Area of convection north of PR

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS seems to be latching on to this area, and it does seem to have the look but the shear would need to come down a little as its currently under 20kts of shear but don't be surprised if this tries to be become a weak tropical cyclone . Seems we're off to a really fast start to the 2016 hurricane season and it makes me fear for the main event of this hurricane season

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[hcane27]

By the numbers (since 1950) .. average storms forming between June 1 and November 30

no June .... 10.5 (32 years)
no June or July .... 9.2 (15 years)
June no July .... 9.2 (13 years)
June and July .... 12.4 (21 years)
July no June .... 11.6 (17 years)

[AutoPenalti]

Pretty interesting, shears dies within the next day or so and we could see a pretty good set up for a weak TC.

[Florida1118]

18z GFS drops the idea of the storm; doesn't even close a low off, just some kinks in the isobars.