Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[hurricanetrack]

100 knots of shear in April is fine by me. If it's that way in August then just turn this site in to a hurricane history archive LOL.

[WPBWeather]

Almost 100kts of shear in the Caribbean.

I don't know how meaningful that is for future storm forecasting. La Nina is coming fast.

[TheStormExpert]

It is very typical for late April to see strong wind shear throughout the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, and Tropical Atlantic. Though the strongest wind shear is located in the Western Gulf of Mexico, not the Caribbean.

[NDG]

Um...holy mother of sst's lol. Either that was some serious warming or was NOAA's sst map correct all the time?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... pics_1.png

I think the NOAA/NESDIS site has been the one right all along.

[NDG]

Something we have not seen in a while, a fairly impressive instability across the Caribbean.

[wxman57]

Um...holy mother of sst's lol. Either that was some serious warming or was NOAA's sst map correct all the time?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... pics_1.png

I think the NOAA/NESDIS site has been the one right all along.

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anoma ... 8.2016.gif

I don't think there has been significant warming in the MDR. We have to remember that what we're looking at is temperature anomaly, not temperatures. It's most likely that all maps were correct, but each may be using a different climatological database or time period to produce the anomaly graphic. NCEP's graphic still has cooler-than-normal temps east of the Caribbean, though not as much below normal as previously. Weaker easterly trades in that region could be the source of a decreased cool anomaly.

[SFLcane]

57...

[NDG]

IMO the CDAS data is probably unfiltered information while the NOAA/NESDIS information is filtered and processed.
When looking at CDAS anomaly map on other parts of the world it does not make sense, look for example closer to the poles, especially near Antarctica.

[stormwise]

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/rtg_high_res/

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I just reviewed all of the SST anomalies for March of every year coming off an El Nino, including 2016, and then the hurricane seasons of all such years, and CSU/Phil Klotzbach's analog years for this year. After this review, the years that 2016 appears to most closely resemble to date include 1966, 1992, 1998, and 2003, in my opinion. All of those years still had at least some El Nino influence that was still active, while having some warm Atlantic anomalies as well.

1966 almost was a Modoki El Nino. There was a decent pool of somewhat weak warm anomalies in the CPAC that year, but the EPAC was cold. The Atlantic had some weak warm anomalies as well. That was also the year Inez snaked through the Caribbean, through the Florida Keys, and eventually to Mexico, the only really big storm that year.

1992 looked like a La Nina, but the EPAC MDR was very, very warm, which helped lead to a record hurricane season there. The Atlantic also became quite cool, though not cool enough to stop Andrew from rampaging through the Bahamas, Florida, and Louisiana. The Atlantic season may have had more than the seven known storms that year as well.

1998 was interesting. Warm anomalies were still present early in the EPAC, but were gone by the peak. This may have led to an early spike in that basin, along with a quiet Atlantic, followed by the subsequent role reversal. Georges was a destructive storm whose path was in some ways like a cross between the aforementioned Inez and Andrew: it sliced through the Caribbean and then hit the Florida Keys before heading into the Mississippi Coast. And of course Mitch pummeled Central America. Bonnie deserves some honorable mention for its North Carolina hit as well.

2003 was actually still somewhat warm in the EPAC, while also boasting warm Atlantic waters as well. The MDR produced monsters Fabian and Isabel (the latter of which slammed into the East Coast), but otherwise you get a feeling looking back that the Caribbean and Gulf got a bit lucky not to get hit harder. There were lots of tropical storms in those two areas, but only Claudette and Erika became Category 1 hurricanes there. And the only other major hurricane that year, Kate, wasn't a threat to land and didn't really intensify until it got to subtropical latitudes.

So could these be the top analogs? Time will tell, but three of them were mentioned in CSU/Phil Klotzbach's outlook. I don't have enough 1941 data, but the Atlantic just didn't seem as warm in 1973 and 1983 overall compared to what we are seeing so far in 2016. I also can't help but wonder if a warm vs. cool Atlantic is a major cause for active and inactive phases. With a so far warm Atlantic this year, is the active period truly over, or is the Atlantic just taking a pause, so to speak?

-Andrew92

[NDG]

Nice research & writeup Andrew92, perhaps the best analog year for this year is '66, one storm you left off was Maj Hurricane Alma which formed in the Caribbean in early June, affected western Cuba, Key West and parts of the Peninsula.
I don't agree with the CSU team in that '83 is an analog year, the Atlantic was much colder and Niño 1+2 along with parts of Niño 3 were boiling hot during most of the hurricane season, that year should had not been in their formulation.

[Andrew92]

I actually left Alma out on purpose. Although currently listed as a major, its pressure was a bit high (though admittedly so was Danny's last year) at 970 mb, and was in the Gulf. Based on those two factors, plus the fact that it was so early in June, I have some doubts this was really a major. It was a healthy hurricane though, probably a Category 2 that weakened to just barely a hurricane by the time it made landfall.

I am agreeing more that 1983 probably isn't the answer either, as healthy warm anomalies were present at the Equator in the EPAC that hurricane season, while those seem to be on the way out now. I am still not giving up on 1959 though, as that La Nina was much more classic, but had healthy warm anomalies further north. In fact, that year was quite similar to 1992 in many ways. However, with a warmish Atlantic, there may be a hair more activity this year than either 1959 or 1992 (keep in mind the latter has potentially I think like four storms or so that may be included in re-analysis).

-Andrew92

[Nimbus]

1992 would have been a quiet season if it weren't for that fluke Andrew.
So is there a consensus at the NHC for a quiet season based on Neutral ENSO and the other current indicators?

[TheStormExpert]

1992 is a possibility, but seems like the least likely analog in my opinion.

[gatorcane]

I have 1992 as a possible analog. Besides Andrew was a lackluster year.

But even if the season ends up with below normal numbers as I am predicting, as with any season (such as 1992), all it takes is one.

[SFLcane]

I'd be shocked if 2016 is as unfavorable as 92. Expecting a pretty busy season this yr slightly above average. If instability continues its trend upward watch out.

[Hurricaneman]

There seems to be some cooling in the EPAC between 15N and 30N which could also be a sign of possibly lower shear in the Atlantic and SSTAs are warmer in the atlantic than 1992 and lower in the EPAC than so it seems if anything they are currently similar to 2004 around its peak and we all know what happened that year but things could change as the EPAC MDR could be similar to that year the ENSO will be cooler so what I'm saying is that don't write this season off until we see signs that this season will be normal or below

We'll also have to watch how the SSTAs in the EPAC MDR and Tropical Atlantic behave the next few months to gague how this season will play out

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[CaliforniaResident]

What about 2010 for an analog year? The sharp and strong transition to a strong La Nina could be very similar to the one that spring/summer.

[Darvince]

So far the +PDO and the strong -SOI still show that the atmosphere doesn't want to go into niña mode, so I'd doubt that we're going to have a strong, fast oncoming niña. Perhaps a weak one between -0.5C and -1.0C.

[TheAustinMan]

The Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPS) has completed its monthly run. Favorable sea surface temperatures are depicted much of the Atlantic, and Eastern Pacific SSTs are neutral to slightly warm.