2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[gatorcane]

Looks like the ECMWF low into Florida originates from the EPAC

[Kingarabian]

Looks like the ECMWF low into Florida originates from the EPAC

Looks like it was supposed to be the low that models were forming into a hurricane and hitting Mexico a few days ago.

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like the ECMWF low into Florida originates from the EPAC

Which explains why it's 10 days out verses the other global models which focus the energy in the Western Caribbean and within 6-8 days or so.

[SFLcane]

Nonsense more then likely epac hurricane

[stormwise]

I don't think the GOM low is a cross over from the epac ,Its likely monsoonal and originating out of central America.

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[cycloneye]

Nonsense more then likely epac hurricane

At the rate 91E is organizing with little shear forecast is a given.

[Hammy]

GFS has been trending more towards organization with the Florida system, now showing a closed albeit broad low coming onshore.

[TheStormExpert]

Only one run and will likely change this far out but the 00z Euro has trended stronger and much more organized with the low coming out of the Western Caribbean @ 168hrs. and exiting the East Coast of Florida @ 192hrs. with a pressure of 1000mb intensifying some from there as it heads ENE/NE out to sea.

[TheStormExpert]

GFS has been trending more towards organization with the Florida system, now showing a closed albeit broad low coming onshore.

Both the 00z GFS and Euro also agree exactly on timeframe and origin.

[Hammy]

GFS has been trending more towards organization with the Florida system, now showing a closed albeit broad low coming onshore.

Both the 00z GFS and Euro also agree exactly on timeframe and origin.

GEM seems to agree on timing as well, though an outlier on track as it takes it straight north.

[stormwise]

Almost every global model is now showing a low only model not atm is the JMA.

[Hammy]

Almost every global model is now showing a low only model not atm is the JMA.

JMA is mainly good for track guidance, I believe the resolution is very low on the public model (and thus doesn't always show weaker systems well.)

[stormwise]

GEFS-CMC ens run, still plenty of time but who knows what intensity the low will be.

[bamajammer4eva]

Doesn't look like it would be tropical according to this

[NDG]

Doesn't look like it would be tropical according to this

http://i.imgur.com/lvmsGWg.png

Euro shows that it will be of tropical origins as it forms over the western Caribbean with an UL anticyclone building very close to it but as it gets pulled by the frontal boundary/UL trough it may indeed get elongated, something to keep in mind is that the UL trough may help its outflow which may help in it get stronger.
BTW, I never look at ensembles when it comes to tropical development other than their forecasted mslp trends because its ensemble mean always seem to be not too detailed, IMO.

[AJC3]

Doesn't look like it would be tropical according to this

Not a fan of that nomenclature he's using in this case. A frontal wave implies wave formation occurs along the front, which this is decidedly *not* a case of. It's clearly a separate entity that pulls N to NNE toward FL while shearing out/elongating due to strong upper level winds north of 25N, *then* approaches and/or interacts with a front.

I saw similar incorrect usage of weather terminology by media mets prior to the formation of Bonnie, with several of them referring its pre-cursory disturbance as a "tropical wave". To me, that's tantamount to saying it's from an AEW (African easterly wave). In Bonnie's case, it actually started out as a....drum roll...FRONTAL WAVE! LOL

[AJC3]

FWIW, here are the discussions issued by TBW and MLB earlier this morning.

Take the MLB discussion with a grain of salt. I have it on good authority that the duty forecaster is a noob.

TBW...
.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night - Monday)...
During the second half of the week, the upper level pattern will
feature a cutoff low slowly crossing Texas, detached from the more
progressive flow pattern across the northern half of the CONUS.
Ahead of the cutoff low, weak upper level flow will hold over
Florida through upcoming weekend. At the surface, the subtropical
ridge axis will remain east of Florida, with light gradient winds
over Florida, allowing for a well defined sea breeze circulation
and scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing over the
Florida Peninsula each afternoon. By the second half of the
weekend, the upper/mid level trough will finally be approaching
Florida, bringing a slight increase in atmospheric moisture and
mid level instability to the region. As a result, a bit more
numerous storm coverage is expected for Sunday afternoon. By
Monday, a developing surface low will be moving north out of the
western Caribbean, and will introduce even higher moisture into
the forecast area. Although it is difficult to pin down the
specifics with a system this far out, the global models are in
good agreement with this system, so it is reasonable to assume
that at the very least rain chances will be more spread out
throughout the day, rather than the more typical afternoon
summertime convection driven by solar heating and the sea breeze
circulation.


MLB...
Sat-Mon...Mid/upper low over Texas will open up into a positive tilt
trough and remain quasi-stationary from this weekend into early next
week. Amplifying troughiness over the northeastern CONUS will flatten
the ridge over Florida, resulting in the flow aloft becoming SW-WSW.
The low level flow will also veer to south and southwesterly by
Sunday-Monday as a late season front presses toward the SE CONUS.

There remains an unusually good agreement among the suite of global
models with respect to a surface low of tropical origin (~1006MB)
ejecting N-NE out of the western Caribbean and toward Florida next
Monday into Tuesday. However, when it comes to the tropics in the
extended range the caveat of "Precision does not imply accuracy"
always applies, and even if such a system was to develop over the
western Caribbean, a gauntlet of strong upper level W-SW winds/shear
would appear to await the system if something were to reach 25N.

Whatever the case turns out to be, the pattern does imply what is
very likely to be a pretty significant increase in mean PWAT and
resultant rain chances early next week. Stay tuned...

[NDG]

The GFS's forecasted windshear is very similar to the ECMWF's forecast over the NW Caribbean. But as always UL winds are always the hardest for forecast by the models, so stay tuned.

[cycloneye]

The good thing about all of this is that we will get what NHC thinks when they begin to issue the TWO's on June 1.

[stormwise]

https://i.imgsafe.org/d83e78df13.png
EC has it puffing its chest up after it cross to the east.