ATL: BONNIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Once again ATCF puts back Invest 92L.

AL, 92, 2016060112, , BEST, 0, 335N, 771W, 20, 1009, LO

[cycloneye]

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD AL022016
1100 AM EDT WED JUN 01 2016

...CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BONNIE MEANDERING OFF CAPE FEAR
NORTH CAROLINA...HEAVY RAIN THREAT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY IN
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.4N 76.6W
ABOUT 90 MILES...145 KM...SE OF WILMINGTON/NEW HANOVER NORTH
CAROLINA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...40 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 090 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO WATCHES...WARNINGS...OR ADVISORIES ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM.

FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 33.4 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 76.6 WEST. THE CENTER OF
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BONNIE HAD BEEN MEANDERING OFF CAPE
FEAR...NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT. LATEST ANIMATION OF SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND RADAR COMPOSITE SUGGEST THAT A GENERAL EAST-NORTHEAST
FORWARD MOTION HAS RESUMED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. SOME BANDS OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ROTATING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. MORE ACTIVE CONVECTION IS FOUND JUST OFF THE COAST
AROUND THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION WHERE AN UNCONFIRMED 30-KNOT
NORTHWESTERLY WIND WAS REPORTED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.
THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE CENTRAL PRESSURE...BASED ON RECENT BUOY
OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE CENTER...WAS ABOUT 1010 MB. THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A GENERAL
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION TODAY...PASSING NEAR THE OUTER BANKS OF
NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC
TOMORROW. THE MAIN THREAT WITH BONNIE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER THE EASTERN PART OF NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH...40 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.


HAZARDS
-------
RAINFALL...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF 4 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH
THURSDAY. THESE RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR
LOCAL FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN REGIONS WHICH ARE ALREADY
SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL.


RAINFALL TOTALS
---------------
SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 8 AM EDT

...DELAWARE...
WILMINGTON 2 NW 2.23
GLASGOW 2.01
NEW CASTLE 1.94
TOWNSEND 1.86
KITTS HUMMOCK 1.82
PORT PENN 1.64
WOODSIDE 1.57
PRICES CORNER 1.57
DOVER AFB 1.50
GEORGETOWN/SUSSEX CO ARPT 1.43

...GEORGIA...
BURTONS FERRY LANDING 8.85
OLIVER 2 SW 7.74
MARLOW 7.46
NEWINGTON 1 S 4.92
BLICHTON 1 ESE 4.62
ROCKY FORD 1 SSW 4.07
AUGUSTA/BUSH FIELD 2.69
SAVANNAH MUNI ARPT 1.57

...MASSACHUSETTS...
PLYMOUTH MUNI ARPT 2.31
NEW BEDFORD MUNI ARPT 1.59
TAUNTON MUNI ARPT 1.21
BOSTON/LOGAN 1.13

...MARYLAND...
GALENA 3.51
CARVILLE 3 W 3.35
OCEAN CITY MUNI ARPT 2.77
SALISBURY RGNL ARPT 1.38
ANDREWS AFB/CAMP SPRINGS 1.31

...NORTH CAROLINA...
HATTERAS/BILLY MITCHELL AP 8.21
MAYSVILLE 7.5 SSE 5.42
BUXTON 1.0 ESE 5.12
HOLDEN BEACH 0.6 E 4.87
VARNAMTOWN 1.3 SSW 3.71
FAYETTEVILLE 1.6 WSW 3.29
ERWIN/HARNETT COUNTY ARPT 2.50
RALEIGH/DURHAM INTL ARPT 2.45
LAURINBURG-MAXTON ARPT 2.07
FORT BRAGG/FAYETTEVILLE 1.47
WILMINGTON/NEW HANOVER CO ARPT 1.45
CHAPEL HILL/WILLIAMS ARPT 1.34

...NEW JERSEY...
HAMILTON TOWNSHIP 4.52
EAST WINDSOR TWP 3.91
WESTAMPTON TWP 3.50
TRENTON 5 ESE 3.16
SPRINGDALE 3 W 3.14
MOUNT HOLLY WFO 3.08
SEWELL 2.93
TURNERSVILLE 2 S 2.76
MATAWAN 1 WSW 2.76
TOTTENVILLE 8 S 2.52
ATLANTIC CITY INTL AIRPORT 1.81
NEWARK INTL ARPT 1.60

...NEW YORK...
NEW YORK CITY 1.65
NEW YORK/LA GUARDIA 1.53

...PENNSYLVANIA...
JONAS 3.49
POHOPOCO CREEK 3.09
KRESGEVILLE 3.08
PALMERTON 6 ENE 3.00
WALNUTPORT 2.70
DREXEL HILL 2.51
PHILADELPHIA/NE PHIL. ARPT 2.35
PITTSBURGH/ALLEGHENY CO. ARPT 2.32
NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA 2.30
PHILADELPHIA INTL ARPT 1.51

...RHODE ISLAND...
PROVIDENCE/PO WARWICK 1.50
WESTERLY STATE ARPT 1.35
NEWPORT 1.33

...SOUTH CAROLINA...
RIDGELAND 5.8 ESE 10.43
OLD HOUSE 1 SSE 10.36
VARNVILLE 6.7 SW 9.03
LENA 4 ENE 9.03
NORTH CHARLESTON 2.6 NW 8.61
ARCHDALE 2 NE 8.61
BRUNSON 1.6 SSW 6.45
FOLLY BEACH 2.5 SW 6.44
JOHNS ISLAND 4 SE 6.24
ALLENDALE 1 S 6.14
HENDERSONVILLE 6.11 6.11
CALAWASSIE ISLAND 6.05
CHARLESTON AIRPORT 5.27
BEAUFORT 2 N 4.60

...VIRGINIA...
WAKEFIELD MUNI ARPT 2.56
RICHMOND 2.35
WALLOPS ISLAND 2.02
NORFOLK NAS 1.87
TINKER CREEK 1.39
LANGLEY AFB/HAMPTON 1.24
PETERSBURG 1.21
BUCHANAN 1 WNW 1.02


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 PM EDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON
THIS STORM.

FORECASTER KONG

FORECAST POSITIONS
------------------
INITIAL 01/1500Z 33.4N 76.6W
12HR VT 02/0000Z 33.8N 76.6W...POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 02/1200Z 34.5N 75.9W...POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 03/0000Z 35.4N 74.7W...POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 03/1200Z 36.4N 73.5W...POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW
$$

[tolakram]

live visible

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=35&lon=-77&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=8&mapcolor=black

[cycloneye]

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD AL022016
500 PM EDT WED JUN 01 2016

...CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BONNIE PASSING SOUTH OF CAPE
LOOKOUT...HEAVY RAIN THREAT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT IN
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.8N 76.0W
ABOUT 80 MILES...130 KM...SSE OF SMITH FIELD/BEAUFORT NORTH
CAROLINA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...40 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 075 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
FLOOD WATCHES AND A FLOOD ADVISORY ARE IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE
COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND FOR MUCH OF THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA.

FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 33.8 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST. OR ABOUT 70 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT...NORTH CAROLINA. LATEST
ANIMATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR COMPOSITE SHOW THAT
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BONNIE HAS ADOPTED A STEADY FORWARD MOTION
TOWARDS THE EAST-NORTHEAST IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT INDICATE THAT WINDS FROM THE
EAST-NORTHEAST HAVE STRENGTHENED TO AROUND 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 30 MPH. MEANWHILE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME
MORE ACTIVE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AS A LEADING BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS ROTATES WESTWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
LATEST RADAR IMAGES SHOW THAT BONNIE HAS MAINTAINED A FAIR AMOUNT
OF ROTATION AROUND THE CENTER. THEREFORE...THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS KEPT AT 1010 MB...THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING TOWARDS THE EAST-NORTHEAST FOR THE REST OF
TODAY...PASSING SOUTH OF THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC TOMORROW. THE MAIN THREAT
WITH BONNIE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A RISK OF
MODERATE RIP CURRENTS NEAR THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH...40 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.


HAZARDS
-------
RAINFALL...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF 4 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH
THURSDAY. THESE RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR
LOCAL FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN REGIONS WHICH ARE ALREADY
SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL.


RAINFALL TOTALS
---------------
SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 2 PM EDT

...DELAWARE...
WILMINGTON 2 NW 2.23
GLASGOW 2.01
NEW CASTLE 1.94
TOWNSEND 1.86
KITTS HUMMOCK 1.82
PORT PENN 1.64
WOODSIDE 1.57
PRICES CORNER 1.57
DOVER AFB 1.50
GEORGETOWN/SUSSEX CO ARPT 1.43

...GEORGIA...
BURTONS FERRY LANDING 8.85
OLIVER 2 SW 7.74
MARLOW 7.46
NEWINGTON 1 S 4.92
BLICHTON 1 ESE 4.62
ROCKY FORD 1 SSW 4.07
AUGUSTA/BUSH FIELD 2.69
SAVANNAH MUNI ARPT 1.57

...MASSACHUSETTS...
PLYMOUTH MUNI ARPT 2.31
NEW BEDFORD MUNI ARPT 1.59
TAUNTON MUNI ARPT 1.21
BOSTON/LOGAN 1.13

...MARYLAND...
GALENA 3.51
CARVILLE 3 W 3.35
OCEAN CITY MUNI ARPT 2.77
SALISBURY RGNL ARPT 1.38
ANDREWS AFB/CAMP SPRINGS 1.31

...NORTH CAROLINA...
HATTERAS/BILLY MITCHELL AP 8.21
MAYSVILLE 7.5 SSE 5.42
BUXTON 1.0 ESE 5.12
HOLDEN BEACH 0.6 E 4.87
VARNAMTOWN 1.3 SSW 3.71
FAYETTEVILLE 1.6 WSW 3.29
ERWIN/HARNETT COUNTY ARPT 2.50
RALEIGH/DURHAM INTL ARPT 2.45
SOUTHPORT/BRUNSWIC 2.20
NEW BERN/CRAVEN CO. ARPT 2.17
LAURINBURG-MAXTON ARPT 2.07
FORT BRAGG/FAYETTEVILLE 1.47
WILMINGTON/NEW HANOVER CO ARPT 1.45
CHAPEL HILL/WILLIAMS ARPT 1.34

...NEW JERSEY...
HAMILTON TOWNSHIP 4.52
EAST WINDSOR TWP 3.91
WESTAMPTON TWP 3.50
TRENTON 5 ESE 3.16
SPRINGDALE 3 W 3.14
MOUNT HOLLY WFO 3.08
SEWELL 2.93
TURNERSVILLE 2 S 2.76
MATAWAN 1 WSW 2.76
TOTTENVILLE 8 S 2.52
ATLANTIC CITY INTL AIRPORT 1.81
NEWARK INTL ARPT 1.60

...NEW YORK...
NEW YORK CITY 1.65
NEW YORK/LA GUARDIA 1.53

...PENNSYLVANIA...
JONAS 3.49
POHOPOCO CREEK 3.09
KRESGEVILLE 3.08
PALMERTON 6 ENE 3.00
WALNUTPORT 2.70
DREXEL HILL 2.51
PHILADELPHIA/NE PHIL. ARPT 2.35
PITTSBURGH/ALLEGHENY CO. ARPT 2.32
NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA 2.30
PHILADELPHIA INTL ARPT 1.51

...RHODE ISLAND...
PROVIDENCE/PO WARWICK 1.50
WESTERLY STATE ARPT 1.35
NEWPORT 1.33

...SOUTH CAROLINA...
RIDGELAND 5.8 ESE 10.43
OLD HOUSE 1 SSE 10.36
VARNVILLE 6.7 SW 9.03
LENA 4 ENE 9.03
NORTH CHARLESTON 2.6 NW 8.61
ARCHDALE 2 NE 8.61
BRUNSON 1.6 SSW 6.45
FOLLY BEACH 2.5 SW 6.44
JOHNS ISLAND 4 SE 6.24
ALLENDALE 1 S 6.14
HENDERSONVILLE 6.11 6.11
CALAWASSIE ISLAND 6.05
CHARLESTON AIRPORT 5.27
BEAUFORT 2 N 4.60

...VIRGINIA...
WAKEFIELD MUNI ARPT 2.56
RICHMOND 2.35
WALLOPS ISLAND 2.02
NORFOLK NAS 1.87
TINKER CREEK 1.39
LANGLEY AFB/HAMPTON 1.24
PETERSBURG 1.21
BUCHANAN 1 WNW 1.02


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT ADVISORY ISSUED AT 1100 PM EDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS
STORM.

FORECASTER KONG

FORECAST POSITIONS
------------------
INITIAL 01/2100Z 33.8N 76.0W
12HR VT 02/0600Z 34.2N 75.4W...POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 02/1800Z 34.7N 75.0W...POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 03/0600Z 35.3N 74.0W...POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 03/1800Z 35.4N 72.0W...POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW
$$

[TheAustinMan]

Not being mentioned in the NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook, but it indeed does look quite intriguing for a disturbance. Some convection is beginning to fire up over the center of circulation, which is surprisingly well-defined for all that time Bonnie spent meandering over land.

Latest radar:


2325 UTC satellite image. I brightened the image up a bit to bring out some more features as nightfall approaches.

[BobHarlem]

Interesting quirk on the floater page http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html
"Bonnie has become Bonnie"

[ozonepete]

Sure looks like it's regenerating. How much it can is the question.

[ozonepete]

Clearly regenerating. CDO developing over the LLC. And why not? SSTs are fine there over the Gulf Stream and shear is 10-20 knots tops. Of course time is short before it will encounter higher shear, but right now it's got a small window. Just sayin'...

[SouthDadeFish]

Looks pretty darn good to me! Radar presentation is solid as well. There are signs the center is in the process of reforming closer toward the deep convection. If convection persists over the center tonight, I don't see why this can't be considered a TC.

[gatorcane]

Agreed it looks like it is regenerating. Will the NHC issue a special statement perhaps?

[ozonepete]

Agreed it looks like it is regenerating. Will the NHC issue a special statement perhaps?

It's quite possible, especially since the western side will be affecting northeastern NC for most of the next 24 hours.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

We have what data suggests is a minimal tropical storm affecting the Outer Banks of North Carolina with no word whatsoever from the NHC. Glad to see they've got things handled....

[northjaxpro]

Clearly convection has developed over the circulation center and the cyclone is sitting directly over the Gulf Stream currently. Looks pretty good tonight. I agree with the rest of you that a case can be made based on satellite presentation that this is a TD or even a minimal TS again. The system has a very small window to develop or maintain itself before shear picks back up and eventually finishes off this cyclone for good.

[cycloneye]

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD AL022016
1100 PM EDT WED JUN 01 2016

...CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BONNIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...HEAVY RAIN THREAT EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.1N 75.8W
ABOUT 78 MILES...126 KM...S OF HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...20 MPH...32 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...14 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR A SMALL PORTION OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA OUTER BANKS.

FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 34.1 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST. ..OR ABOUT 75 MILES
SOUTH OF HATTERAS...NORTH CAROLINA. LATEST ANIMATION OF SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND RADAR COMPOSITE SHOW THAT POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BONNIE
HAS CONTINUED A FORWARD MOTION TOWARDS THE EAST-NORTHEAST IN THE
LAST FEW HOURS. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUOY OBSERVATIONS HAVE
MEASURED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
BOTH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DOPPLER RADAR HAVE INDICATED THAT A
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
IN ADDITION...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN BANDS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE
OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF BONNIE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE OUTER BANKS ON THURSDAY...AND WILL
CONTINUE MOVING OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE CHANCE OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BONNIE REDEVELOPING INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LOW. THE MAIN THREAT WITH BONNIE CONTINUES
TO BE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.86 INCHES.


HAZARDS
-------
RAINFALL...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF 4 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH
THURSDAY. THESE RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR
LOCAL FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN REGIONS WHICH ARE ALREADY
SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL.


RAINFALL TOTALS
---------------
SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 8 PM EDT

...DELAWARE...
WILMINGTON 2 NW 2.23
GLASGOW 2.01
NEW CASTLE 1.94
TOWNSEND 1.86
KITTS HUMMOCK 1.82
PORT PENN 1.64
WOODSIDE 1.57
PRICES CORNER 1.57
DOVER AFB 1.50
GEORGETOWN/SUSSEX CO ARPT 1.43

...GEORGIA...
BURTONS FERRY LANDING 8.85
OLIVER 2 SW 7.74
MARLOW 7.46
NEWINGTON 1 S 4.92
BLICHTON 1 ESE 4.62
ROCKY FORD 1 SSW 4.07
AUGUSTA/BUSH FIELD 2.69
SAVANNAH MUNI ARPT 1.57

...MASSACHUSETTS...
PLYMOUTH MUNI ARPT 2.31
NEW BEDFORD MUNI ARPT 1.59
TAUNTON MUNI ARPT 1.21
BOSTON/LOGAN 1.13

...MARYLAND...
GALENA 3.51
CARVILLE 3 W 3.35
OCEAN CITY MUNI ARPT 2.77
SALISBURY RGNL ARPT 1.38
ANDREWS AFB/CAMP SPRINGS 1.31

...NORTH CAROLINA...
HATTERAS/BILLY MITCHELL AP 8.24
MAYSVILLE 7.5 SSE 5.42
BUXTON 1.0 ESE 5.12
HOLDEN BEACH 0.6 E 4.87
VARNAMTOWN 1.3 SSW 3.71
FAYETTEVILLE 1.6 WSW 3.29
ERWIN/HARNETT COUNTY ARPT 2.50
RALEIGH/DURHAM INTL ARPT 2.45
SOUTHPORT/BRUNSWIC 2.20
NEW BERN/CRAVEN CO. ARPT 2.17
LAURINBURG-MAXTON ARPT 2.07
WILMINGTON/NEW HANOVER CO ARPT 1.70
FORT BRAGG/FAYETTEVILLE 1.47
CHAPEL HILL/WILLIAMS ARPT 1.34

...NEW JERSEY...
HAMILTON TOWNSHIP 4.52
EAST WINDSOR TWP 3.91
WESTAMPTON TWP 3.50
TRENTON 5 ESE 3.16
SPRINGDALE 3 W 3.14
MOUNT HOLLY WFO 3.08
SEWELL 2.93
TURNERSVILLE 2 S 2.76
MATAWAN 1 WSW 2.76
TOTTENVILLE 8 S 2.52
ATLANTIC CITY INTL AIRPORT 1.81
NEWARK INTL ARPT 1.60

...NEW YORK...
NEW YORK CITY 1.65
NEW YORK/LA GUARDIA 1.53

...PENNSYLVANIA...
JONAS 3.49
POHOPOCO CREEK 3.09
KRESGEVILLE 3.08
PALMERTON 6 ENE 3.00
WALNUTPORT 2.70
DREXEL HILL 2.51
PHILADELPHIA/NE PHIL. ARPT 2.35
PITTSBURGH/ALLEGHENY CO. ARPT 2.32
NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA 2.30
PHILADELPHIA INTL ARPT 1.51

...RHODE ISLAND...
PROVIDENCE/PO WARWICK 1.50
WESTERLY STATE ARPT 1.35
NEWPORT 1.33

...SOUTH CAROLINA...
RIDGELAND 5.8 ESE 10.43
VARNVILLE 6.7 SW 9.03
NORTH CHARLESTON 2.6 NW 8.61
BRUNSON 1.6 SSW 6.45
FOLLY BEACH 2.5 SW 6.44
JOHNS ISLAND 4 SE 6.24
ALLENDALE 1 S 6.14
HENDERSONVILLE 6.11 6.11
CALAWASSIE ISLAND 6.05
CHARLESTON AIRPORT 5.27
BEAUFORT 2 N 4.60

...VIRGINIA...
WAKEFIELD MUNI ARPT 2.88
RICHMOND 2.35
WALLOPS ISLAND 2.02
NORFOLK NAS 1.87
TINKER CREEK 1.39
LANGLEY AFB/HAMPTON 1.24
PETERSBURG 1.21
BUCHANAN 1 WNW 1.02


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT ADVISORY ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS
STORM.

FORECASTER FANNING

FORECAST POSITIONS
------------------
INITIAL 02/0300Z 34.1N 75.8W
12HR VT 02/1200Z 34.5N 75.9W...POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 03/0000Z 35.4N 74.7W...POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 03/1200Z 36.4N 73.5W...POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 04/0000Z 36.4N 72.8W...POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW
$$

[SouthDadeFish]

I really do not understand how this is not considered a TC right now. Radar presentation looks excellent. Although the storm is small, I can see cirrus outflow in all quadrants:



The center is pretty close to the outer banks.

[stormwise]

I really do not understand how this is not considered a TC right now. Radar presentation looks excellent. Although the storm is small, I can see cirrus outflow in all quadrants:



The center is pretty close to the outer banks.

Looks a cane on radar.

[TheStormExpert]

So why isn't this mentioned in the TWO?

[northjaxpro]

This is by far the best Bonnie has looked her entire life. She really has taken full advantage of the Gulf Stream, along with lighter wind shear currently. Look at the structure and banding on radar, with convection clearly wrapped around the circulation center. It may be small in size, but I do not see why this is not classified as a tropical storm at this time.

[Hammy]

This is by far the best Bonnie has looked her entire life. She really has taken full advantage of the Gulf Stream, along with lighter wind shear currently. Look at the structure and banding on radar, with convection clearly wrapped around the circulation center. It may be small in size, but I do not see why this is not classified as a tropical storm at this time.

Winds are still fairly weak at the moment, and the could be waiting either for persistence or for it to move away from the coast a bit.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah Hammy surprisingly winds out near the Outer Banks are no higher than about 20-25 mph currently. The radar presentation is excellent though. I would still be inclined at the moment to call it a depression at the very least.