Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[stormwise]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S3SKHuP0hW8
Interesting.

A bit overly dramatic, and incorrect in several areas. PDO is currently positive (warm), not negative, and current AMO is negative (cold), not positive. I'm seeing nothing to suggest ACE over 200 this season. However, I still say we need to watch the western Caribbean & Gulf for major hurricane activity this year.

Not seeing a cold AMO since the mid-1990s we have been in a warm phase ,PDO is positive retrograde atm yes but we are in the transition phase to nina. I think around August we will have a clearer picture with the PDO being matched or miss-matched.




AMO Calculated by NOAA/ESRL (CDC) (last update 15-APR-2016).

[wxman57]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S3SKHuP0hW8
Interesting.

A bit overly dramatic, and incorrect in several areas. PDO is currently positive (warm), not negative, and current AMO is negative (cold), not positive. I'm seeing nothing to suggest ACE over 200 this season. However, I still say we need to watch the western Caribbean & Gulf for major hurricane activity this year.

Not seeing a cold AMO since the mid-1990s we have been in a warm phase ,PDO is positive retrograde atm yes but we are in the transition phase to nina. I think around August we will have a clearer picture with the PDO being matched or miss-matched.



]http://i67.tinypic.com/28qqgt0.gif
AMO Calculated by NOAA/ESRL (CDC) (last update 15-APR-2016).

The AMO went cold in 2014 and is now the coldest it's been since 1950, using the Klotzbach/Gray method. Their method looks at temperatures farther north than the standard way of calculating, as they've found it's the far northern Atlantic that is a better indicator.

The graphics below only go out to mid 2015. I'll get the new data from Phil. I believe he tweeted that temps now are even cooler.

[cycloneye]

Revealing stat by Dr Phil Klotzbach about U.S landfalls.

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach ·

The United States has been impacted by over twice as many hurricanes in #LaNina compared with #ElNino.

[wxman57]

This is the area Klotzbach/Gray look at for AMO status - from 50N-60N and 10W-50W. As you can see, temps are much cooler than normal.

[stormwise]

Apologizes and i stand corrected , thankyou for your explanation 57.

[WPBWeather]

Revealing stat by Dr Phil Klotzbach about U.S landfalls.

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach ·

The United States has been impacted by over twice as many hurricanes in #LaNina compared with #ElNino.

Sort by of goes against his more conservative number guesses for this year?

[Yellow Evan]

Sort by of goes against his more conservative number guesses for this year?

Yes, but we have other factors (SST EPAC configuration, AMO) that offset the La Nina this year, hence the conservative numbers.

[wxman57]

Apologizes and i stand corrected , thankyou for your explanation 57.

No apology necessary. There are 2 ways of calculating AMO. One way looks at temps farther south (which are warm) and the other (Klotzbach/Gray) focuses on temps between 50-60N.

[NDG]

All I know is that the same area Dr Phil uses for their AMO index has warmed up in the past 45 days, perhaps the reason why the MDR has not cooled down that much yet as they predicted?

[SFLcane]

NDG so did 2013..

[tarheelprogrammer]

NDG so did 2013..

Here is the May 2013 SST Anomaly Map. Some similarities but not quite as warm all around the Atlantic.

[Darvince]

In 2013, the SSTs were not the problem. It was literally everything else that went wrong.

[NDG]

Lol, 2013 is like talking about 2005, the opposite of it.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Lol, 2013 is like talking about 2005, the opposite of it.

Agreed though some similarities to both this season. No where near either one in my opinion. I am no MET so not a forecast. Just posted image above of 2013 to show what SST anomalies were.

[Yellow Evan]

In 2013, the SSTs were not the problem. It was literally everything else that went wrong.

Yes it was. The warmest SST's anomalies were confided to the subtropics, allowing for sinking air over the tropics.

[WPBWeather]

All I know is that the same area Dr Phil uses for their AMO index has warmed up in the past 45 days, perhaps the reason why the MDR has not cooled down that much yet as they predicted?

As I understand it, the Gray PK area is one of TWO areas Pro Mets can use. It is not the definitive measurement area however.

[cycloneye]

And the parade begins.

[tarheelprogrammer]

And the parade begins.

What does the map show?

[WPBWeather]

And the parade begins.

http://i.imgur.com/cG6IcKS.gif

What does the map show?

Tropical waves, lower right>

[tarheelprogrammer]

Do they normally start rolling off this early in the year?