ATL: BONNIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

to be honest its prob because it isn't a true tropical system.

Didn't Joaquin start out as such last season?

Yep, Joaquin formed from a ULL.

[floridasun78]

interesting stuff what miami weather office DISCUSSION say about 91 lAt this point, folks should continue to monitor the evolution of
this potential system and forecast trends. This system also serves
as a great reminder that the Atlantic Hurricane Season is nearly
here, officially kicking off on June 1st, and now is a great time
to make your ready kits and check on your preparations and plans
for the coming season. It`s better to prepare your family,
business, and community organizations with a plan before any
potential threats!

As the potential system pushes close to the South Atlantic coast
between Jacksonville and the Outer Banks of the Carolinas next
week, according to the latest guidance, our area could see a
moderation of moisture and a return to diurnal thunderstorms and
sea breeze circulations driving the area pattern. The hybrid
nature of the potential system continues to drive lower confidence
in the forecast through the extended period.

[tarheelprogrammer]

to be honest its prob because it isn't a true tropical system.

Didn't Joaquin start out as such last season?

Yep, Joaquin formed from a ULL.

Once Joaquin got organized and hit warmer water it did turn tropical and fed off the warm waters and lower shear.

[NDG]

91L's cyclogenesis is fairly normal for this time of the year, thanks to an upper level trough and a surface trough over relatively warm waters.
It will be interesting once it moves over the very warm gulf stream if it can gain tropical characteristics.

[NDG]

Didn't Joaquin start out as such last season?

Yep, Joaquin formed from a ULL.

Once Joaquin got organized and hit warmer water it did turn tropical and fed off the warm waters and lower shear.

Yep, the very warm waters near the Bahamas helped the ULL transform into a tropical cyclone, a not so seldom occurrence over the tropics.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Yep, Joaquin formed from a ULL.

Once Joaquin got organized and hit warmer water it did turn tropical and fed off the warm waters and lower shear.

Yep, the very warm waters near the Bahamas helped the ULL transform into a tropical cyclone, a not so seldom occurrence over the tropics.

Not saying this will get anywhere near as powerful as Joaquin.

[cycloneye]

Admins, please feel free to delete this if this isn't the board for this question.

Now that we have an invest, shouldn't it be showing up on the map at the top of the home page, instead of "No Active Storms"?

I could be wrong.

We are trying to fix it to have it working again.

[NDG]

Once Joaquin got organized and hit warmer water it did turn tropical and fed off the warm waters and lower shear.

Yep, the very warm waters near the Bahamas helped the ULL transform into a tropical cyclone, a not so seldom occurrence over the tropics.

Not saying this will get anywhere near as powerful as Joaquin.

Absolutely not, TS at best.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Yep, the very warm waters near the Bahamas helped the ULL transform into a tropical cyclone, a not so seldom occurrence over the tropics.

Not saying this will get anywhere near as powerful as Joaquin.

Absolutely not, TS at best.

I personally think low end hurricane not out of the question. Not likely though.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Ah, hello all, back for another season.

We've had quite a few years in a row now with storms before June 1. Wasn't there talk recently of extending the ATL Season to May 15?

[TheAustinMan]

HWRF is running for the first time on invest 91L.

[CaliforniaResident]

I'm calling for a landfalling cat 1 next week as the kick off to a very active and high impact Atlantic season.

Disclaimer: I'm just an amateur going on a hunch without any professional meteorological certification whatsoever.

[cycloneye]

Up to 30%-60%

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
740 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Cloudiness and showers over the western Atlantic Ocean a few hundred
miles northeast of the Bahamas are associated with a newly formed
area of low pressure. Environmental conditions are expected to
gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical or
subtropical cyclone could form on Friday or Saturday. The low is
forecast to move slowly west-northwestward or northwestward and
approach the southeastern United States over the weekend. The next
Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this disturbance will be issued
by 9 AM EDT on Thursday. For additional information on this system,
see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS Header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO Header FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[AdamFirst]

I'm calling for a landfalling cat 1 next week as the kick off to a very active and high impact Atlantic season.

Pump your brakes there...

also, make sure you post the disclaimer with any sort of perceived forecast.

[Hurricaneman]

I will say that this will probably at best be a mid range TS and most probably be a 45mph TS Sunday near landfall



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[CaliforniaResident]

I'm calling for a landfalling cat 1 next week as the kick off to a very active and high impact Atlantic season.

Pump your brakes there...

also, make sure you post the disclaimer with any sort of perceived forecast.

Just added one

[tarheelprogrammer]

I will go with 65 to 70 mph storm.

[cycloneye]

Those who may want to post a forecast for 91L you have to put our Storm2k disclaimer. Thanks for your cooperation.

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Hurricaneman]

Ah, hello all, back for another season.

We've had quite a few years in a row now with storms before June 1. Wasn't there talk recently of extending the ATL Season to May 15?

I only really heard Mark Sudduth say it and looking at numbers it does make sense to an extent

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Evil Jeremy]

Oh boy oh boy, here we go! I've recently relocated to Jacksonville from Fort Lauderdale (and previously Tampa), so I'm curious to see how the northern part of the state handles tropical situations. I'm also excited to see how the new GFS handles this scenario. Time to update the tropical bookmarks...