Texas Spring 2016

[Tireman4]

Porta..not sure..he is not been on Facebook lately either....Wxman 57....he has not posted on KHOU Forum in awhile.

[TarrantWx]

There's an area of agitated CU between Abilene and Brownwood that needs to be watched. Once the forcing arrives it's pretty likely that storms will go in that area. I'm pretty impressed with the storms developing behind the dry line. That just goes to show the amount of upper level forcing this system has.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

On Twitter, @Portastorm has a handfull of retweets today, but nothing original.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Line in OK just east of the panhandle of TX is forming, still super high CAPE in that region, should fill in soon i believe.

So far the kansas storms look messy and seem to be getting in each others way which is excellent.

[TarrantWx]

Looks like the area of agitated CU is now starting to develop into storms. Watch the area between Breckenridge, Eastland, and Brownwood. You can see some very vigorous updrafts on the visible satellite image.

[Ntxw]

Mode is going to be linear when it gets to the I-35 corridor. Will be quite an MCS. I would definitely look out for some bow echo high winds this evening. The cap is probably going to hold until that line nears with the extra lift.

[Brent]

I'm expecting a line for the metroplex... not really sure why there's a PDS watch.

[Texas Snowman]

Looking more and more like Ntwx was right - not much of a tornado threat has materialized so far, PDS watch or not.

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@NWSNorman -- 6pm update pt2 - So far low level wind shear - one of the main ingredients for tornadoes - has been lacking.

[Texas Snowman]

@NWSNorman -- 6pm update pt3 - This is the time of evening when low level wind shear typically increases. We'll be watching trends to see if this happens

@NWSNorman -- 6pm update pt4 - computer models suggest we might see low level wind shear increase so everyone should remain alert next few hours.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Storms are definitely starting to pop ahead of the main line. Those are the ones to watch, no?

[Ntxw]

Storms are definitely starting to pop ahead of the main line. Those are the ones to watch, no?

They're elevated mostly they haven't been able to break down to the surface. Up and down from Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas it's going linear quickly. I think the threat of singular super-cells is not as great as thought to be. Would've liked for some weaknesses in the cap for that to happen but it held most of today. With increasing LLJ, tornado threat would be confined to spinups in the line.

[Texas Snowman]

@ounwcm -- 630pm - low level wind shear increasing central OK. Could lead to increased tornado potential next few hours. Stay alert!!

[Annie Oakley]

Hey thanks everyone for the hail damage-prevention advice and tips! Y'all please stay safe tonight.

[cheezyWXguy]

Looks like the HRRR was right in developing this thing into a line so quickly. Looks like potent one though, SPC mentions the possibility of gusts in excess of 65kt. If low level shear does increase as NWS Norman is suggesting, isolated spinups in stronger parts of the line could be possible though.

[Brent]

Storms are definitely starting to pop ahead of the main line. Those are the ones to watch, no?

HRRR quickly kills those storms off when the line overtakes them.

[Ntxw]

Looks like the HRRR was right in developing this thing into a line so quickly. Looks like potent one though, SPC mentions the possibility of gusts in excess of 65kt. If low level shear does increase as NWS Norman is suggesting, isolated spinups in stronger parts of the line could be possible though.

Yeah it will be a noisy evening, and light show for the metroplex after 9pm. HRRR performed well. SPC hatched the 45% wind this morning warranted with the bow echo line.

There is a day 3 risk for Friday with the next system.

[jasons2k]

Good news -- the line in Texas has gone linear, so the threat for tornadoes has decreased, at least for the Metroplex.

Side note - interesting the see the NWS FWD tweeting pics of GrLevel3!

[Yukon Cornelius]

At least in my area, it appears all that will materialize is a typical spring severe t-storm.

[Ntxw]

At least in my area, it appears all that will materialize is a typical spring severe t-storm.

SPC so far has done a good job with this episode. Except for the PDS watch. I'm not sure having a 10% tornado odd warrants such a watch by their logic. That's just your typical spring odds outbreak. Though there was uncertainty so I guess they sided with caution which is always advisable. Still though I've seen them not issue PDS watches with TOR odds greater than they had today.

[Brent]

At least in my area, it appears all that will materialize is a typical spring severe t-storm.

SPC so far has done a good job with this episode. Except for the PDS watch. I'm not sure having a 10% tornado odd warrants such a watch by their logic. That's just your typical spring odds outbreak. Though there was uncertainty so I guess they sided with caution which is always advisable. Still though I've seen them not issue PDS watches with TOR odds greater than they had today.

The PDS watch definitely surprised me more because of the 10% tornado... I'm still not sure exactly what the reasoning was behind it.

I haven't been overly hyped up about this setup being some historic outbreak in a few days now either.