2016 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

A few runs ago the ECMWF had some development, but not anymore. Not sure if there's anything to see here but it's a sign the El nino effects from last season are still evident.

The way the tropical Pacific is set for a very rapid transition into La Nina, I'm using 2010 as the analog for such a hard and fast transition, which tied for the fewest named storms and set the record for the fewest hurricanes in the short recorded history of the EPAC. It will be very, very different from the past 4 years.

The transition isn't as fast as it was 2010 and we still have the 2nd warmest SST's in April. The CFS, NMME, and ECMWF all call for continued very warm SST's and the CFS and ECMWF call for upward motion to be focused over the region. Still with the insistence of upward motion over the Indian Ocean, and the unceraintiies on how warm the central Atlantic will be, thus affecting the positioning of the ITCZ, along with the strength of the La Nina creates a lot of uncertainty. If PDO slips, and we get a 2010-esque La Nina, a very silent EPAC season is possible. However, I could easily see a solid EPAC season as well.

[NDG]

The latest Euro perhaps pointing to a not so busy hurricane season for the EPAC than what it showed in its previous forecast.

[Kingarabian]

It's now showing more normal pressures but if you look at the dry/wet forecasts, it's showing a lot of green accross the Epac which I believe means a wetter pattern.

[Yellow Evan]

The latest Euro perhaps pointing to a not so busy hurricane season for the EPAC than what it showed in its previous forecast.

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls13/dat ... OsNDM9.png
http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls13/dat ... KqciW8.png
http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls06/dat ... ZOR4Uf.png
http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls14/dat ... HA1JHc.png

Not really different from the forecasts shown in 2014-15. A bit of an El Nino pattern shown there actually.

[Siker]

The latest Euro perhaps pointing to a not so busy hurricane season for the EPAC than what it showed in its previous forecast.

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls13/dat ... OsNDM9.png
http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls13/dat ... KqciW8.png
http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls06/dat ... ZOR4Uf.png
http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls14/dat ... HA1JHc.png

Not really different from the forecasts shown in 2014-15. A bit of an El Nino pattern shown there actually.

In terms of general pressure distribution between the Atlantic and Pacific, I see your point. But compare that image to last year's forecast for ASO at this time:

[Kingarabian]

As others have pointed out, last year the Euro was forcasting higher pressures in the Atlantic that never materialized.

I'm not saying conditions will be perfect like last year but they won't be as bad as they were in 2010.

[Kingarabian]

Philip Klotzbach
‏@philklotzbach
Tropical eastern Pacific much cooler than 1998 (last strong #ElNino) at this time. Tropical central Pacific warmer.

[Yellow Evan]

Philip Klotzbach
‏@philklotzbach
Tropical eastern Pacific much cooler than 1998 (last strong #ElNino) at this time. Tropical central Pacific warmer.

Pretty sure he means just the equatorial region.

SST anomalies were the 2nd warmest on record in April after 2015.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/da ... Timeseries

[NDG]

It's now showing more normal pressures but if you look at the dry/wet forecasts, it's showing a lot of green accross the Epac which I believe means a wetter pattern.

It still shows a wet pattern but not as wet as previous forecast.

[cycloneye]

Invest 90E is up

[Kingarabian]

Lot's of low pressure but nothing spinning up.

[cycloneye]

It looks like EPAC will remain quiet for a while.

EricBlake12 · 14m14 minutes ago

MJO expected to take its time coming back to the W Hemisphere- good chance of no EPAC TCs til June at this rate

[NDG]

Yeap, I wouldn't be surprise if the first EPAC system does not form until sometime in June, like in '98, some atmospheric conditions are not the best right now.

[bg1]

Is it normal for the MJO to be as weak as it's been in a weakening El Niño? I know it's erratic in La Nina.

[stormwise]

Time to start watching the models.

[stormwise]

GEPS mjo signal is even stronger now for the W-HEM is a good match up with the cfs posted above and M Ventrice's divergence chart below.

[Kingarabian]

GFS has a southern Mexico/Central America threat on the 04th.

[Hurricaneman]

GFS has a southern Mexico/Central America threat on the 04th.

Still long range so it may not happen but it's sniffing out a pattern where there may be some tropical activity after the first week of June

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[Yellow Evan]

EPS ensembles have been showing stuff in the longer range, like next weekend off the Mexico coast. It'll popup on the main ECMWf in a run or two most likely. Still nada from NASA which was decent in the long range last year in these situations.

[Kingarabian]