ATL: BONNIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 91, 2016052418, , BEST, 0, 236N, 687W, 15, 1020, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS002, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 002,
AL, 91, 2016052500, , BEST, 0, 240N, 685W, 15, 1019, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS002, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 002,
AL, 91, 2016052506, , BEST, 0, 245N, 682W, 15, 1019, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS002, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 002,
AL, 91, 2016052512, , BEST, 0, 250N, 680W, 20, 1018, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1019, 105, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST

Thread about this area of interest that was at Talking Tropics forum.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=117927

[cycloneye]

Models only here.

[northjaxpro]

Well, that was quick to initiate 91L by NHC. I wasn't anticipating this to happen until. Thursday.

Oh well. Should be interesting next few days.

[HurricaneRyan]

Had a feeling this would be an invest when I saw Stephanie and Jim talking about it on TWC

[cycloneye]

First run for 91L

[wxman57]

Chances of a low forming are about 100%. The only question is whether the NHC will classify it as a TD/TS. Since they're issuing special outlooks and have an invest up, I'd say chances ar >50% we'll have at least TD Two or Bonnie by Saturday afternoon. The low will probably start spinning up in 24 hrs or so

[SFLcane]

There ya go 57...

[TheStormExpert]

Recent ASCAT Pass.

[tropicwatch]

Appears fairly organized. Now all it needs is some convection.

[TheStormExpert]

From 2 hours ago on Twitter.

Levi Cowan
@TropicalTidbits

There is now a surface low NE of the Bahamas, albeit convectionless. It's a start - conditions remain unfavorable.

[cycloneye]

Spin is evident but without convection at this time.

http://i.imgur.com/jlZgr3B.gifv

[AdamFirst]

Latest GFS (global run, not focused on 91L) shows a weak reflection to the northeast of the Central Bahamas in 48 hours, but does not develop anything beyond that.

[Steve]

I wonder if it's going to be curved but stretched out as the GFS has been suggesting for a while. That looked at best STD/STS. 5 day precip totals on 12z GFS are essentially nothing outside of the TIdewater and Chesapeake Bay and OBX. NAM simulated radar also takes sort of a western motion initially then drives whatever up into the coast. Not much there but NAM radar does hint at rotation. No call either way for me except this does not appear to be shaping up to be anything significant - maybe kick up some waves and rip currents and some wind/squalls for the beaches and islands?

This post is not official and should not be used as such. This is my opinion only.

[CrazyC83]

If convection pops up, how long does it need to last before it can be declared a TD?

[cycloneye]

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits · 5m5 minutes ago

12Z CMC clearly initialized 91L's low-level circ better than 12Z GFS. Doesn't necessarily mean CMC forecast is right

[Kohlecane]

can someone post a satellite loop

[tarheelprogrammer]

[Nimbus]

Surprised they didn't forecast this to get dragged east then northeast by that lingering shortwave?
In this scenario usually whatever is left after the shear lets up, drifts WSW then gets picked up by the next trough.
Steering is typically weak with these for a few days.

[Steve]

Surprised they didn't forecast this to get dragged east then northeast by that lingering shortwave?
In this scenario usually whatever is left after the shear lets up, drifts WSW then gets picked up by the next trough.
Steering is typically weak with these for a few days.

Model support is for ridging to be building in to the north, so if that was to happen, there really isn't a quick way out at the surface.

[psyclone]

first naked swirl of the new year. popcorn. Could be a holiday weekend bummer for someone and certainly a reminder that the tropical season is upon us.