Area of Disturbed Weather North of Eastern Cuba - (Invest 91L is up)

[TheAustinMan]

Question. Is there a specific point in which an outlook becomes an invest?

The National Hurricane Center's official blog, inside the eye, as a great writeup on what invests are, and how they relate to the agency's forecasting system. Very neat read:
Investing for Meteorologists

If you lurk around the dark meteorological corners of the Internet, or even if you just watch weather broadcasts during hurricane season, you’ve probably come across expressions like Invest AL94. With the accent on the first syllable (IN-vest rather than in-VEST), this is not an insider’s instruction to sell your AAPL stock at $100, but rather it’s a reference to a specific “investigative area” – a weather system for which a tropical cyclone forecast center is interested in collecting specialized data sets or running model guidance.

[psyclone]

Very low rain chances at this point for the weekend on the western side of Florida...somewhat higher on the east coast. the opposite of last year which featured lots of rain on Memorial day weekend for our zone. works for me. this mess could really wipe out the weekend up north.

[CrazyC83]

Shades of this time in 2012 when two storms formed quickly in the same area?

[GeneratorPower]

Very low rain chances at this point for the weekend on the western side of Florida...somewhat higher on the east coast. the opposite of last year which featured lots of rain on Memorial day weekend for our zone. works for me. this mess could really wipe out the weekend up north.

Not sure what you mean by very low rain chances. NWS Tampa says 40% chance each day and night of the weekend.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 0TOJ_T3anM

[Hammy]

12z Euro have rite idea no storm imo

Euro still seems to shows a (sub)TD or possibly weak (sub)TS by the beginning of the week as it moves onshore.

[RL3AO]

Question. Is there a specific point in which an outlook becomes an invest?

Its completely up to the forecaster at NHC.

[TheStormExpert]

I'm wondering if whatever becomes of this is small in size and that could be causing issues with the models.

[cycloneye]

Shades of this time in 2012 when two storms formed quickly in the same area?

Beryl 2012.

[tropicwatch]

That would not be good for Memorial Day weekend

[TheStormExpert]

Beryl(2012) is just some proof of the magic the warm waters of the Gulf Stream can do!

The last thing folks along a coastal location want to deal with this Memorial Day Weekend.

[SeGaBob]

Our local NWS is mentioning this system, but I feel this will find a way north. Interesting nonetheless




The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Detached from the front correct? Nice little spin in Bahamas now.

[RL3AO]

I'll be arriving in Miami on Saturday. Could be an interesting first week!

[tropicwatch]

It looks like it is starting to be so.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/avn-animated.gif

[northjaxpro]

Shades of this time in 2012 when two storms formed quickly in the same area?

Beryl 2012.

My avatar. Beryl definitely ruined my Memorial weekend in 2012 for sure. Almost became a hurricane before she came ashore at Jax Beach.

[northjaxpro]

The disturbed weather down accross the SE Bahamas area is looking more and more interesting as time progresses. If the trends continue with convection impulsing and sustaining, we may see an invest within 36 hours.

[stormwise]

Is there high enough sst's to induce barotropic convective instability ? will horizontal gradients be able to get steep enough in both sea level pressure and tangential wind to allow for a rapid intensification ?...
It's likely there may be a TS but a cane meh, even a slow moving weak TS can cause copious amounts of flooding with huge financial loss.




The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[sponger]

Welcome back all, its going to be a busy year! Lets hope we all get to enjoy our weekend. I am breaking my ten year rule of no holiday travel to see family in Fort Meyers. I should be safe but this could be a rainy mess for travel.

[northjaxpro]

I do not see this system getting any stronger than a 40 mph low end sub tropical /possibly transitioning to T.S. in the early stages.

However, you have to watch this potential system closely once the system pulls near or traverses the warmer Gulf Stream waters potentially down the road. Beryl in 2012 took advantage of the Gulf Stream and dang near became a hurricane.

[Hurricaneman]

This isn't going to do much the next day or 2 with the high shear but shear is expected to drop in the 3 to 5 day and after day 5 is possibly when we may get a tropical cyclone out of this

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products