Sad news from baja as hurricane Marty makes landfall
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cycloneye
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Sad news from baja as hurricane Marty makes landfall
This morning Marty made landfall as a cat 2 cane with 100 mph maximun sustained winds but I just learned at fox news that 1 person died at cabo as he drowned but I hope that no more deaths happen in that area.
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Heard there was widespread damage in the Baja California Sur cities of La Paz and Cabo San Lucas. The is the first time hearing about a fatality though. Looks like Marty is weakening now as it's scraping up against the mountains of Baja and Mexico. NWS LA and San Diego have had a change of heart and are now adding a chance of rain for the Wed-Fri time frame for most of the area as the flow becomes quite stagnant once Marty reaches the Sea of Cortez. I still think most of the moisture will be in Arizona and points eastward, but enough easterly flow and an upper level low sitting off the coast will pull some moisture westward into CA. Will be a nice change from this mundane weather we've been having if we can get a few showers over the area.
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weatherlover427
For my area:
CAZ042-231030-
ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
230 PM PDT MON SEP 22 2003
.TONIGHT...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG SPREADING LOCALLY INLAND WITH VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE LATE. LOWS 58 TO 64.
.TUESDAY...SUNNY EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE...LINGERING AT THE BEACHES IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS 80 TO 96.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 62 TO 67.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS 78 TO 91.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 60 TO 65.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS 75 TO 86. CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 60S. HIGHS IN THE 80S.
.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER. LOWS 55 TO 65. HIGHS 72 TO 84.
For the LA area:
CAZ041-231030-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
230 PM PDT MON SEP 22 2003
.TONIGHT...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG NEAR THE
COAST EARLY SPREADING INLAND OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL LOCALLY BE REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS. LOWS AROUND 60.
.TUESDAY...AREAS OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG...OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY. VISIBILITIES WILL LOCALLY BE REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS. HIGHS FROM THE 70S AT THE BEACHES TO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 INLAND.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 60.
.WEDNESDAY...AREAS OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AT THE BEACHES TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S INLAND.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 60.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AT THE BEACHESTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S INLAND.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS NEAR 60. HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BEACHES TO UPPER 70S AND 80S INLAND.
.SATURDAY...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE MORNING...OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY. LOWS NEAR 60. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BEACHES TO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND.
.SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BEACHES TO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND.
CAZ042-231030-
ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
230 PM PDT MON SEP 22 2003
.TONIGHT...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG SPREADING LOCALLY INLAND WITH VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE LATE. LOWS 58 TO 64.
.TUESDAY...SUNNY EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE...LINGERING AT THE BEACHES IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS 80 TO 96.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 62 TO 67.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS 78 TO 91.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 60 TO 65.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS 75 TO 86. CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE 60S. HIGHS IN THE 80S.
.SUNDAY AND MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOLER. LOWS 55 TO 65. HIGHS 72 TO 84.
For the LA area:
CAZ041-231030-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
230 PM PDT MON SEP 22 2003
.TONIGHT...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG NEAR THE
COAST EARLY SPREADING INLAND OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL LOCALLY BE REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS. LOWS AROUND 60.
.TUESDAY...AREAS OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG...OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY. VISIBILITIES WILL LOCALLY BE REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS. HIGHS FROM THE 70S AT THE BEACHES TO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 INLAND.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 60.
.WEDNESDAY...AREAS OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AT THE BEACHES TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S INLAND.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 60.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AT THE BEACHESTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S INLAND.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS NEAR 60. HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BEACHES TO UPPER 70S AND 80S INLAND.
.SATURDAY...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE MORNING...OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY. LOWS NEAR 60. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BEACHES TO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND.
.SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BEACHES TO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND.
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Josephine96
Good explanation in the NWS San Diego forecast discussion tonight:
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MARTY DIES AND GOES INTO AZ. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH...EXACTLY WHERE...AND WILL THERE BE ANY TRIGGER MECHANISM TO LIFT IT AND PRODUCE RAIN. SINCE SAN DIEGO IS ADJACENT TO THE DATA POOR AREAS OF THE OCEAN AND MEXICO...MODELS CANNOT DEFINE FEATURES COMING FROM THOSE AREAS VERY WELL. HENCE...MODEL SOLUTIONS LATELY HAVE BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT... DIFFERING WILDLY FROM RUN TO RUN AND FROM MODEL TO MODEL. WE ARE DEALING WITH THE DEATH OF MARTY WHICH MAY BRING A DEEP COLUMN OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AN UPPER HIGH MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND THERE IS AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST THAT MAY APPROACH THE COAST. IF THESE TWO DEVELOP THE FLOW WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND WET. BUT IF THE LOW IS TOO FAR NORTH...SOUTHWEST FLOW WOULD RESULT AND IT WOULD STEER THE MOISTURE AWAY. TWO SOLUTIONS REPRESENT THE EXTREMES OF THE SPECTRUM OF POSSIBILITY. SOLUTION A: ALL THE MOISTURE STAYS IN AZ AND THE UPPER LOW IS TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO DO ANYTHING ABOUT IT...A DRY SOLUTION. SOLUTION B: MARTY BECOMES A SORT OF EASTERLY WAVE...BUT MORE SOUTHERLY...AND GETS PICKED UP BY THE UPPER LOW AND DRAGGED THROUGH SOCAL. THIS WOULD BRING SOME RAIN TO ALL AREAS...NOT JUST MTNS AND DESERTS. EARLIER CONSENSUS WITH FORECASTERS IN THE REGION IS TO PREFER SOLUTION B...BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY.
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I myself have my doubts from the way the upper level cloud pattern looks. Haven't looked at the ETA, but the GFS cross section only inidicates scattered mid and high clouds for both San Diego and Los Angeles area.
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MARTY DIES AND GOES INTO AZ. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH...EXACTLY WHERE...AND WILL THERE BE ANY TRIGGER MECHANISM TO LIFT IT AND PRODUCE RAIN. SINCE SAN DIEGO IS ADJACENT TO THE DATA POOR AREAS OF THE OCEAN AND MEXICO...MODELS CANNOT DEFINE FEATURES COMING FROM THOSE AREAS VERY WELL. HENCE...MODEL SOLUTIONS LATELY HAVE BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT... DIFFERING WILDLY FROM RUN TO RUN AND FROM MODEL TO MODEL. WE ARE DEALING WITH THE DEATH OF MARTY WHICH MAY BRING A DEEP COLUMN OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AN UPPER HIGH MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND THERE IS AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST THAT MAY APPROACH THE COAST. IF THESE TWO DEVELOP THE FLOW WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND WET. BUT IF THE LOW IS TOO FAR NORTH...SOUTHWEST FLOW WOULD RESULT AND IT WOULD STEER THE MOISTURE AWAY. TWO SOLUTIONS REPRESENT THE EXTREMES OF THE SPECTRUM OF POSSIBILITY. SOLUTION A: ALL THE MOISTURE STAYS IN AZ AND THE UPPER LOW IS TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO DO ANYTHING ABOUT IT...A DRY SOLUTION. SOLUTION B: MARTY BECOMES A SORT OF EASTERLY WAVE...BUT MORE SOUTHERLY...AND GETS PICKED UP BY THE UPPER LOW AND DRAGGED THROUGH SOCAL. THIS WOULD BRING SOME RAIN TO ALL AREAS...NOT JUST MTNS AND DESERTS. EARLIER CONSENSUS WITH FORECASTERS IN THE REGION IS TO PREFER SOLUTION B...BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY.
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I myself have my doubts from the way the upper level cloud pattern looks. Haven't looked at the ETA, but the GFS cross section only inidicates scattered mid and high clouds for both San Diego and Los Angeles area.
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