Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[Hurricaneman]

Cooler than normal waters in the MDR to about 60W above 15N which means if systems stay below 15N they could develop in the MDR but looks like the Caribbean and GOM may end up well above normal which is a positive for development in those areas so based on that expect a lot of sub tropical Atlantic development and west of 55 to be quite active and possibly one big MDR system but not much more in the MDR

PS: watch the east coast also as the area east of the bahamas look to be primed for some storms

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[wxman57]

Do they normally start rolling off this early in the year?

Yes, it's normal.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Do they normally start rolling off this early in the year?

Yes, it's normal.

Thanks I was thinking it was being pointed out because it wasn't. Stupid me lol.

[Hurricaneman]

Is it me or is the modeling predicting a weak or small Azores high {weak as in GFS small as in Euro}

if so what would a weaker Azores high mean for the hurricane season

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Huckster]

Is it me or is the modeling predicting a weak or small Azores high {weak as in GFS small as in Euro}

if so what would a weaker Azores high mean for the hurricane season

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

A weaker Azores High could result in weaker trade winds. A lack of screaming easterly low level winds is one of the ingredients necessary for tropical waves to close off a surface low. Usually, but not always, it is difficult for tropical waves to develop if they are racing westward at 30 kts or more. This is one reason that waves which have not developed into cyclones before reaching the eastern Caribbean often don't do so until much farther west, near or past Hispaniola (assuming they don't plow over it while trying to organize). That's why the Bahamas, western Caribbean, and Gulf tend to be better locations for TC formation.

[Ntxw]

Yeah, while unsure of cause or effect, the strength of the Azores/Bermuda high is reflective of overall higher or lower than normal pressures along with those trades.

[Janie2006]

I should think that a weaker Azores/Bermuda high (well, I suppose it'd be more toward the Azores if it were weaker this season) would also lead to some storms recurving earlier than they normally might, depending on location of development, of course.

[gatorcane]

The waters around the Bahamas and Florida have warmed dramatically just in the past couple of weeks and have gone to below normal to above normal:

[NDG]

To along with the post above, SSTs are much warmer so far across the MDR and Caribbean than this same time last year.

[SFLcane]

Warm MDR??? not sure what you guys are looking at? drastic cooling

[NDG]

Warm MDR??? not sure what you guys are looking at? drastic cooling

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... pics_1.png

Oh please, CDAS always seems to suffer from bipolar disorder from day to day, give it a few days it will show contrary the opposite.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Here guys let me add more confusion.

[SFLcane]

Warm MDR??? not sure what you guys are looking at? drastic cooling

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... pics_1.png

Oh please, CDAS always seems to suffer from bipolar disorder from day to day, give it a few days it will show contrary the opposite.

Persistence of subtropical high will favor further cooling of eastern atl sst's

[tarheelprogrammer]

Warm MDR??? not sure what you guys are looking at? drastic cooling

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... pics_1.png

Oh please, CDAS always seems to suffer from bipolar disorder from day to day, give it a few days it will show contrary the opposite.

Persistence of subtropical high will favor further cooling of eastern atl sst's

Quick question will one or two degrees below normal affect hurricane season drastically?

[SFLcane]

wxbell....

[SFLcane]

That cold water in North Atl still looks ugly for a busy season per phil k.

[SFLcane]

few days old...

[NDG]

Warm MDR??? not sure what you guys are looking at? drastic cooling

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... pics_1.png

Oh please, CDAS always seems to suffer from bipolar disorder from day to day, give it a few days it will show contrary the opposite.

Persistence of subtropical high will favor further cooling of eastern atl sst's

All I am saying is that current SSTs at MDR is warmer than this same time last year. Your CDAS image shows cooling over the past 7 days, but not that it is as cool as last year.

[NDG]

few days old...

http://i64.tinypic.com/919jlg.jpg

Here is a more current image, from the same site.
BTW, your image shows a bunch of years right by the temp anomaly index which tells me that it was just an average of analog years that somebody put up not that it was a current true SST anomolay for the Atlantic.

[tarheelprogrammer]

This has been an interesting argument over SSTs. The map I posted does show it is pretty much warm all across the Atlantic and even areas that are below normal it is not a huge amount in most spots.