Bay of Bengal: ROANU - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

91B INVEST 160512 0600 4.5N 83.8E IO 15 1007

[cycloneye]

91B has a very large moisture field and even if it does not develop into a Tropical Cyclone,it will cause flood and mudslide problems in the region.But the indications are it has a good chance to develop in the next few days.Track is still uncertain.

[Alyono]

Close to a depression now. At a minimum this will be a severe rain threat

[mrbagyo]

Most numerical models are pushing this one towards the Ganges Delta.

[cycloneye]

Upgraded to Medium.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.4N 83.8E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.4N 83.9E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST OF
COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
140815Z ATMS NPP 88.2GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT ORGANIZED AND
ENHANCED FLARING CONVECTION ABOUT A WELL ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), EVIDENT ON MOST RECENT SCAT PASSES. THE
DISTURBANCE IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT
SUPPORTED BY A POINT SOURCE NEARLY OVERHEAD, LOW TO MODERATE (10-15
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[wxman57]

Looks like it has been a tropical depression for much of today, as indicated by a well-defined LLC in the latest ASCAT image and convection building over the center. May be close to tropical storm strength no. So much for a "medium" chance of development.

[1900hurricane]

Yep, certainly looks like a classifiable tropical cyclone to me.

[stormwise]

https://www.windfinder.com/weather-maps ... 20/81.4059



WW 16-06 Colour :- Amber



SEVERE WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SHOWERS

http://www.meteo.gov.lk/index.php?lang=en

VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS COMMENCING FROM 1100 HRS, 15thMay 2016).

(Issued by Early Warning Centre of the Department of Meteorology issued at 1100 hrs on 15th May 2016)

The disturbance in the Bay of Bengal to the South east of Sri Lanka has developed in to a low pressure area and now located over Batticaloa coast. It is likely to intensify further in to a depression and likely to continue affecting the weather over the country and surrounding sea areas. However it is expected to move away from Sri Lanka by Tomorrow towards India.

Showery and windy weather is expected to continue today and tomorrow over most parts of the island particularly Eastern, Northern and Southwestern parts of the country. Very heavy rain falls (more than 150mm) are also likely at some places.

Due to the active cloudiness associated with the above system, the possibility of sudden roughness of the sea areas associated with sudden increase of wind speed (up to 70-80 kmph) can be expected over the surrounding sea areas of the island. Intermittent showers/thundershowers will occur over surrounding sea areas of the country.

Naval and fishing communities are requested to be vigilant in this regard.



Last Updated: 15 May 2016

[Alyono]

Models seem to be indicating some shear as this approaches Bangladesh. If this comes to fruition, then we will likely avoid a catastrophic scenario

[terstorm1012]

hope so.

[cycloneye]

Bad news from Sri Lanka as massive floodings have caused 2 deaths.

According to the latest figures issued by the DMC over 7,000 people have been affected by the inclement weather and 422 people of 97 families have been evacuated. Two weather-related deaths have been reported.

Several roads in many parts of the country was cut off due to floods and the Sri Lanka Red Cross said its staff has been placed on alert to assist anyone who may be affected by the bad weather.

http://www.colombopage.com/archive_16A/ ... 0808CH.php

[Alyono]

0Z EC and 12Z GFS show about 30 kts of shear in the northern BOB

Looks like this will be on the north side of an upper ridge

[stormwise]

looks to be tightening up now.

[wxman57]

A 30kt "low pressure area" that may develop into a depression? What disqualifies it from already being at least a depression? It has a well-defined LLC and organized convection overhead.

[Darvince]

999.5mb in Trincomlee Sri Lanka which is outside the convection; we probably have a sub 990 system.

[TheAustinMan]

Might not be the most organized thing in the world, but that spiral banding in the microwave imagery, combined with a fairly decent appearance on infrared/visible as well as scatterometer data lead me to believe this has been a tropical cyclone for quite some time.

[euro6208]

EURO and GFS has been very persistent with this. GFS is back to developing this rapidly into a cyclone as it traverses the ocean into Myanmar.

[stormwise]

Was upgraded Depression BOB 01

[Alyono]

12Z MU is calling for big trouble in Bangladesh. The shear forecasts from yesterday may have been poor

[cycloneye]

Oh boy.HWRF has a monster moving torwards Bangladesh.