust through the cap more easily and a weaker cap might result in less explosive storms. I could be wrong on this.

Cap being strong will allow for more instability to build up before the upper level forcing arrives. A cap bust is unlikely today.

[Ntxw]

Isn't the cap being strong a bad thing today? I thought since this system was negative tilt it could bust through the cap more easily and a weaker cap might result in less explosive storms. I could be wrong on this.

Cap being strong will allow for more instability to build up before the upper level forcing arrives. A cap bust is unlikely today.

Yeah there will be more than enough lift with the disturbance to break the cap this evening (MCS). Any early storms that can isolate itself (super-cell) will have the most unstable environment to work with before congealing MCS arrives.

[Tireman4]

From the holler down here in Houston....AFD...interesting...A&M is running a balloon up ....

000
FXUS64 KHGX 261828 CCA
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
119 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIG CONDITIONS ARE FINALLY IMPROVING TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON
AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. MOST
TERMINALS WILL BE SCT035-045 AFTER 20Z WITH SOUTH WINDS AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS.

A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD
LIMIT OUR CHANCES FOR ANY LOCAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...SEVERAL
RELIABLE SHORT-TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS
COULD BE HIT BY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
BETWEEN 09 AND 12Z TOMORROW MORNING. AT THIS TIME...I HAVE
MAINTAINED THE STATUS-QUO AND ONLY MENTIONED SHOWERS IN THE TAFS
BECAUSE OF THE ANTICIPATED LOW LEVEL INVERSION.

THE METEOROLOGY DEPARTMENT AT TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY WILL BE DOING A
SPECIAL BALLOON RELEASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO HELP DETERMINE
WHICH MODELS HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CAP AND WHEN IT SHOULD
ERODE. THE EVENING SHIFT MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS IF THE CAP PROVES TO BE WEAKER THAN
ANTICIPATED. 44

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

THE STATE FALLING DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED
OVER THE LOWER GREAT BASIN. LEEWARD ROCKY MOUNTAIN PRESSURES
FALLING WITH THE 995 MB SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER SW
KANSAS...DRY LINE EMANATING FROM THE TROUGH INTO THE PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHWARD INTO THE BIG BEND REGION. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS PLACING THE MAJORITY OF THE STATE
UNDER A WARM AIR ADVECTION FLOW PATTERN. A TIGHT ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BACK TO THE 1016 MB FLORIDA-CENTRIC HIGH IS PRODUCING A
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND THAT HAS AIDED IN MAINTAINING AREAWIDE LOW
70 DEW POINTS. SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND ROCKY
MOUNTAIN LOW HAS PRODUCED AN ENTRENCHED SOUTHWEST WIND. THIS MID-
LEVEL STEERING FLOW HAS PULLED IN A WARM AIR MASS ALOFT...NOTED BY
THE 8-9H LAYER CAPPING INVERSION IN BOTH LAST NIGHT`S CRP AND SHV
SOUNDINGS. THE EASTERN MOVEMENT OF THE GREAT BASIN 5H LOW INTO THE
(CENTRAL) WESTERN PLAINS WILL DRAW THE DRY LINE INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
TOMORROW MORNING. A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE LINE WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE THIS EVENING AND THIS LINE WILL
PROPAGATE EAST INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY MORNING HOURS. THE MODEL SUITE GENERALLY TRACKS THIS
TSRA LINE INTO THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA BETWEEN 06 AND
12Z...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE DOWNSTREAM CAP WILL ULTIMATELY
BECOME THE DECIDER. THE TARGET COUNTIES FOR EITHER STRONG OR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MADISON ..HOUSTON AND TRINITY AS THE CAP
WILL LIKELY WEAKEN THE MOST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. THE WRF-ARW
DOES HOLD A QLCS TOGETHER... POSSIBLY BOWING OUT EAST OF WACO/I-35
CORRIDOR AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE LIES WITH A
WEAKENING LINE THAT WILL TRAVEL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM AS
EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...THE BULK
OF THE 1 TO 2 INCHES (LOCALLY 3 TO 4 INCHES) OF RAIN FALLING
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HIGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EQUATING TO HIGH CAPE VALUES WITH HIGH LOW LEVEL BULK SHEAR
VALUES...ALONG WITH LOWER WBZ HEIGHTS...SUGGEST THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE WIND AND HAIL. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE STORMS WILL
MUTE THE HIGH RAINFALL THREAT. THERE IS DECENT LOWER LEVEL VEERING
(35-45 LLJ) OF WIND THAT DOES PRODUCE A HIGHER SIGNAL FOR
TORNADOES.

THURSDAY`S VACATING UPPER LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
QUICKLY BE FILLED BY THE NEXT IN-A-LINE OF UPPER LOWS. THIS LOW
IS CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA AND WILL DIG
DOWN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. THIS LOW IS CURRENTLY BEING MODELED TO TAKE A SIMILAR PATH
AS TOMORROW`S LOW...MAYBE A TOUCH MORE EAST THAN NORTH. THIS WILL
CREATE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DIFFULENCE OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION
(THAN TOMORROWW`S SYSTEM)...AND THIS COULD BE THE MARKER THAT
MAKES SATURDAY`S SYSTEM A POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM. BUT IN NOT
PUTTING THE CART BEFORE THE HORSE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
ON THE RISE FRIDAY WITH A TIGHTENED ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT
PRODUCING A ROBUST 15-20 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND. HIGHER POCKETS
OF PVA AHEAD OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LOW SUGGEST THAT FRIDAY COULD
BE PLAGUED WITH PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE ONE
INHIBITOR WOULD AGAIN BE THE STRENGTH OF THE MID-LEVEL WARM NOSE.
THE FORECAST CALLS FOR ANOTHER QLCS PASSAGE SATURDAY WITH PROFILES
DEPICTING WIND AND HIGH RAINFALL RATES AS POTENTIALLY HIGHER THREATS.

UNTIL A COLD FRONT SLATED FOR THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME COMES
THROUGH...PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL ENSURE THIS MUGGY AND WARM
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH. MORNING MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH DAYTIME
READINGS WARMING INTO THE AVERAGE MIDDLE 80S ON DAYS WHERE IS DOESN`T
RAIN...LOWER 80S ON THOSE DAYS IT RAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 69 84 67 86 70 / 60 30 10 20 40
HOUSTON (IAH) 72 85 71 86 73 / 50 50 10 20 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 73 79 74 82 73 / 20 50 20 20 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...44