EPAC: INVEST 90E
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- cycloneye
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EPAC: INVEST 90E
EP, 90, 2016051418, , BEST, 0, 94N, 1141W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS001, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 001,
EP, 90, 2016051500, , BEST, 0, 95N, 1145W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS001, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 001,
EP, 90, 2016051506, , BEST, 0, 96N, 1149W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS001, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 001,
EP, 90, 2016051512, , BEST, 0, 97N, 1153W, 20, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 60, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS001, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 001,
EP, 90, 2016051518, , BEST, 0, 98N, 1157W, 20, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST
EP, 90, 2016051500, , BEST, 0, 95N, 1145W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS001, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 001,
EP, 90, 2016051506, , BEST, 0, 96N, 1149W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS001, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 001,
EP, 90, 2016051512, , BEST, 0, 97N, 1153W, 20, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 60, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS001, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 001,
EP, 90, 2016051518, , BEST, 0, 98N, 1157W, 20, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E
Code: Select all
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP902016 05/15/16 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 24 25 26 26 25 23 21 17 DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 24 25 26 26 25 23 21 17 DIS DIS
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 8 6 6 8 8 13 20 24 15 24 31 35 35
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 1 2 3 2 2 3 4 3 6 6
SHEAR DIR 288 273 264 266 254 239 267 268 252 225 240 265 275
SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.4 28.0 27.8 27.9 27.7 27.3 27.1 26.9
POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 155 154 151 147 143 142 143 140 135 131 129
200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.0 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 4 4 3
700-500 MB RH 75 75 74 71 68 64 59 59 58 57 54 57 54
MODEL VTX (KT) 2 3 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -20 -26 -37 -52 -66 -86 -94 -90 -86 -69 -48 -27 -21
200 MB DIV 162 171 143 108 83 61 2 16 25 26 37 14 9
700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 0 -1 2 2 0 0 2 2 0 0
LAND (KM) 1569 1582 1586 1593 1604 1665 1745 1862 1974 2089 2150 2167 2146
LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.0 10.3 10.6 10.9 11.2 11.4 11.4 11.5 11.6 11.9 12.3 12.7
LONG(DEG W) 115.7 116.3 117.0 117.7 118.4 119.8 121.2 122.9 124.7 126.4 127.5 128.1 128.2
STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 8 7 7 7 8 9 8 7 5 2 2
HEAT CONTENT 36 35 35 35 31 19 17 30 22 13 13 10 7
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 478 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 22.3
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 14. 22. 28. 31. 34. 34. 34.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. -1. -3. -4. -7. -8. -8.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -17. -19. -21. -22. -23. -23.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -3. -7. -8.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.8 115.7
** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902016 INVEST 05/15/16 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.90 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 34.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.45 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.61 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.66 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 133.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.99 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 56.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.82 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.59 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
---------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 9.1% 50.1% 49.5% 32.2% 23.4% 51.3% 41.2%
Bayesian: 2.0% 5.1% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.8% 1.0%
Consensus: 3.7% 18.4% 17.1% 10.9% 7.9% 17.4% 14.1%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902016 INVEST 05/15/16 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
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- cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E
Up to 20% but no development is expected.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN MAY 15 2016
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
A low pressure system located about 1000 miles south-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Any development of this
disturbance is expected to be slow to occur during the next couple
of days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10
mph. After that time, upper-level winds are forecast to become less
conducive for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
$$
Forecaster Stewart
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN MAY 15 2016
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
A low pressure system located about 1000 miles south-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Any development of this
disturbance is expected to be slow to occur during the next couple
of days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10
mph. After that time, upper-level winds are forecast to become less
conducive for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E
I'm really surprised they bumped this up to an invest, it has no model support for development.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E
It has a small chance of development over the next 36 hours, but after that, nada. It seems sort of like all the Gulf invests last year that were just blobs of thunderstorms
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E
If it wants to form it needs to do so now, but in May near the ITCZ, such is not likely. We ave this kind of invest every year although this sort of invest is happening a bit earlier than normal, which is a sign that the SE EPAC could be open for business pretty soon, as in late next month, but given the upcoming Nina, this seems somewhat unlikely.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E
I believe any vigorous area of convection associated with an LLC has a shot.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E
Kingarabian wrote:I believe any vigorous area of convection associated with an LLC has a shot.
EC Odds increase's to 40-50% upto 90hrs. another 10 knots to a TS is not unrealistic.
Last edited by tolakram on Mon May 16, 2016 6:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: removed image
Reason: removed image
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- Kingarabian
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- Hurricaneman
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E
I'll still say this might get to depression status but not beyond that looking at its future and little model support
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- Kingarabian
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E
Windsat has a couple of 50kt barbs and a lot of 35kt+ barbs.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E
IF this track does come to fruition it may bring the CFSV2 model storm in the GOM into play. Its good the GOM is sheared and not very warm.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E
stormwise wrote:Kingarabian wrote:I believe any vigorous area of convection associated with an LLC has a shot.
EC Odds increase's to 40-50% upto 90hrs. another 10 knots to a TS is not unrealistic.
That appears to be an image from Weatherbell. Please, as a reminder to everyone, do not post images from pay sites.
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M a r k
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E
Kingarabian wrote:Windsat has a couple of 50kt barbs and a lot of 35kt+ barbs.
WindSat isn't reliable for Tc's plain and simple.
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E
An area of low pressure located about 950 miles south-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula has changed
little in organization since yesterday. Some development of this
disturbance is still possible today while it moves westward to
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. After that time, upper-level
winds are forecast to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone
formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula has changed
little in organization since yesterday. Some development of this
disturbance is still possible today while it moves westward to
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. After that time, upper-level
winds are forecast to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone
formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
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- cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E
Bye.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON MAY 16 2016
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
A small area of low pressure located about 900 miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is moving
toward the west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph. Shower activity is very
limited and further development of this low is unlikely due to
unfavorable upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent
Forecaster Avila
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON MAY 16 2016
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
A small area of low pressure located about 900 miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is moving
toward the west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph. Shower activity is very
limited and further development of this low is unlikely due to
unfavorable upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent
Forecaster Avila
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- cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E
Invest has been deactivated.
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