ATL: BONNIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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- tarheelprogrammer
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
Shear continues to decrease around 91L. Still disorganized but as shear comes down it should get better organized correct? Seems like shear was kicking its butt earlier.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
That HWRF is reasonable. Outflow pattern looks correct for being under an upper low. In addition, those cloud tops are not that cold surrounding the eye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
To tell you the truth 91L looks better than I thought it was going to look this afternoon, not that it looks that great but not as bad as I thought. I would had expected to be like it looks today but by at least tomorrow if not on Saturday as it nears warmer waters.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
Alyono wrote:That HWRF is reasonable. Outflow pattern looks correct for being under an upper low. In addition, those cloud tops are not that cold surrounding the eye
So a minimal hurricane is not out of the question?
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
TCFA issued:
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 26.2N 68.8W TO 27.4N
72.5W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 261200Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 26.6N 69.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 400 NM EAST OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS ARE
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE DEFINED WHILE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE. ENVIROMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY WHILE
THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
272000Z.//
BT
#0001
NNNN

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 26.2N 68.8W TO 27.4N
72.5W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 261200Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 26.6N 69.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 400 NM EAST OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS ARE
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE DEFINED WHILE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE. ENVIROMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT ON FRIDAY WHILE
THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
272000Z.//
BT
#0001
NNNN

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- tropicwatch
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
NDBC
Location: 27.517N 71.483W
Date: Thu, 26 May 2016 21:50:00 UTC
Winds: NE (50°) at 19.4 kt gusting to 25.3 kt
Significant Wave Height: 8.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Average Wave Period: 5.9 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ESE (108°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.96 in
Air Temperature: 76.3 F
Dew Point: 72.5 F
Water Temperature: 79.2 F
The pressure at this buoy has been steadily falling since 11:30pm ET last night from 30.11 to where it is now. The buoy is within the square the navy put on this map. Tomorrow I would think we should see a healthier system.
[/quote]
Location: 27.517N 71.483W
Date: Thu, 26 May 2016 21:50:00 UTC
Winds: NE (50°) at 19.4 kt gusting to 25.3 kt
Significant Wave Height: 8.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Average Wave Period: 5.9 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ESE (108°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.96 in
Air Temperature: 76.3 F
Dew Point: 72.5 F
Water Temperature: 79.2 F
The pressure at this buoy has been steadily falling since 11:30pm ET last night from 30.11 to where it is now. The buoy is within the square the navy put on this map. Tomorrow I would think we should see a healthier system.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
TheStormExpert wrote:Alyono wrote:That HWRF is reasonable. Outflow pattern looks correct for being under an upper low. In addition, those cloud tops are not that cold surrounding the eye
So a minimal hurricane is not out of the question?
Its not showing a hurricane. It is showing a 50 kt ts. Very reasonable
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
OuterBanker wrote:Come to the Outer Banks where the weather will be fine. Myrtle Beach not so much. Doesn't matter to me though. I"ll be vacationing in the mountains of Pa. The rest of the east coast will be here (one of the reasons I'm leaving).
If I didn't have to work this weekend, I'd be heading out, too. NWS MHX says we might get a little rain out of this thing early next week, whatever it is at that time.
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- tarheelprogrammer
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
Big blow up of convection around the center. Shear looks to be getting lighter.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
TCFA said a "significant tropical cyclone" may possible form. Could someone please explain exactly what that might entail. Does that mean a hurricane?
Thank you.
Thank you.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
Local mets seem to think we'll get some rain out of this. I guess we'll see.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
80%-80%
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
740 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Shower activity associated with the low pressure area located
between Bermuda and the Bahamas has become somewhat better organized
since yesterday, and the circulation of the low has become a little
better defined. Environmental conditions are expected to be
generally conducive for a tropical or subtropical cyclone to form on
Friday or Saturday while this system moves west-northwestward or
northwestward toward the southeastern United States coast. All
interests along the southeast coast from Georgia through North
Carolina should monitor the progress of this low. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
low on Friday afternoon. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook
on this disturbance will be issued by 8 AM EDT Friday morning. For
additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS Header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO Header FZNT01 KWBC.
$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
740 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Shower activity associated with the low pressure area located
between Bermuda and the Bahamas has become somewhat better organized
since yesterday, and the circulation of the low has become a little
better defined. Environmental conditions are expected to be
generally conducive for a tropical or subtropical cyclone to form on
Friday or Saturday while this system moves west-northwestward or
northwestward toward the southeastern United States coast. All
interests along the southeast coast from Georgia through North
Carolina should monitor the progress of this low. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
low on Friday afternoon. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook
on this disturbance will be issued by 8 AM EDT Friday morning. For
additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS Header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO Header FZNT01 KWBC.
$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
sunnyday wrote:TCFA said a "significant tropical cyclone" may possible form. Could someone please explain exactly what that might entail. Does that mean a hurricane?
Thank you.
It's the standard language they use. It just means a tropical cyclone.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion-80%-80%
Ull looks to be 100+ miles SW of the surface circulation.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
Levi Cowen has a video about 91L.As always he explains all the factors in a simple way.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... heast-u-s/
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... heast-u-s/
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
18z HWRF still with a strong 55kt TS into South Carolina in 63hrs.






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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
Up to 30kts at 00z Best Track:
AL, 91, 2016052700, , BEST, 0, 274N, 709W, 30, 1013, LO
Location: 27.4°N 70.9°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: 40 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1013 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1017 mb
Radius of Circulation: 140 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 100 NM
AL, 91, 2016052700, , BEST, 0, 274N, 709W, 30, 1013, LO
Location: 27.4°N 70.9°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: 40 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1013 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1017 mb
Radius of Circulation: 140 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 100 NM
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- EyewallKnight
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
It will be interesting to see what happens when it escapes that shear. Even once it does, conditions aren't exactly the greatest for significant development. At least the action is in the Atlantic finally. I was growing weary of following storms on the other side of the globe.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
Wont be surprised to see this system further south than being depicted in some models the ridge its riding bends south over the Florida peninsula.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
stormwise wrote:Wont be surprised to see this system further south than being depicted in some models the ridge its riding bends south over the Florida peninsula.
Was thinking the same thing actually!
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Okay guys, just because I want to BE a meteorologist, want to go to school for meteorology, DOES NOT MAKE ME A METEOROLOGIST. Anything I say about tropical weather is either me learning something new, or is just an opinion and nothing more than that. I can almost guarantee you that I will be wrong about pretty much everything.
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