ATL: BONNIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

UKMET is on board.

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 25.05.2016



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 29.7N 74.8W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 28.05.2016 29.7N 74.8W WEAK

00UTC 29.05.2016 30.9N 76.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 29.05.2016 31.6N 78.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 30.05.2016 31.7N 79.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 30.05.2016 32.5N 78.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 31.05.2016 33.9N 77.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 31.05.2016 35.1N 76.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

[AutoPenalti]

Glad to be back, time for a new season of naked swirls, little canes that could, and fishes.

Interesting to see that 91L has become sheared a bit, the area south of it looks a bit more organized.

[SouthDadeFish]

I think people need to keep in mind that this isn't your typical pathway to genesis, such as a low-level trough like an African easterly wave. Instead, 91L will initially intensify via baroclinic instability and forcing for ascent provided by the upper-tropospheric trough to its west. It will be messy early on, but if enough convection can initiate, that will help to erode the upper-level trough and consequently mitigate the harmful effects of vertical wind shear.

[cycloneye]

I think people need to keep in mind that this isn't your typical pathway to genesis, such as a low-level trough like an African easterly wave. Instead, 91L will initially intensify via baroclinic instability and forcing for ascent provided by the upper-tropospheric trough to its west. It will be messy early on, but if enough convection can initiate, that will help to erode the upper-level trough and consequently mitigate the harmful effects of vertical wind shear.

We remember Joaquin developing from an upper level low but of course this will not be a cat 4 type.

[tolakram]

live visible loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=27&lon=-68&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=black

[tarheelprogrammer]

live visible loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=27&lon=-68&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=black

Convection trying its best to fire over center now.

[Hammy]

Euro continues to show development within 48-72 hours, leaving the GFS the only one not to do so.

[tropicwatch]

Shear has come down considerably northwest of 91L.

[tarheelprogrammer]

With shear being low and the system stalling over the Gulf Stream. What is supposed to hold it back from strengthening?

[stormlover2013]

its May lol, that's the hold back.......

[tarheelprogrammer]

its May lol, that's the hold back.......

Well of course lol my biggest thing is the Gulf Stream is mighty warm already. If it stalls over waters as warm as below and no shear why would it not strengthen has to be something else in play.

[cycloneye]

Nice surface reflection but needs plenty of convection.

[stormlover2013]

maybe it will you never know, going to be a ragged storm and you know how those are, always tough to get those to take off and develop quick.

[tarheelprogrammer]

maybe it will you never know, going to be a ragged storm and you know how those are, always tough to get those to take off and develop quick.

Oh I could be wrong no doubt I am no MET and May is usually not favorable for TC strengthening but it has happened in the past as recently as 2012.

[Cuda]

first naked swirl of the new year. popcorn. Could be a holiday weekend bummer for someone and certainly a reminder that the tropical season is upon us.

I'm super excited to see this. I've been lurking these forums for years, trying to learn what I can here and there. Just based on last years el nino and the historic warm temperatures, I've been giddy with excitement for months now.

I wish I knew anywhere near as much as you guys about how to read these maps, forecasting etc. Anyone have any suggestions for starting points?

[stormlover2013]

to be honest its prob because it isn't a true tropical system.

[tarheelprogrammer]

to be honest its prob because it isn't a true tropical system.

Didn't Joaquin start out as such last season?

[GlennOBX]

Admins, please feel free to delete this if this isn't the board for this question.

Now that we have an invest, shouldn't it be showing up on the map at the top of the home page, instead of "No Active Storms"?

I could be wrong.

[TCmet]

I wish I knew anywhere near as much as you guys about how to read these maps, forecasting etc. Anyone have any suggestions for starting points?

Welcome to the club, Cuda! Here's a great resource about tropical meteorology. Ignore the equations, etc, and there are a lot of really well-done graphics and explanations: http://www.goes-r.gov/users/comet/tropical/textbook_2nd_edition/print_1.htm

[TheStormExpert]

maybe it will you never know, going to be a ragged storm and you know how those are, always tough to get those to take off and develop quick.

Oh I could be wrong no doubt I am no MET and May is usually not favorable for TC strengthening but it has happened in the past as recently as 2012.

It happened last season too with Ana trying to ramp up some as it approached the SC Coast.