ATL: BONNIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

[Chris_in_Tampa]

I might post another image later:

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KNHC 281235
AF307 0202A CYCLONE HDOB 26 20160528
122530 3001N 07806W 9250 00802 0143 +196 +183 071002 003 007 000 03
122600 3000N 07807W 9248 00805 0143 +196 +186 021004 004 008 000 00
122630 2958N 07808W 9250 00803 0144 +195 +188 001007 008 009 000 00
122700 2957N 07809W 9248 00805 0144 +191 +189 356008 009 009 000 01
122730 2955N 07809W 9250 00803 //// +190 //// 354010 011 011 000 01
122800 2954N 07810W 9248 00806 //// +190 //// 350011 012 013 000 05
122830 2952N 07811W 9244 00811 //// +190 //// 354012 012 013 000 01
122900 2951N 07813W 9250 00806 0146 +198 +173 348014 015 013 000 00
122930 2950N 07814W 9249 00808 0147 +196 +177 344015 016 012 000 00
123000 2949N 07815W 9248 00810 0148 +195 +176 339016 017 012 001 00
123030 2948N 07817W 9249 00808 0149 +195 +177 338018 018 011 000 00
123100 2947N 07818W 9250 00807 0151 +193 +182 337017 017 011 000 00
123130 2946N 07820W 9249 00809 0152 +193 +181 339017 017 011 000 00
123200 2945N 07821W 9249 00811 0153 +192 +179 339018 018 009 000 00
123230 2943N 07822W 9248 00813 0154 +190 +182 340018 019 009 000 00
123300 2942N 07824W 9250 00810 0156 +189 +177 338019 020 010 000 00
123330 2941N 07825W 9248 00813 //// +185 //// 340022 025 015 001 01
123400 2940N 07827W 9249 00814 //// +185 //// 341023 026 015 000 01
123430 2939N 07828W 9249 00816 //// +185 //// 338022 023 013 000 01
123500 2938N 07829W 9249 00816 0160 +188 +185 332022 023 012 000 01

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 281245
AF307 0202A CYCLONE HDOB 27 20160528
123530 2937N 07831W 9248 00818 0162 +186 +184 334022 023 011 000 01
123600 2936N 07832W 9248 00819 //// +186 //// 334020 021 011 000 05
123630 2935N 07834W 9248 00821 0163 +188 +186 333020 020 010 000 00
123700 2933N 07835W 9248 00820 //// +185 //// 332021 021 012 000 01
123730 2932N 07836W 9250 00818 //// +182 //// 338020 021 013 000 01
123800 2931N 07838W 9250 00820 //// +183 //// 337018 019 012 000 01
123830 2930N 07839W 9247 00824 //// +183 //// 338019 019 012 000 05
123900 2929N 07840W 9250 00821 0167 +185 +183 338020 021 011 000 00
123930 2928N 07842W 9245 00825 //// +182 //// 339019 020 009 001 01
124000 2927N 07843W 9248 00823 //// +185 //// 340019 019 012 000 01
124030 2926N 07844W 9249 00823 0169 +185 +184 341019 020 012 000 01
124100 2925N 07846W 9249 00824 0171 +185 +184 337019 019 011 000 01
124130 2923N 07847W 9248 00826 0171 +185 +183 336019 020 011 000 00
124200 2922N 07849W 9248 00826 0173 +184 +179 337019 019 009 001 00
124230 2921N 07850W 9250 00823 //// +182 //// 334019 019 010 000 01
124300 2920N 07851W 9248 00828 0173 +184 +178 331020 021 012 000 00
124330 2919N 07853W 9251 00826 0174 +182 +176 329022 023 014 000 01
124400 2918N 07854W 9247 00829 //// +183 //// 326020 022 015 000 05
124430 2916N 07854W 9244 00833 0173 +186 +178 322018 019 /// /// 03
124500 2916N 07853W 9249 00827 0173 +186 +179 315017 017 014 000 00
$$

[NotoSans]

40kt at 925hPa only supports around 30kt surface winds. Although SFMR reported several 40kt+ winds, the high rain rates make these questionable. Doesn't really justify an upgrade to TS IMO. The rise in central pressure is a bit shocking as well.

[Alyono]

with the rise in pressure, it is quite possible this will never become a TS

[cycloneye]

URNT12 KNHC 281255
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022016
A. 28/12:25:40Z
B. 30 deg 01 min N
078 deg 06 min W
C. 925 mb 803 m
D. 30 kt
E. 042 deg 58 nm
F. 119 deg 39 kt
G. 042 deg 60 nm
H. EXTRAP 1014 mb
I. 19 C / 762 m
J. 20 C / 762 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 9
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF307 0202A CYCLONE OB 09
MAX FL WIND 39 KT 042 / 60 NM 12:06:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB

[cycloneye]

Pressure up 1 mb at second pass.

URNT12 KNHC 281255
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022016
A. 28/12:25:40Z
B. 30 deg 01 min N
078 deg 06 min W
C. 925 mb 803 m
D. 30 kt
E. 042 deg 58 nm
F. 119 deg 39 kt
G. 042 deg 60 nm
H. EXTRAP 1014 mb
I. 19 C / 762 m
J. 20 C / 762 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 9
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF307 0202A CYCLONE OB 09
MAX FL WIND 39 KT 042 / 60 NM 12:06:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 281255
AF307 0202A CYCLONE HDOB 28 20160528
124530 2916N 07851W 9249 00825 0173 +185 +181 310017 017 015 000 00
124600 2915N 07849W 9249 00827 0173 +185 +181 306017 018 015 000 00
124630 2915N 07847W 9248 00826 0172 +184 +183 308018 019 017 000 01
124700 2915N 07845W 9248 00828 //// +183 //// 305020 021 016 000 01
124730 2914N 07843W 9250 00824 //// +181 //// 303020 022 014 000 01
124800 2914N 07841W 9241 00833 //// +181 //// 306017 019 014 000 01
124830 2913N 07839W 9250 00828 //// +182 //// 306018 018 013 000 01
124900 2913N 07837W 9246 00831 //// +181 //// 298018 019 012 000 01
124930 2913N 07835W 9249 00829 0175 +185 +181 304017 018 013 000 00
125000 2912N 07833W 9250 00827 0174 +188 +182 294018 018 015 000 00
125030 2912N 07831W 9250 00827 0173 +190 +181 292021 022 013 001 00
125100 2911N 07828W 9248 00829 0174 +187 +181 286022 023 014 000 00
125130 2911N 07826W 9248 00828 0174 +185 +184 285023 023 014 000 01
125200 2910N 07824W 9250 00828 //// +178 //// 285020 023 015 001 01
125230 2910N 07822W 9248 00830 0176 +182 +179 285018 019 012 000 01
125300 2910N 07820W 9248 00829 0176 +183 +181 285018 019 015 000 00
125330 2909N 07818W 9248 00829 0176 +184 +182 280017 018 011 000 00
125400 2909N 07816W 9250 00828 0176 +185 +182 273016 017 010 001 03
125430 2910N 07814W 9248 00829 0176 +185 +183 278014 014 /// /// 03
125500 2911N 07814W 9262 00812 //// +185 //// 290015 015 008 000 01
$$

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[NotoSans]

AL, 02, 2016052812, , BEST, 0, 300N, 780W, 30, 1009, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 120, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TWO, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 002,
12Z best track keeps it at 30kt. Wonder whether the plane will fly into the NW quadrant (where SFMR reported 40kt+ winds) before leaving.

[cycloneye]

Who wants to continue the posting of HDOB data?

[senorpepr]

40kt at 925hPa only supports around 30kt surface winds. Although SFMR reported several 40kt+ winds, the high rain rates make these questionable. Doesn't really justify an upgrade to TS IMO. The rise in central pressure is a bit shocking as well.

Good point, I forgot they were flying at 925 hPa.

[NotoSans]

Looks like shear is taking its toll as the LLCC becomes more separated from the convection. That's probably why it hasn't strengthened as suggested by recon.
And SHIPS now only calls for a minimal TS. Given the current trends I doubt it will be named before landfall.

[NotoSans]

000
URNT15 KNHC 281325
AF307 0202A CYCLONE HDOB 31 20160528
131530 3009N 07820W 9254 00801 0143 +205 +169 071003 004 006 001 00
131600 3010N 07821W 9247 00807 0143 +203 +176 077006 008 009 000 00
131630 3011N 07823W 9253 00801 0144 +199 +171 067006 008 009 000 00
131700 3012N 07824W 9248 00806 0143 +198 +187 056005 007 008 000 00
131730 3013N 07825W 9242 00811 //// +192 //// 060007 008 009 001 01
131800 3015N 07827W 9252 00801 0142 +200 +192 053006 008 008 000 00
131830 3016N 07828W 9248 00804 0139 +205 +192 046007 010 008 001 00
131900 3017N 07829W 9250 00802 0140 +197 +194 049014 016 009 000 01
131930 3018N 07831W 9249 00802 //// +189 //// 049018 020 014 000 01
132000 3019N 07832W 9248 00806 //// +185 //// 054022 023 022 000 01
132030 3020N 07833W 9253 00803 //// +187 //// 043019 022 023 000 01
132100 3021N 07835W 9245 00812 //// +187 //// 047017 020 021 000 01
132130 3022N 07836W 9251 00808 //// +187 //// 035017 018 023 002 01
132200 3023N 07837W 9246 00814 //// +187 //// 050020 021 024 001 01
132230 3024N 07839W 9250 00812 0154 +190 +187 044021 023 024 000 01
132300 3026N 07840W 9255 00805 0153 +189 +185 035024 025 024 002 01
132330 3027N 07841W 9246 00814 0152 +200 +174 031026 027 025 000 00
132400 3028N 07843W 9251 00810 0152 +203 +172 030025 026 025 000 00
132430 3029N 07844W 9249 00812 0153 +196 +179 035026 028 025 000 00
132500 3030N 07845W 9247 00815 0157 +188 +183 044029 030 024 000 00
$$
;

[tarheelprogrammer]

What shear that is minimal

[NotoSans]

000
URNT15 KNHC 281335
AF307 0202A CYCLONE HDOB 32 20160528
132530 3031N 07846W 9249 00814 0157 +192 +176 048030 031 024 000 00
132600 3032N 07848W 9250 00814 0160 +189 +179 047031 033 024 000 00
132630 3032N 07848W 9250 00814 0161 +191 +177 048032 034 024 000 00
132700 3034N 07850W 9249 00818 0163 +186 +177 047032 033 026 001 00
132730 3035N 07852W 9248 00820 0164 +185 +183 047033 033 027 000 01
132800 3036N 07853W 9249 00820 //// +180 //// 048031 032 027 000 01
132830 3037N 07854W 9249 00822 //// +180 //// 043031 031 026 001 01
132900 3038N 07856W 9247 00825 //// +180 //// 048029 030 024 001 01
132930 3040N 07857W 9248 00825 //// +180 //// 052030 030 024 000 01
133000 3041N 07858W 9251 00824 0172 +184 +184 054031 032 024 001 01
133030 3042N 07900W 9249 00826 0173 +184 +183 059031 032 024 001 00
133100 3043N 07901W 9248 00827 0174 +185 +181 062031 032 026 001 00
133130 3044N 07903W 9248 00826 0175 +183 +180 063035 036 026 001 05
133200 3045N 07904W 9250 00828 //// +180 //// 064035 037 026 001 01
133230 3046N 07905W 9248 00830 //// +180 //// 066030 032 025 002 01
133300 3047N 07907W 9250 00826 0176 +183 +181 060029 030 024 001 01
133330 3049N 07908W 9249 00830 0178 +181 +177 057028 028 025 001 00
133400 3050N 07910W 9248 00831 0179 +181 +172 060026 027 026 001 00
133430 3051N 07911W 9251 00828 0179 +183 +172 064026 027 026 000 00
133500 3052N 07912W 9250 00831 0182 +180 +176 065029 030 027 001 00
$$

[NotoSans]

Mission over.

000
URNT15 KNHC 281345
AF307 0202A CYCLONE HDOB 33 20160528
133530 3053N 07914W 9246 00836 0182 +182 +175 065029 030 025 001 00
133600 3054N 07915W 9249 00833 0182 +182 +174 065030 031 025 001 03
133630 3055N 07917W 9247 00837 //// +180 //// 060027 029 027 003 01
133700 3057N 07918W 9249 00833 0185 +181 //// 058028 029 026 004 01
133730 3058N 07919W 9242 00844 //// +178 //// 060027 028 026 005 01
133800 3059N 07921W 9256 00828 //// +180 //// 058026 028 025 000 01
133830 3100N 07922W 9248 00836 //// +181 //// 065025 026 021 000 01
133900 3101N 07924W 9245 00842 //// +181 //// 063025 026 021 000 01
133930 3102N 07925W 9246 00842 //// +179 //// 064024 025 020 001 01
134000 3103N 07926W 9245 00843 0190 +180 +175 066025 026 022 000 01
134030 3104N 07928W 9250 00839 0191 +184 +163 066024 025 021 000 00
134100 3106N 07929W 9248 00842 0192 +185 +162 067024 024 022 000 00
134130 3107N 07931W 9250 00842 0193 +181 +173 066025 025 023 000 03
134200 3107N 07932W 9167 00918 0194 +175 +168 060025 025 /// /// 03
134230 3107N 07934W 8714 01359 0202 +156 +153 057024 025 /// /// 03
134300 3106N 07936W 8296 01780 0206 +128 +117 057022 023 /// /// 03
134330 3106N 07938W 7863 02231 //// +105 //// 054018 021 /// /// 05
134400 3105N 07940W 7475 02638 0176 +088 +076 038016 018 018 000 05
134430 3104N 07942W 7229 02921 0182 +073 +063 033016 016 018 000 03
134500 3104N 07945W 6911 03296 0188 +052 +040 021017 017 020 000 03
$$
;

[NotoSans]

000
URNT12 KNHC 281343
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022016
A. 28/13:09:00Z
B. 29 deg 53 min N
078 deg 06 min W
C. 925 mb 808 m
D. 19 kt
E. 192 deg 36 nm
F. 306 deg 18 kt
G. 200 deg 23 nm
H. EXTRAP 1013 mb
I. 19 C / 762 m
J. 20 C / 760 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 9
O. 0.02 / 6 nm
P. AF307 0202A CYCLONE OB 12
MAX FL WIND 39 KT 038 / 66 NM 12:06:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 37 KT 312 / 71 NM 13:32:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
;

[Dean4Storms]

That combo of shear and cooler water overnight did a number on it. The LLC looks elongated NW to SE, can't see much more than a weak TS before landfall like NHC states.