Caribbean - Central America Weather

[msbee]

we had maybe an inch or so of rain over night but that has been all. we just have mostly overcast skies, high high humidity, and a drizzle here and there.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
151 PM AST TUE APR 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH A RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A MODERATE
TO STRONG JET WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF THE AREA BUT WILL WEAKEN AND
SHIFT NORTH TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDINESS WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED STREAMING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGAN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF
PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMBINATION OF
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AT LOW LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND A WEAK
TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AFFECTING THE LOCAL AREA THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IN
FACT...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 2.0 INCHES THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
THEREFORE...GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY..ESPECIALLY EVERY AFTERNOON OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF
PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS AND PERIODS OF SHRA WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TJBQ/TJSJ/TJPS UNTIL EARLY
THIS EVENING...AS SHRA DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS PUERTO RICO. AT
LEEWARD AND USVI TERMINALS...SHRA ARE EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS. LIGHT/VAR WIND FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 6K
FEET...BECOMING WESTERLY AND STRONGER ABOVE 6K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...LOCAL BUOY ARE SHOWING A DECREASE IN SWELL
ACTION...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...RINCON BUOY
CONTINUED SHOWING SWELLS OF 7 FEET. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SWELL
ACTION IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 84 75 86 / 40 30 30 30
STT 74 86 75 80 / 40 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
536 AM AST WED APR 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC NEXT 48 HOURS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WERE NOTED MAINLY OVER
THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS. LOCAL AREA REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCES OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS MOVING AWAY FROM
THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH IS MOVING AWAY...HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AT LOW LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN SECTION OF PUERTO RICO.

DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...LOCAL MODELS INDICATED A WET PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...AS DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTS TO THE NORTH AND MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCES
FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON. AFTER
SATURDAY...A DRIER AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL
REGION...RESULTING IN DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-BKN LAYERS W/OCCASIONAL OVC BTW FL030-FL150 WILL
CONTINUE TODAY INCREASING FM THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AS SHRA CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP OVER THE FLYING AREA...IMPACTING MAINLY THE USVI AND
LEEWARD TERMINALS THRU MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD...ISLD TSTMS
POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON +SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MTN
RANGES OF PR AND SOUTHERN AREAS. MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDS POSSIBLE AT
SOUTHERN PR TERMINALS. NE WINDS AT 10-15 KTS BLO FL050...WESTERLIES
AND INCREASING W/HEIGHT ABV. SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AFTER 13Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAS SUBSIDED BELOW 7 FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS WELL HIGH SURF ADVISORY WAS
CANCELLED. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE
CAUTION DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 75 82 74 / 30 30 30 50
STT 88 76 86 76 / 30 30 30 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
216 PM AST WED APR 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...POLAR TROUGH IS DOMINATING THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
MAINLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING
DEEPER MOISTURE DURING THE WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF
THE OLD BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AND SUBSIDENCE
AIR MASS JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO WHILE CLOUDY SKIES WITH SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY AND IT IS
ASSOCIATED SHEARLINE WILL KEEP THE LOCAL AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
THEN...THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING
THE WEEK...INDUCING A SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE ISLANDS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL PUSH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD BOUNDARY OVER THE ISLANDS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS
THE LOCAL REGION FROM SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MOST
ACTIVE PERIOD APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHEN HIGH
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY COMBINES WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS. DURING THIS PERIOD...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONCENTRATE ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND
THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE TONIGHT...ACROSS
THE LEEWARDS AND SOUTHERN USVI TAF SITES AS WELL AS ACROSS TJPS WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. ONLY VCSH EXPECTED ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE REST OF THE LOCAL FLYING AREA. LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING
INDICATED A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO 8K
FEET...BECOMING FROM THE WEST AND STRONGER ABOVE 8K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY SWELL OF 4-6 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 4-5 FEET THE REST OF
THE WEEK. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NE THROUGH THURSDAY...
VEERING TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 82 74 86 / 30 30 50 50
STT 76 86 76 85 / 30 30 50 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
535 AM AST THU APR 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATES THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE DURING THE
WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF THE OLD BOUNDARY.
THEREFORE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
OVERNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS WERE SEEN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL
WATERS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK RIDGING FROM THE HIGH MOVING ACROSS THE WEST
ATLANTIC ALONG WITH A SURFACE LOW WELL NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW AT LEAST
THROUGH TODAY. THEREAFTER WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST. CONSEQUENTLY...THE CHANGE IN WIND FLOW SHOULD BRING A
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS EXPECT SOME LOCALLY AND DIURNALLY
INDUCED CONVECTION EACH DAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS BUT DO
NOT EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. IN THE LONG TERM..NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR ACROSS PR TERMINALS EARLY IN THE FCST
PERIOD. HOWEVER...SCT/BKN CIGS BTW FL030-FL150 STILL EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE FLYING AREA. BRIEF MVFR AT TIMES TODAY AS SHRA
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...IMPACTING MAINLY
THE LEEWARD TERMINALS AND ISX. DIURNALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHRA
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR AND SW QUADRANT OF PR. NE LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 14Z
ACROSS THE NRN TERMINALS OF PR AND IST/ISX.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 74 85 75 / 30 50 50 40
STT 88 76 86 76 / 30 50 50 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
245 PM AST THU APR 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND THE ANEGADA PASSAGE IS PRODUCING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOP
MAINLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTHEAST
DURING THE WEEKEND...BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
REMNANTS OF THE OLD BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION. THEREFORE...THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGH FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON TO SATURDAY. THEN...MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL LIMIT THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN REGION TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS AT MID TO UPPER
LEVEL HAS PUSHED CLOUDS OVER THE AREA SINCE EARLY THIS WEEK. THIS
CLOUDS HAS BLOCKED SOMEWHAT THE SOLAR RADIATION...KEEPING THE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S. SOME SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...INDUCING A SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD BOUNDARY...RESULTING
IN MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY...WHEN HIGH CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY COMBINES WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS.
DURING THIS PERIOD...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
CONCENTRATE ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO.

THEN...DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...LIMITING THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BKN CIGS WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME. SHRA EXPECTED TO
INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS INDUCING
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS MOSTLY ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK.
DIURNALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON SHRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERIOR AND SW QUADRANT OF PR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. NE LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY SWELL OF 4-6 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 4-5 FEET THE REST OF
THE WEEK. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NE THROUGH TONIGHT...VEERING
TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 75 88 / 50 50 40 40
STT 76 86 76 85 / 50 50 50 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
544 AM AST FRI APR 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL
MOVE EASTWARD AS A SURFACE LOW TAKES ITS PLACE ON
SATURDAY...MOVING EAST AS WELL AND ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH WILL
ESTABLISH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
LOCAL WINDS TO SHIFT FROM E-NE TODAY TO E-SE ON SATURDAY THEN
SOUTH ON SUNDAY WHILE WEAKENING. THERE IS PLENTY OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE IN THE AREA TO CAUSE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED OVERNIGHT
WITH ONLY A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...LEAVING
TRACE AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER ST CROIX.

THIS IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS ENOUGH TO
START PRODUCING SHOWERS IN THE MORNING HOURS AS IT COMBINES WITH
THE DAYTIME HEATING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO START TURNING
SCATTERED ACROSS THE WATERS...EASTERN PR AND THE USVI IN THE
MORNING...THEN IN THE AFTERNOON THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST TOWARDS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF
PR...WHILE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA STAYS WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS. HAVING SAID THAT...SOME AREAS OF THE SAN JUAN
METRO AREA MAY EXPERIENCE SOME MODERATE SHOWERS AS THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SEEM TO FAVOR AN AREA OF ENHANCED DIVERGENCE
ALOFT OVER THAT AREA.

THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY START SHIFTING TO A SE DIRECTION ON
SATURDAY THEN TURNING SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A
SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...RELAXING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE PROCESS AS WELL...MEANING LIGHTER WINDS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO PUT TOO MUCH RAIN IN THE
LOCAL AREA FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
APPEARS TO BE MODEST AS WELL AS THE OVERALL INSTABILITY. HOWEVER
MOISTURE THEN INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE LOCAL PATTERN TO BE UNSETTLED...WHICH
COULD CAUSE AN INCREASE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN.


&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR ACROSS PR TERMINALS EARLY IN THE FCST
PERIOD. SCT-BKN AND OCCASIONAL OVC CLD LAYERS BTW FL030-FL150 ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FLYING AREA. MVFR CONDS
POSSIBLE AFTER 16Z AS SHRA/-TSRA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE MAINLY OVER
WESTERN INTERIOR PR AND OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. LOW LEVEL WINDS E-
ENE AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL BE UP TO 6 FEET TODAY BUT A NORTHERLY SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN THIS EVENING...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE SEAS
TO INCREASE UP TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT. RIP
CURRENT RISK IS MODERATE TODAY BUT THERE ARE SEVERAL AREAS WITH
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH
COAST OF PUERTO RICO...AS THE WAVE HEIGHTS INCREASE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 75 88 75 / 40 40 40 40
STT 87 76 86 74 / 40 40 40 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
213 PM AST FRI APR 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD DEEP LAYER LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC
IS SUSTAINING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE BROAD
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE LOW IS INDUCING A WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT....MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS
WILL VEER TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS PR
AND USVI.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THESE CLOUDS BLOCKED SOMEWHAT THE SOLAR
RADIATION...KEEPING THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S. SOME
SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO
AS A PATCHES OF MOISTURE HAS MOVED OVER THE USVI AND EASTERN PR.
LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE WEST INTERIOR AND
WEST PR.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL INDUCE A SOUTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE ISLANDS TONIGHT. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING PATCHES OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD
BOUNDARY OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...
A FEW ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN PR AND USVI AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING. ALSO...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF PR ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY...
LIMITING THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. SCT-BKN CLOUD LAYERS BTW
FL030-FL150 WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE FLYING AREA TONIGHT.
MVFR CONDITIONS STILL POSSIBLE AFTER 19Z AS SHRA IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE MAINLY OVER WESTERN INTERIOR PR AND OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS. LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE EAST AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS A BRIEF NORTHERLY
SWELL MOVES ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES.
THEREFORE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC
WATERS WATERS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SIGNIFICANTLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS SUBSIDING AROUND 2-4 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 88 75 90 / 40 40 40 40
STT 76 86 74 85 / 40 40 50 50

&&

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
631 AM AST SAT APR 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ENTERS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED
THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA AND NEARBY COASTAL WATERS. THIS RESULTED
IN FLOODING ACROSS MANY URBAN AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
A MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
TODAY...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF PR FIRST AND ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS...THEN AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER AND
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGES OF PR.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIPITABLE
WATER WILL REMAIN HIGH AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS NORTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND A NEW ONE MOVES NEAR OR
OVER THE FORECAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ALONG WITH AN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...THIS WILL LEAD TO A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN WITH
BEST SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE ISLAND. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY MID WEEK...ENHANCING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT TJSJ IN
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH AT LEAST 23/14Z. REST OF TAF SITES VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 23/18Z. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ
BETWEEN 23/18-23/22Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE SEAS UP TO 7
FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A HIGH
RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG THE NORTH FACING BEACHES OF PR...INCLUDING
CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE NORTHERN USVI. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS...SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS THE REST OF THE WATERS.


.CLIMATE...AS OF 5 AM AST...A RECORD RAINFALL OF 5.57 INCHES WAS
SET AT THE SAN JUAN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS BREAKS THE OLD
RECORD OF 4.67 SET IN 1973.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 78 89 79 / 60 40 40 20
STT 85 79 85 79 / 60 50 50 10

[cycloneye]

It was a real heavy downpour in San Juan and in other parts of PR in the overnight hours as over 5+ inches have fallen.Let's see how things evolve on this Saturday here.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
221 PM AST SAT APR 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS MOVES INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. A LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE
EASTERN USA WILL RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...RESULTING IN LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. LINGERING
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM HIGH THROUGH
THIS EVENING. SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS
MOST OF THE ISLANDS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS RETURNS TO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION TODAY. SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THESE
AREAS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE FLOODING THREAT REMAINS MODERATE
TO HIGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SAN JUAN...CAROLINA...LUQUILLO AND FAJARDO
DUE TO SATURATED SOILS FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL MOVE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FROM THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...KEEPING
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
AT THIS TIME...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS ACTIVE THAN TODAY
AS DRIER AIR FILTER IN FROM THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. LOCAL EFFECTS SUCH
AS SEA BREEZES AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL AID TO PRODUCE SOME
CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST PR.

NEXT ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY BY THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. AS A NEW SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES DURING BY
MIDWEEK...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS PUERTO RICO DURING
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR STILL POSSIBLE
AT LEAST UNTIL 23/23Z. TSRA ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT TJSJ/TIST/TJBQ/
TKPK/TNCM AS WELL AS IN THE VCTY OF TJMZ/TISX. SURFACE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN/NEAR SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH
THIS EVENING. SEAS IN NORTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO AROUND 5-7 FEET
THROUGH TONIGHT...SUBSIDING TO 3-6 FEET BY SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...MARINERS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION FOR SEAS UP TO 6 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 79 91 / 40 40 20 30
STT 79 85 79 86 / 50 50 10 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
517 AM AST SUN APR 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AS MOVES INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. A LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...RESULTING
IN LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS MOST OF
THE ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN...MOIST AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS RETURNS TO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS
NEAR 20 NORTH. CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
SINCE YESTERDAY AS DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS HAS FILTERED FROM
THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HOT TEMPERATURES BETWEEN
85-90 WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. LOCAL EFFECT SUCH
AS SEA BREEZES AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL AID TO PRODUCE CONVECTION
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY. SIMILAR
PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON MONDAY. THEN...
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A THICK LAYER OF MID-UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS ON TUESDAY.

NEXT ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY BY THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN THE UPPER LEVELS CROSSES THE
LOCAL REGION BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
HOWEVER...BETWEEN 16Z-22Z TSRA/SHRA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PR...CREATING AT LEAST MVFR
PERIODS AT TJSJ/TJBQ. SCT/BKN LAYERS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE ATLC WATERS AND TIST DUE TO SHRA. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FROM THE SOUTH AT 10-15 KT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT NORTHERN PR
TERMINALS AFTER 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...NORTH SWELL OF 4-6 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ACROSS
THE ISLANDS TODAY. THEN...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 2-4 FEET
THROUGH TUESDAY. THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS FOR THE EXPOSED BEACHES ALONG NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST
PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 90 77 / 50 30 30 10
STT 86 80 85 77 / 10 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
153 PM AST SUN APR 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
EARLY THIS WEEK. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN APPROACH
THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THIS MORNING AND EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON UNDER SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH CLOUDS MOVED ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THE WEST...AND DELAYED/INHIBITED THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...STILL POSSIBLE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA. IN
ADDITION...HAZY SKIES WILL CONTINUE...NAAPS GUIDANCE INDICATES
DUST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW.

ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS EARLY THIS
WEEK. THIS AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH DIURNAL
HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA EACH AFTERNOON UNDER A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW. THE LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK...AS A WEAKENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND A WEAK
SURFACE HIGH DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
STILL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF PUERTO RICO UNDER
THIS WIND FLOW.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT FROM
THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL COMBINE WITH ASSOCIATED FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS. THEREFORE...AT THIS TIME...THE NEXT ROUND OF
ACTIVE WEATHER COULD BE EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK. THIS MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS. HOWEVER...
THROUGH 22Z SHRA/ISOLD TSRA STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PR. THIS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR AT
TJSJ/TJBQ...BUT THE CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS MOMENT. SCT/BKN
LAYERS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS AND POSSIBLE OVER TIST
DUE TO SHRA. TJSJ 24/12Z SOUNDING DATA INDICATED A SSE WIND FLOW
AT 10-15 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT-CALM/VAR AFTER 24/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MARINERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPECT A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 78 88 / 20 20 20 20
STT 79 87 79 85 / 30 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
526 AM AST MON APR 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID TO UPPER TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FARTHER EAST OF THE REGION TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE AND
MOISTURE REMNANTS FROM AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUED TO FORM
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVERGENCE ZONE AND SLOWLY MOVE ONSHORE
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY PRODUCED PERIODS OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS THESE AREAS. RAINFALL SO FAR
WAS OF SHORT DURATION WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. THIS ADDED
MOISTURE ALONG WITH ALREADY AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF LOCALLY AND DIURNALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS OVER THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS. EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE ISLANDS
TODAY.

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE REGION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE
IS STILL EXPECTED TO POOL ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ALONG WITH THE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL AGAIN INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
ENHANCED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE ISLANDS DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS FAIRLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

PREVIOUS NAAPS AEROSOL ANALYSIS PRODUCT AS WELL AS SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUED TO SUGGEST SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST PARTICULATES ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION DUE TO COMBINATION
OF THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...AND MODERATE MID LEVEL
WESTERLIES. THE EXPECTED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION WILL HOWEVER
LESSEN THE EFFECTS OF THE DUST CONCENTRATION.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA. -SHRA POSSIBLE AT TJMZ AND TJPS AS SHRA
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY
THIS MORNING INCREASING SLIGHTLY AFTER 25/14Z BUT WILL CONTINUE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY...
GRADUALLY CAUSING CIGS AT AROUND FL080. SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS
CENTRAL PR AFTER 25/16Z...COULD CAUSE VCTS AT TJSJ.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY DUE TO THE
SUBSIDING NORTHERLY SWELL AND OVERALL LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS. THE
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO BE REDUCED TO MODERATE BY
6 AM AST THIS MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 88 76 / 30 20 20 20
STT 87 78 85 78 / 10 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
313 PM AST MON APR 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST OVER THE REGION. THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MOISTURE WILL POOL OVER THE ISLANDS DURING MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SURFACE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
MAINLAND PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
THE ISLAND AT LEAST UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. THE SOILS ARE
ALREADY SATURATED DUE TO THE PREVIOUS RAINS THAT AFFECTED THE
ISLANDS DURING THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...ANY PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN
COULD LEAD TO MUDSLIDES...URBAN FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING ARE
SLIGHT TO MODERATE.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH....A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FOR TUESDAY. IF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE CORRECT...ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CAN BE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.
LOW AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS THE INSTABILITY INCREASE AND THE INFLOW
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
EACH DAY. AS A RESULT THE RISK OF FLOODING CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO THROUGH 25/22Z. THIS MAY RESULT IN
PERIODS OF MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDS AT JSJ/JPS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE MAINLY VFR WITH PASSING SHOWERS. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...HOWEVER FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED INDUCED
SURFACE TROUGH MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS AND WINDS IN
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE LOCAL WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES AT LEAST
UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 88 76 88 / 30 50 20 20
STT 78 85 78 85 / 30 40 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
421 AM AST TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS....
BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LOCAL REGION THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY INDUCED LOW LEVEL TROUGHINESS
AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A SHORT
WAVE MOVED ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS BUT WILL BE
QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE REGION. MOISTURE ALONG A SLOWLY DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO POOL ACROSS THE REGION DURING MOST OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF NOCTURNAL AND DAYTIME CONVECTION
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE TROUGH COMBINED WITH POOLING OF DEEP MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SOIL ACROSS THE ISLANDS REMAIN VERY SATURATED
ESPECIALLY ACROSS PUERTO RICO. THEREFORE ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
WILL WORSEN THE SITUATION AND LEAD TO FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE ALONG WITH MINOR FLOODING OF RIVERS AND
STREAMS. IN ADDITION...RECENT RAINS FROM PREVIOUS DAYS HAVE LEFT
AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN VERY UNSTABLE. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EVEN
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY WILL LEAD TO MUDSLIDES AND ROCKFALL
DUE TO THE LOOSE SOIL. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALONG WITH THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
A MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND POTENTIAL FOR GOOD RAINS AND CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PUERTO RICO TODAY.

ALTHOUGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND PWAT VALUES ARE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...EXPECT THE LOCAL AIRMASS TO
REMAIN VERY UNSETTLED WITH ENHANCED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY
TO PERSIST EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA. -SHRA POSSIBLE AT TJSJ AND TIST AS MOISTURE
APPROACHES SLOWLY TO THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
UNTIL 26/14Z...INCREASING SLIGHTLY AFTER THAT AND BECOMING MORE
EASTERLY WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS...BUT MAY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AT TIMES. CIGS AT AROUND FL070 ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL PR AFTER 26/16Z...COULD
CAUSE VCTS ACROSS THE TERMINALS IN PR.

&&

.MARINE...RECENT DATA FROM THE SURROUNDING BUOYS SUGGEST SEAS AND
SWELL ACTION HAVE SUBSIDED. WINDS WILL HOWEVER GRADUALLY INCREASE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND SEAS WILL FOLLOW. THEREFORE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST THE EASTERN QUADRANT
OF THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ELSEWHERE MODELS
SUGGEST SEAS TO REMAIN 6 FEET OR LESS DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 76 87 76 / 30 60 70 20
STT 87 78 85 78 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
208 PM AST TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TODAY AND TOMORROW. AT LOW LEVEL...A SET OF LOW LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF
THE ISLANDS AND PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IS
EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. NOW...TO THE WEST OF MAINLAND PUERTO
RICO...A CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS OBSERVED OVER THE EAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ALTHOUGH...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS
IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY...A FADING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT TROPICAL MOISTURE TO POOL OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEK. IN ADDITION...THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE MADDEN- JULIAN
OSCILLATION...MJO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LAYER OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS CREATED MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. THE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN
THUNDERSTORMS FORMED OVER THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE IN THE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. SOME
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS THE METROPOLITAN AREA OF
SAN JUAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. UNDER THE CURRENT UNSTABLE WEATHER
PATTERN AND THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE CONTINUE TO EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
SURROUNDING WATERS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE SOILS ARE
ALREADY SATURATED DUE TO THE PREVIOUS RAINFALL EVENTS. AS A RESULT
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO URBAN FLOODING...FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN UNSTABLE PATTERN OVER THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...THE GFS IS SUGGESTING THE ISLANDS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A NEGATIVE PHASE OF THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION...
MJO...WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE
REGION. THIS FACTOR WILL COMBINE WITH PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
TO PRODUCE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EACH
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO THROUGH 26/22Z. THIS MAY RESULT IN
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS AT JSJ/JPS/JBQ LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR WITH PASSING SHOWERS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.MARINE...THE SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED BELOW THE PRECAUTIONARY
STATEMENTS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MARINERS CAN EXPECT SEAS
BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS BELOW 18 KNOTS. HOWEVER LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS
AND WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 88 76 89 / 20 40 30 40
STT 78 85 77 84 / 20 30 30 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
336 AM AST WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMNANTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION
AND ASSOCIATED DIVERGENT PATTERN IN COMBINATION WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER HISPANIOLA WILL MAINTAIN AN UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR THIS MORNING DEPICTED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...
LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND AREAS SO FAR THIS
MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER HISPANIOLA WILL MAINTAIN THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMNANTS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS ANS SURROUNDING WATERS TODAY. A WEAK MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION WILL AID TO CREATE AN
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

VARIABLE CLOUDY SKIES WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SURROUNDING WATERS THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG
CORDILLERA CENTRAL. UNDER THE CURRENT UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN AND
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SOILS ARE ALREADY SATURATED DUE TO THE PREVIOUS RAINFALL EVENTS.
AS A RESULT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO URBAN FLOODING...
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. IN THE LONG TERM...IT LOOKS LIKE THAT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND POSSIBLE BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGED ACROSS ATLANTIC WATERS JUST
N OF LOCAL ISLANDS ... WITH SCT-BKN CLD LYRS FL020...FL060 AND BKN-
OVC FL100-FL150. EMBEDDED SHRA N OR PR AND NRN VIRGIN ISLANDS OVR
ATL WATERS N OF LOCAL ISLANDS WITH ISOLD TSRA TOPS 350-380. MTN TOP
OBSCR DUE TO LOW CLDS AND SHRA ERN PR TIL 27/14Z. MSTLY CLDY CONDS
FCST THRU 27/14Z WITH PREVAILING VFR AT TAF SITES TIL 27/16Z. AFT
27/16Z INCR CLD COVERAGE OVR INTERIOR SECTION OF PR WITH DVLPMNT OF
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA VCTY TJBQ... TJMZ....TJSJ...TNCM AND TKPK. ISOLD
SHRA VCNTY TISX AND TIST DURG PRD. SFC WINDS FM SE 5 TO 10KT. WINDS
ABV FL060 UP TO FL200 WSW 15-25 KT BCMG FM W 30-40 KT ABV FL200. MAX
WIND 60-70KTS NR FL 450.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY UP TO 6 FEET THIS MORNING AS
A NORTHERLY SWELL MOVES INTO THE LOCAL AREA. THE RIP CURRENT RISK
IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGH TODAY ACROSS THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
131 PM AST WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
MOVE EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AS AN INVERTED
TROUGH SPREADS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND HISPANIOLA. THIS
PATTERN WILL PROMOTE A WARM/MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA...
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE.

AT UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO
THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A DIVERGENT
PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH
UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS MOVING OVER THE ISLANDS FROM TIME TO
TIME. THERE IS IN FACT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING OVER THE
AREA...WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION REACHING THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY EVENING. A THIRD PERTURBATION WILL THEN
REACH THE FORECAST AREA LATER ON SATURDAY.

THEREFORE...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...WITH DEEP CONVECTION AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CORDILLERA AS
WELL AS NORTHERN SLOPES EACH DAY. DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED
SOILS...HEAVY RAINS COULD LEAD TO URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CONDS WILL BE LIKELY NEAR TSRA THIS AFTERNOON.
TJSJ AND TJBQ MAY EXPERIENCE TEMPO PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VIS
BETWEEN 18Z-22Z. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS INTERIOR PR. MOSTLY
VFR COND FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL WINDS 5-15 KT FROM
THE SSE FROM SFC TO FL050.

&&

.MARINE...A COMBINATION OF NORTHERLY SWELL AND EASTERLY WIND WAVES
WILL BUILD THE SEAS UP TO 6 FEET THROUGH THIS EVENING...INCREASING
THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FROM MODERATE TO HIGH THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
THEREFORE...RIP CURRENT STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL THURSDAY
MORNING...FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
NORTH COAST BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO AND CULEBRA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 86 76 87 / 30 60 40 50
STT 76 86 76 83 / 50 50 50 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
350 AM AST THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMNANTS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATES ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS MOISTURE IS
SUPPORTED BY A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HISPANIOLA ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS NORTH OF THE
REGION. THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING DEPICTED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS WELL AS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY IS
THE RESULT OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMNANTS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION AIDED BY A SURFACE TROUGH OVER
HISPANIOLA AND A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE REGION. THIS IS ALMOST THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN THAT PERSISTED
OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE PAST DAYS.

TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS DAYS. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS FEATURES WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL
EFFECTS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG CORDILLERA CENTRAL LATE IN THE MORNING AND EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...MOVING BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS OTHER PORTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS. THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEREFORE SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER EASTERN AND EASTERN INTERIOR
PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS OVER PARTS OF THE USVI. THEREFORE...A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DUE TO ALREADY
SATURATED SOILS...HEAVY RAINS COULD LEAD TO URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING.

IN THE LONG TERM...THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTED ABUNDANT DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM SOUTH
AMERICA BY THE UPCOMING WEEK. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS THRU 28/14Z...WITH SFC WND CALM TO
LGT/VRB FOR PR TERMINALS. LGT WND MAINLY FM E AT TISX/TIST AND
TNCM/TKPK. SCT LYRS 018-025...SCT OCNL BKN 030...050 AND BKN-OVC LYR
100-120. SCT SHRA OVR ERN PR AND COASTAL WATERS BTW PR AND NRN
LEEWARDS. ISOLD TSRA OVR LOCAL WATERS MAX TOPS 350-400. BRIEF MTN
TOP OBSCR PSBL IN SHRA/LOW CLD CIG OVR ERN PR TIL 28/14Z. AFT 28/15Z
SHRA DVLPMNT LIKELY OVR NRN AND W PR AND WITH ISOLD TSRA AT TJBQ AFT
28/16Z. ADDITIONAL SHRA PSBL AT TJSJ...TJNR 28/18Z-23Z. WINDS WILL
CONT FM ESE EXCEPT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS DEVELOPING AFT 28/14Z
WITH WND 10-15KT OCNL HIR GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY...DECREASING
SLIGHTLY FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE IS STILL A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND CULEBRA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 88 75 / 60 40 50 40
STT 84 76 83 76 / 50 50 50 40