Area of Disturbed Weather North of Eastern Cuba - (Invest 91L is up)

[Hammy]

GFS is up to its old games again--even when things develop, as soon as it gets NHC mention and some incipient weather system is starting to show up, the model seems to back off and ends up with feedback issues.

[GeneratorPower]

Welcome back all, its going to be a busy year! Lets hope we all get to enjoy our weekend. I am breaking my ten year rule of no holiday travel to see family in Fort Meyers. I should be safe but this could be a rainy mess for travel.

Tip: Spell it "Fort Myers".

[stormwise]

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?type=Bah ... verDim=100

[Hammy]

Euro shows a strong depression/low end TS/STS within the next 72 hours (and fairly organized at the surface at 96 hours), leaving the GFS the only one that doesn't do much on the 00z run.

edit: Euro is now following what the Canadian model has been showing for the last several days, so the GEM may have gotten a nice boost in accuracy with the winter update.

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
815 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of cloudiness and showers over the western Atlantic Ocean
northeast of the Bahamas is associated with the interaction of an
upper-level trough and a weakening front. While development is not
anticipated for the next couple of days, environmental conditions
are expected to become more conducive for tropical or subtropical
development on Friday. This area of disturbed weather is forecast to
move slowly west-northwestward or northwestward and gradually
approach the southeastern United States over the weekend. The next
Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued by 8 PM EDT tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

Forecaster Blake

[drezee]

Tracks typically cluster in most years...will this be a precursor to later East Coast problems

[ninel conde]

Not at all. So far the decade long east coast flood pattern is firmly in place. 10 year trof shows no sign of breaking.

[KatDaddy]

Let the fun and games begin with round 2 just before the offcial beginning of the 2016 hurricane season. We may see Bonnie during the upcoming Memorial weekend.

[tropicwatch]

Not looking too impressive this morning.

[AdamFirst]

Heading back up to Port Saint Lucie this weekend for my sister's baby shower. Hope that the weather cooperates for the folks heading over.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Area around 28 N and 68 W has quite a bit of spin to it.

[cycloneye]

‏@MJVentrice · 16m16 minutes ago

First post of our calibrated ECMWF EPS tropical cyclone risk product this yr. Up to 80% chance for a S.E. US impact

[cycloneye]

Invest 91L is up