ATL: BONNIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

The west winds are a little dislocated away from the more defined wind shift. could be a old boundary from earlier convection down there. wont take much more convection over the "wind shift" to close off a well defined llc.

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 271849
AF307 01AAA INVEST HDOB 27 20160527
184030 2736N 07418W 9769 00309 //// +210 //// 250013 013 018 000 01
184100 2737N 07417W 9773 00304 //// +213 //// 247013 013 018 000 01
184130 2738N 07416W 9766 00308 //// +215 //// 246015 015 017 000 01
184200 2739N 07415W 9772 00302 //// +214 //// 233014 016 017 000 01
184230 2740N 07413W 9769 00303 //// +216 //// 224017 018 017 000 01
184300 2742N 07412W 9772 00299 //// +215 //// 221016 018 016 000 01
184330 2743N 07412W 9770 00302 //// +214 //// 208016 016 017 000 01
184400 2745N 07411W 9766 00305 //// +215 //// 204018 018 018 000 01
184430 2747N 07410W 9774 00297 //// +215 //// 196017 018 014 000 01
184500 2748N 07410W 9768 00303 //// +215 //// 191017 018 013 000 01
184530 2750N 07409W 9773 00298 //// +218 //// 187017 017 013 000 01
184600 2751N 07409W 9774 00298 //// +217 //// 191015 017 012 000 01
184630 2753N 07408W 9773 00298 //// +217 //// 197014 014 012 000 01
184700 2755N 07408W 9769 00300 //// +217 //// 190014 015 013 000 01
184730 2756N 07408W 9772 00297 //// +218 //// 190015 016 012 000 01
184800 2758N 07407W 9769 00303 //// +218 //// 190016 017 012 000 01
184830 2800N 07407W 9769 00307 //// +218 //// 189016 017 012 000 01
184900 2802N 07407W 9772 00304 //// +213 //// 184017 017 013 000 01
184930 2803N 07407W 9772 00304 //// +215 //// 185018 019 015 000 05
185000 2805N 07406W 9773 00304 //// +216 //// 182019 020 015 000 05
$$

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity has become more concentrated with
the area of low pressure located about 450 miles southeast of
Charleston, South Carolina. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is currently investigating the low to determine if
it has acquired a well-defined surface circulation. Environmental
conditions are favorable for this system to become a tropical
cyclone later today or on Saturday while it moves west-northwestward
toward the southeastern United States coast. Interests from Georgia
through North Carolina should monitor the progress of this low.

1. If advisories are not initiated this afternoon, the next Special
Tropical Weather Outlook on this disturbance will be issued by
8 PM EDT this evening. For additional information on this system,
please see High Seas Forecasts as well as products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS Header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO Header FZNT01 KWBC.

Forecaster Stewart

[Hammy]

Looks like it's not closed and that the west wind was outflow from collapsing convection--you can see arc clouds racing towards the southeast.

[SouthDadeFish]

Looks like we have TD 2. Not official yet, but I don't see why NHC won't pull the trigger. Each new visible frame looks better and better.

What could keep them from designating it TD #2 is the lackluster winds that have been found.

This is a common misconception. There is no minimum wind requirement for a TD. Refer to the NHC glossary:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#t

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 271909
AF307 01AAA INVEST HDOB 29 20160527
190030 2810N 07442W 9769 00308 //// +215 //// 016016 016 015 000 01
190100 2810N 07444W 9771 00307 //// +215 //// 015016 016 013 001 01
190130 2810N 07445W 9773 00307 //// +215 //// 019017 017 014 000 01
190200 2810N 07447W 9772 00308 //// +215 //// 021016 017 014 000 01
190230 2810N 07449W 9769 00310 //// +214 //// 021016 016 014 000 01
190300 2810N 07451W 9769 00310 //// +214 //// 026016 017 014 000 01
190330 2810N 07453W 9772 00309 //// +213 //// 031016 017 015 001 01
190400 2810N 07455W 9769 00311 //// +214 //// 031018 018 018 000 01
190430 2810N 07456W 9773 00308 //// +212 //// 025017 018 019 001 01
190500 2810N 07458W 9771 00309 //// +208 //// 024019 020 019 001 01
190530 2810N 07500W 9770 00311 //// +204 //// 009018 019 019 001 01
190600 2810N 07502W 9772 00311 //// +202 //// 002020 021 022 001 01
190630 2810N 07504W 9768 00315 //// +206 //// 005021 021 023 002 01
190700 2810N 07505W 9772 00314 //// +210 //// 004021 021 023 001 01
190730 2810N 07507W 9771 00315 //// +208 //// 003021 021 019 001 05
190800 2809N 07508W 9764 00321 //// +201 //// 001021 022 /// /// 05
190830 2808N 07509W 9774 00314 //// +205 //// 358021 021 021 003 01
190900 2806N 07509W 9771 00317 //// +204 //// 000019 020 022 003 01
190930 2804N 07509W 9768 00319 //// +202 //// 004018 019 025 002 01
191000 2803N 07509W 9771 00315 //// +205 //// 001018 018 025 001 01
$$

[cycloneye]

Circulation at second pass a little WSW of first one.

[cycloneye]

Circulation at second pass a little WSW of first pass.

[ozonepete]

Looks like we have TD 2. Not official yet, but I don't see why NHC won't pull the trigger. Each new visible frame looks better and better.

What could keep them from designating it TD #2 is the lackluster winds that have been found.

This is a common misconception. There is no minimum wind requirement for a TD. Refer to the NHC glossary:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#t

Really glad you reminded everyone of that.

Hello SouthDade. Hey there everyone! Here we go.

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KNHC 271919
AF307 01AAA INVEST HDOB 30 20160527
191030 2801N 07509W 9772 00316 //// +205 //// 359017 018 022 000 01
191100 2759N 07509W 9774 00315 //// +206 //// 359016 016 021 000 05
191130 2758N 07508W 9765 00320 //// +208 //// 001014 015 /// /// 05
191200 2759N 07506W 9772 00315 //// +205 //// 357013 014 023 003 01
191230 2759N 07504W 9773 00313 //// +207 //// 359012 014 026 001 01
191300 2800N 07503W 9774 00310 //// +207 //// 357012 013 026 003 01
191330 2801N 07501W 9771 00314 //// +203 //// 353011 011 023 005 05
191400 2801N 07500W 9766 00317 //// +207 //// 346011 012 024 004 01
191430 2801N 07458W 9773 00310 //// +201 //// 346012 013 023 001 01
191500 2801N 07456W 9767 00316 //// +199 //// 346012 014 022 001 01
191530 2801N 07454W 9774 00308 //// +207 //// 016012 013 018 000 01
191600 2801N 07453W 9765 00316 //// +205 //// 007010 012 019 001 05
191630 2802N 07451W 9772 00310 //// +209 //// 006011 012 017 000 01
191700 2802N 07449W 9769 00311 //// +210 //// 004010 011 015 002 01
191730 2802N 07447W 9771 00310 //// +212 //// 006008 008 014 000 05
191800 2801N 07446W 9765 00314 //// +210 //// 330006 007 016 000 01
191830 2801N 07444W 9771 00311 //// +209 //// 331006 006 015 000 05
191900 2802N 07442W 9766 00315 //// +214 //// 347005 006 014 000 01
191930 2802N 07440W 9772 00308 //// +213 //// 341005 005 013 000 01
192000 2803N 07439W 9770 00309 //// +214 //// 328005 006 012 000 01

[capepoint]

Not sure about this being considered a Well Defined circulation...... from the obs so far looks a little lopsided to say the least.

[cycloneye]

[BobHarlem]

Looking at the obs so far I doubt they will upgrade to TD.

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 271929
AF307 01AAA INVEST HDOB 31 20160527
192030 2803N 07437W 9769 00309 //// +213 //// 324005 005 012 000 05
192100 2804N 07435W 9770 00309 //// +211 //// 322006 006 012 000 01
192130 2804N 07434W 9769 00310 //// +210 //// 328006 007 014 000 01
192200 2805N 07432W 9769 00309 //// +210 //// 319006 007 017 001 01
192230 2806N 07431W 9771 00308 //// +212 //// 301004 006 016 000 01
192300 2807N 07429W 9772 00307 //// +215 //// 254004 004 010 001 01
192330 2808N 07429W 9771 00307 //// +215 //// 233005 005 012 000 01
192400 2810N 07428W 9772 00305 //// +215 //// 226004 005 014 000 01
192430 2811N 07427W 9775 00302 //// +218 //// 214004 004 014 000 05
192500 2812N 07427W 9770 00307 //// +220 //// 263002 004 013 002 01
192530 2813N 07429W 9773 00302 //// +218 //// 312003 003 017 000 01
192600 2814N 07430W 9769 00305 //// +216 //// 343002 003 018 001 05
192630 2815N 07431W 9762 00311 //// +215 //// 264002 002 /// /// 05
192700 2816N 07430W 9774 00302 //// +214 //// 211003 004 019 003 01
192730 2817N 07428W 9768 00305 //// +219 //// 217006 007 020 000 01
192800 2817N 07426W 9770 00303 //// +216 //// 222007 007 020 002 01
192830 2817N 07424W 9772 00302 //// +220 //// 210006 008 017 002 01
192900 2818N 07423W 9770 00303 //// +219 //// 192013 016 015 001 01
192930 2818N 07421W 9772 00304 //// +216 //// 186016 016 018 001 01
193000 2819N 07419W 9772 00304 //// +220 //// 188018 018 020 000 01
$$

[SouthDadeFish]

Yeah the circulation may still be a little elongated to the SW and a little broad. Didn't see that information when I made my earlier comments. That's why you always need to wait to see all the data! It's still pretty close though.

[cycloneye]

Winds up a little bit.

000
URNT15 KNHC 271939
AF307 01AAA INVEST HDOB 32 20160527
193030 2820N 07418W 9772 00304 //// +224 //// 181017 018 013 002 01
193100 2821N 07416W 9769 00309 //// +222 //// 169019 019 014 000 05
193130 2822N 07415W 9771 00309 //// +219 //// 164020 021 013 000 01
193200 2823N 07414W 9774 00307 //// +220 //// 159021 021 012 000 01
193230 2825N 07413W 9769 00313 //// +218 //// 158020 020 012 000 01
193300 2826N 07411W 9771 00310 //// +215 //// 155020 021 011 000 01
193330 2827N 07410W 9769 00314 //// +215 //// 154021 022 013 000 01
193400 2827N 07410W 9769 00314 //// +215 //// 154023 024 015 000 01
193430 2829N 07408W 9761 00322 //// +214 //// 154026 027 016 000 01
193500 2831N 07406W 9773 00313 //// +215 //// 156027 027 018 000 01
193530 2832N 07405W 9769 00318 //// +215 //// 154027 028 018 000 01
193600 2833N 07403W 9769 00319 //// +216 //// 152027 028 018 001 01
193630 2834N 07402W 9772 00318 //// +215 //// 150027 028 021 000 01
193700 2836N 07401W 9769 00322 //// +215 //// 149028 029 020 000 01
193730 2837N 07359W 9772 00320 //// +215 //// 148028 028 020 000 01
193800 2838N 07358W 9771 00321 //// +216 //// 149027 028 020 000 01
193830 2839N 07356W 9772 00321 //// +216 //// 150027 028 020 000 01
193900 2841N 07355W 9772 00321 //// +215 //// 146029 029 019 000 01
193930 2842N 07354W 9771 00324 //// +218 //// 145030 030 021 000 01
194000 2843N 07352W 9769 00325 //// +219 //// 145030 031 021 000 01

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

Finnaly some winds in the low 30's.

[SeGaBob]

I'm guessing they won't upgrade at 5pm but maybe 11pm.

Edit: Upgrade at 5pm


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