2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[chaser1]

Didn't take long for the upgraded GFS to spin up a phantom storm

Hey, what's 500 miles amongst friends Yeah, that last run showing downstream development SW of Hispanola seems like a bad dose of crack, lol. I'll guess it'll come back with a weaker Eastern Gulf solution given the lobbed off piece of energy from that previously depicted stalled front. Curious to see if/when the EURO begins to depict long range falling pressures over the Southeast.

[TheStormExpert]

Well the 00z GFS has switched development again to now just off the East Coast with even less development on it's 06z run. The Euro has joined in as well and in the same timeframe being even more bullish than the GFS.

So in just 36hrs. or so we went from slight development nearly 15 days out in the Eastern GoM, then to more robust development in the Western Atlantic, now development in the medium-range just off the U.S. East Coast.

00z GFS 5/13/16


06z GFS 5/13/16


00z Euro 5/13/16

[Kingarabian]

Seems like these early season east coast retrograde systems are becoming a norm now.

[WPBWeather]

Well the 00z GFS has switched development again to now just off the East Coast with even less development on it's 06z run. The Euro has joined in as well and in the same timeframe being even more bullish than the GFS.

So in just 36hrs. or so we went from slight development nearly 15 days out in the Eastern GoM, then to more robust development in the Western Atlantic, now development in the medium-range just off the U.S. East Coast.

00z GFS 5/13/16


06z GFS 5/13/16


00z Euro 5/13/16

I am so glad it is all clear now

[TheStormExpert]

I am so glad it is all clear now

What is all clear?

[WPBWeather]

I am so glad it is all clear now

What is all clear?

Nothing, it seems. Even after model upgrades.

[RL3AO]

I hope everyone wasn't expecting huge changes from the GFS. When you upgrade a global model, you're really just hoping for a 1% increase in accuracy/skill.

[ColdFusion]

I hope everyone wasn't expecting huge changes from the GFS. When you upgrade a global model, you're really just hoping for a 1% increase in accuracy/skill.

1% ??? At what cost? 50M at least I bet. Article posted yesterday says it's still 25% behind the EMCWF. http://mashable.com/2016/05/11/weather-service-supercomputer-gfs/#E7Pfae24EZqN

ECMWF recently upgraded their global model from 14-km to 9-km (compared to GFS current grid spacing of 13-km) and achieved a major skill improvement," Maue said. "The 'gap' between ECMWF and GFS widened significantly — by almost 25 percent,

[tropicwatch]

We will have to wait and see what the models do this season. It makes no sense to cut them down before the season begins.

[tarheelprogrammer]

We will have to wait and see what the models do this season. It makes no sense to cut them down before the season begins.

I agree let us give the models a chance.

[RL3AO]

I hope everyone wasn't expecting huge changes from the GFS. When you upgrade a global model, you're really just hoping for a 1% increase in accuracy/skill.

1% ??? At what cost? 50M at least I bet. Article posted yesterday says it's still 25% behind the EMCWF. http://mashable.com/2016/05/11/weather-service-supercomputer-gfs/#E7Pfae24EZqN

ECMWF recently upgraded their global model from 14-km to 9-km (compared to GFS current grid spacing of 13-km) and achieved a major skill improvement," Maue said. "The 'gap' between ECMWF and GFS widened significantly — by almost 25 percent,

He said the gap widened by 25%. It was a fairly small (but significant gap) to begin with. If we go by the skill scores, the Euro is 2 to 3% better in a 5 day forecast. If it improved by 25% then it may be a 4% gap which is what the last six weeks is.



http://models.weatherbell.com/temperature.php

[TheStormExpert]

Still feel we will need to watch the Atlantic at the tail end of this month or the first 2-3 weeks of June for some sort of Tropical or Subtropical development. The models (GFS and Euro) are giving off that vibe that something will try and get going sooner or later. Still thinking the second named storm may form betwenn the dates June 11-20, my guess on location is either the Western Caribbean or Southern Gulf of Mexico but the Western Atlantic and off the U.S. East Coast may be a possibility as well.

[stormwise]

OLR model suggests a active convection period in the last week of May in the GOM. .

[ColdFusion]

He said the gap widened by 25%. It was a fairly small (but significant gap) to begin with. If we go by the skill scores, the Euro is 2 to 3% better in a 5 day forecast. If it improved by 25% then it may be a 4% gap which is what the last six weeks is.

Thanks for the clarification, that sounds much more reasonable

[Hurricaneman]

The 18zGFS and the 12zEURO has a Subtropical system try to form off the coast between day 8 and day 9 but being that is that far out is a red flag and need to see the timetable come down before we really take a look at it

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[stormwise]

OLR model suggests a active convection period in the last week of May in the GOM. .

[tropicwatch]

Both the GFS and Euro still depicting low pressure off the east coast around Sunday. There are pretty much in agreement on location and pressure so far.

[Hurricaneman]

Both the GFS and Euro still depicting low pressure off the east coast around Sunday. There are pretty much in agreement on location and pressure so far.

looks extratropical, no named system from this

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[TheStormExpert]

Not even the Euro can be trusted sometimes after 4-5 days! Although this would likely be cold-core at best due to SST's being too cold.

[terstorm1012]

is that storm depicted for early next week on the Euro and GFS tropical? It seems more a nor'easter to me