Texas Spring 2016

[TarrantWx]

More strong wording from FWD in their most recent forecast discussion.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1222 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...LATEST REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...

.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECASTS WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL LOOK GOOD...ALONG
WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES OCCURRING ALONG AND EAST OF I-35/35W. A
STRONG NEGATIVE TILTED TROUGH CONTINUES ROTATING NORTHEAST OVER
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AT MIDDAY. A BROAD SURFACE LOW
AND TRIPLE-POINT WAS NOTED FROM SNYDER TO SEYMOUR...WITH A WARM
FRONT TAILING BACK ESE ALONG A BRIDGEPORT/BOWIE...TO MCKINNEY...
TO COOPER/SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE. A DRYLINE TAILING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FROM THE SURFACE LOW WAS ALREADY BULGING EAST TOWARD ABILENE IN
RESPONSE TO ENHANCED MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 IN THE WARM AND HUMID SECTOR EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL COINCIDE WITH STRONGAFTERNOON
HEATING TO PRODUCE A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
INCREASE BY 2 PM CDT AND AFTER FOR THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
STORMS ALONG OR JUST WEST OF I-35 IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT. INITIALLY...DISCRETE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LOW LCL/S WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS SURFACE DEW PT TEMPERATURES
ARE HIGH AND IN THE LOWER-MID 70S WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BIG WILD CARD LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE HOW LONG DISCRETE STORMS WILL
OCCUR...AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OCCURS QUICKLY AT CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE AND MAY RESULT IN INFLOW INTERRUPTION WITH IF STORMS
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SOONER.

IF ACTIVITY BECOMES TOO WIDESPREAD TOO FAST...THEN DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WILL BE LESS LIKELY. HOWEVER...BOWING LINE SEGMENTS OR
LEWPS WITH TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS DUE
TO VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE
AREA WITH CURVED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS NOTED ON FORCAST SOUNDSING.
VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH DISCRETE
CELLS AS INSTABILITY WILL BE PUSHING BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG WITH
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL CAPE BELOW CLOUD BASE FOR POTENTIAL
TORNADOGENESIS. SEVERAL OFFICES INCLUDING OURS ARE SENDING UP
SPECIAL MIDDAY SOUNDINGS TO ASSESS OUR ENVIRONMENT AND POTENTIAL
AND THE FEELING IS THIS COULD BE A BIG SEVERE WEATHER DAY.

AFTER COLLABORATION...THE ENHANCED RISK WAS EXTENDED SOUTH ALL
THE WAY INTO EASTERN CENTRAL TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS DUE TO THE
STRONG HODOGRAPHS AND INSTABILITY. ALL PARTIES SHOULD BE ON HIGH
ALERT BEGINNING AFTER 2 PM AND CONTINUING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER. A SQUALL LINE WILL EVOLVE BY THIS
EVENING ACROSS OUR E/SE COUNTIES WITH THE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
BECOMING MORE DOMINANT.

[gboudx]

Sounds like a Tornado Watch should be coming soon by reading that discussion. It definitely feels like a steam room outside and the sun does peak through every now and then.

[Tireman4]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/hgx/ ... _full1.png

[EF-5bigj]

Kind of strange that today might have more tornado potential then Tuesday did

[cheezyWXguy]

Why would people think NWS cried wolf? There were tornadoes on Tuesday, and they did do damage to homes and businesses.

Yes, there was damage in Grayson county. But people tend to only be focused on their local area. For folks in DFW, Tuesday was most likely perceived as crying wolf. They don't understand, or care, about the complexities in forecasting weather. They only care what happens to them. I've seen many comments on Facebook about people questioning the NWS about "crying wolf again" which is what prompted me to start the discussion.

While I do agree with you that most people perceive Tuesday as overhyped because their specific areas themselves did not experience severe weather, I do think the event as a whole did not pan out entirely as expected. The risk certainly warranted the attention it got, and the moderate risk was easily justifiable based on what could have happened. I do, however, think that the PDS tornado watch was a bit overkill though. I admit I expected quite a few more tornadoes than what actually occurred and definitely started buying into all the PDS TOR indicators on the short-term models, but it seems to me that official PDS watches are generally reserved for the most severe of events. Tuesday did end up bringing quite the severe outbreak, with a ton of severe warnings and reports, but a total of 3 tornadoes within the PDS area, the highest being an F1, seems like things did not necessarily play out as initially thought.

This is not meant to criticize the SPC at all, as I think they handled the event very well given such a highly variable setup. Their judgement and experience far exceeds my own.

[gboudx]

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 124
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
105 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

TORNADO WATCH 124 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC001-027-035-085-093-097-099-113-119-121-139-143-145-147-161-
181-193-213-217-221-223-231-251-257-277-281-289-293-309-331-333-
337-349-367-379-395-397-425-439-467-497-300300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0124.160429T1805Z-160430T0300Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANDERSON BELL BOSQUE
COLLIN COMANCHE COOKE
CORYELL DALLAS DELTA
DENTON ELLIS ERATH
FALLS FANNIN FREESTONE
GRAYSON HAMILTON HENDERSON
HILL HOOD HOPKINS
HUNT JOHNSON KAUFMAN
LAMAR LAMPASAS LEON
LIMESTONE MCLENNAN MILAM
MILLS MONTAGUE NAVARRO
PARKER RAINS ROBERTSON
ROCKWALL SOMERVELL TARRANT
VAN ZANDT WISE

Radar lighting up.

[Ellsey]

Why would people think NWS cried wolf? There were tornadoes on Tuesday, and they did do damage to homes and businesses.

Yes, there was damage in Grayson county. But people tend to only be focused on their local area. For folks in DFW, Tuesday was most likely perceived as crying wolf. They don't understand, or care, about the complexities in forecasting weather. They only care what happens to them. I've seen many comments on Facebook about people questioning the NWS about "crying wolf again" which is what prompted me to start the discussion.

I guess being in McKinney I'm close enough to Grayson County that I consider them fairly close. Ah well.

[Tireman4]

34
FXUS64 KHGX 291742
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1242 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
29/18Z TAFS HAVE INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH CEILINGS AROUND 2500-3500 FEET. LOOKING
FOR SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE TO INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING AND ON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOTS OF TSRA/VCTS IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS (ALONG WITH DECREASING WINDS)...BUT HARD TO PINPOINT
WHERE/WHEN ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES. TAFS
WILL BE UPDATED AS THIS EVENT UNFOLDS AND EVOLVES. 42

[Tireman4]

‏@NWSHouston
Skywarn spotter activation will probably be needed in the College Station area around 3 pm. We will have the HAM @skywarn net active at 3 pm

[Ralph's Weather]

Here in downtown Tyler we had a bit of hail right around noon though the storm mostly missed downtown only dropping light rain. Will be watching things as the afternoon goes on.

[Houstonia]

‏@NWSHouston
Skywarn spotter activation will probably be needed in the College Station area around 3 pm. We will have the HAM @skywarn net active at 3 pm

I usually listen to radioreference/broadcastify during weather events Some states, like Arkansas have a really active skywarn team that you can listen to online. - is the SE Texas skywarn available online anywhere?

[Tireman4]

‏@NWSHouston
Skywarn spotter activation will probably be needed in the College Station area around 3 pm. We will have the HAM @skywarn net active at 3 pm

I usually listen to radioreference/broadcastify during weather events Some states, like Arkansas have a really active skywarn team that you can listen to online. - is the SE Texas skywarn available online anywhere?

Now, that I do not know. I would think Vbhouston, Porta and Srain would know.

[gboudx]

From jeff:

****Potentially dangerous weather event late this afternoon into early Saturday****

Flash Flood Watch is in effect

Tornado Watch will likely be issued in the next few hours.


Air mass is becoming very unstable given the large amount of heating we have seen this morning.

Cap is eroding and recent cell development over Fort Bend County is likely the start of scattered development. Severe threat is high the next several hours west of I-45 where heating has pushed instability into the 3000-4000 J/kg range. Cap is still weakening….but once it is removed…look out…things are going to blow. Think the tornado threat is higher the next several hours in the Huntsville to Columbus area where instability is maximized and then this threat shifts slowly eastward into the evening hours and also will include damaging winds and large hail.

Getting very worried about a significant flash flood event across SE TX tonight. Low level flow all the way from the Caribbean is transporting tremendous moisture into the region. PWS currently surging to over 2.0 inches is tropical. Excellent low level inflow against a slow WSW to ENE boundary is very worrying as this is a classic flash flood setup for SE TX. Recent meso scale models including the HRRR blast the area with tremendous rainfall overnight. All indicators are pointing toward a significant event…but the exact location remains in question….must watch radar trends closely the next several hours.

Tremendous rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches per hour will be possible with these storms which is going to lead to rapid flash flooding. Everyone should have a plan of what they are going to do if flooding begins at your location. Such rainfall rates can produce flooding well away from creeks and bayous where the underground system becomes overwhelmed with the large volume of water in a short period of time.

I cannot stress enough not to drive into flooded roadways!

[cheezyWXguy]

Starting to see rotation on a number of the storms in north TX. The one west of Denton and the other north of Collin County look the strongest at the moment.

[Tireman4]

This will be a long day and night. Please be careful all. Stay alert. This is an ever changing situation.

[EF-5bigj]

Storm near Chomanche looks like it's hooking.

[cheezyWXguy]

Storm near Chomanche looks like it's hooking.

Storm in Parker County is starting to rotate as well. Storm near Lawton, OK is really rotating as well.

[EF-5bigj]

That storm near OKC is hooking big time....

[WeatherNewbie]

Interesting how there seems to be a bubble around the Metroplex right now... though I'm not complaining.

[gboudx]

Storm east of Glen Rose definitely has rotation happening.