ATL: BONNIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Recon has not found a closed circulation yet, as no west winds were found. They did find a N-S wind shift associated with the low-level trough. However, recon has not yet extensively sampled the southern side of the circulation so it is possible some westerly winds exist. Additionally, the satellite appearance is beginning to improve, with a curved band of convection wrapping around the NW side of the system. If westerly winds are found and the circulation is no longer elongated, I think classifying this system as a tropical depression could be justified at this time.

I put almost closed circulation at recon thread because of lack of west winds but they are going down there..

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 271819
AF307 01AAA INVEST HDOB 24 20160527
181030 2804N 07339W 9771 00309 //// +220 //// 176023 023 024 000 01
181100 2802N 07339W 9768 00311 //// +218 //// 179022 023 023 000 01
181130 2801N 07340W 9765 00314 //// +216 //// 178021 021 023 000 01
181200 2800N 07340W 9774 00307 //// +218 //// 178021 022 021 000 01
181230 2758N 07340W 9770 00313 //// +216 //// 179020 022 021 000 01
181300 2757N 07340W 9771 00311 //// +216 //// 183019 020 021 000 01
181330 2755N 07340W 9769 00311 //// +215 //// 184019 019 020 000 05
181400 2754N 07340W 9769 00311 //// +216 //// 184019 019 020 000 01
181430 2753N 07340W 9770 00310 //// +215 //// 185018 018 019 000 05
181500 2751N 07340W 9769 00313 //// +215 //// 184018 018 020 000 01
181530 2750N 07340W 9770 00313 //// +215 //// 185016 017 019 000 01
181600 2748N 07341W 9769 00315 //// +215 //// 187016 017 020 000 05
181630 2747N 07341W 9774 00309 //// +215 //// 188016 017 022 000 01
181700 2746N 07341W 9774 00310 //// +218 //// 197015 016 018 000 01
181730 2744N 07342W 9766 00316 //// +215 //// 196014 015 016 000 01
181800 2743N 07342W 9772 00311 //// +215 //// 196015 015 018 000 01
181830 2741N 07342W 9769 00314 //// +215 //// 195015 016 019 000 01
181900 2740N 07343W 9769 00315 //// +215 //// 197015 017 018 000 01
181930 2738N 07343W 9772 00311 //// +215 //// 193016 017 017 000 01
182000 2737N 07343W 9769 00316 //// +215 //// 193015 015 018 000 05
$$

[cycloneye]

[SouthDadeFish]

It's close y'all. SSW winds just found on the SE side of the circulation. Recon still needs to sample the area just to the south of the circulation.

[Aric Dunn]

Hello crazy people. fun early start to the season.

[tropicwatch]

West winds found.

[cycloneye]

West Winds

URNT15 KNHC 271829
AF307 01AAA INVEST HDOB 25 20160527
182030 2736N 07344W 9765 00317 //// +215 //// 187013 014 013 000 05
182100 2736N 07346W 9772 00314 //// +215 //// 191012 013 015 000 01
182130 2736N 07348W 9769 00316 //// +217 //// 195012 013 015 000 05
182200 2736N 07349W 9770 00315 //// +214 //// 194012 012 019 000 05
182230 2736N 07351W 9769 00315 //// +210 //// 200011 011 021 002 01
182300 2736N 07353W 9772 00313 //// +215 //// 199011 011 017 001 05
182330 2736N 07354W 9772 00313 //// +213 //// 201012 013 022 000 01
182400 2736N 07356W 9771 00314 //// +219 //// 212012 013 014 000 05
182430 2735N 07357W 9770 00315 //// +218 //// 215011 012 018 000 05
182500 2734N 07359W 9769 00315 //// +216 //// 218011 012 018 000 01
182530 2733N 07400W 9772 00313 //// +216 //// 223013 013 020 001 01
182600 2732N 07401W 9776 00309 //// +215 //// 224012 014 021 000 05
182630 2732N 07403W 9770 00314 //// +215 //// 222011 012 018 000 01
182700 2732N 07405W 9770 00313 //// +212 //// 234012 013 019 000 01
182730 2732N 07406W 9768 00315 //// +214 //// 236012 013 017 000 01
182800 2732N 07408W 9770 00314 //// +215 //// 241012 012 018 000 05
182830 2732N 07410W 9772 00313 //// +215 //// 253012 012 018 000 01
182900 2732N 07411W 9769 00315 //// +213 //// 261011 012 018 000 01
182930 2732N 07413W 9773 00310 //// +215 //// 265012 013 018 000 01
183000 2732N 07415W 9773 00311 //// +214 //// 269012 013 018 000 01


$$

[cycloneye]

West Winds!!!

Check the recon thread

[TheStormExpert]

Definitely a compact little system for sure!

Could this rival Marco(2008) for smallest TC?

[SouthDadeFish]

Looks like we have TD 2. Not official yet, but I don't see why NHC won't pull the trigger. Each new visible frame looks better and better.

[bg1]

Hello crazy people. fun early start to the season.

But the season already started in January.

[tolakram]

12Z Euro showing this grazing the SC coast or coming close but no landfall. I wonder if this will continue to trend right?

[TheStormExpert]

12Z Euro showing this grazing the SC coast or coming close but no landfall. I wonder if this will continue to trend right?

That's been the case with the Euro for a few runs now.

[cycloneye]

[bg1]

12Z Euro showing this grazing the SC coast or coming close but no landfall. I wonder if this will continue to trend right?

How do the rest of the latest runs look, if you or someone else knows?

[Aric Dunn]

Hello crazy people. fun early start to the season.

But the season already started in January.

well yeah..

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 271839
AF307 01AAA INVEST HDOB 26 20160527
183030 2732N 07416W 9768 00315 //// +214 //// 271010 011 018 000 01
183100 2732N 07418W 9768 00314 //// +214 //// 271013 013 015 000 05
183130 2732N 07419W 9773 00310 //// +214 //// 270012 012 017 000 01
183200 2732N 07421W 9773 00309 //// +218 //// 287012 012 017 000 01
183230 2731N 07423W 9773 00309 //// +214 //// 305010 011 015 000 01
183300 2731N 07424W 9770 00311 //// +205 //// 308011 012 017 001 01
183330 2731N 07426W 9770 00313 //// +212 //// 318012 013 015 000 05
183400 2730N 07428W 9767 00316 //// +214 //// 312011 011 015 000 01
183430 2729N 07429W 9770 00314 //// +206 //// 321011 012 020 000 01
183500 2728N 07430W 9772 00311 //// +207 //// 341008 010 021 000 05
183530 2727N 07431W 9764 00316 //// +203 //// 325007 008 /// /// 05
183600 2726N 07430W 9773 00310 //// +198 //// 311007 008 /// /// 05
183630 2726N 07428W 9771 00315 //// +208 //// 317006 007 012 001 01
183700 2728N 07427W 9772 00310 //// +209 //// 316007 007 018 001 01
183730 2729N 07426W 9771 00313 //// +214 //// 294007 008 013 000 01
183800 2730N 07425W 9772 00310 //// +215 //// 289009 010 013 000 01
183830 2731N 07424W 9768 00313 //// +210 //// 282010 011 014 001 01
183900 2732N 07422W 9773 00309 //// +211 //// 285010 011 016 000 01
183930 2733N 07421W 9769 00311 //// +213 //// 276011 011 015 000 01
184000 2734N 07420W 9771 00309 //// +215 //// 271012 013 015 000 01
$$

[cycloneye]

[TheStormExpert]

12Z Euro showing this grazing the SC coast or coming close but no landfall. I wonder if this will continue to trend right?

How do the rest of the latest runs look, if you or someone else knows?

Most models have backed off on intensity with a minimal TS at best now.

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like we have TD 2. Not official yet, but I don't see why NHC won't pull the trigger. Each new visible frame looks better and better.

What could keep them from designating it TD #2 is the lackluster winds that have been found.