Area of disturbed weather in NW Caribbean (Is Invest 93L)

[HURRICANELONNY]

Images couldn't open sflcane. Probably to the better. It is the Nogaps. Here in Hollywood. We don't really need anymore rain. Were on the plus side. But I here the west coast is somewhat dry. So hopefully you get some needed rain. Happy Hurricane Season!

[psyclone]

what a difference a year makes. May of 2015 featured tons of seabreeze storms focused on the west coast. this year we got shafted (which is actually normal) so we're in need at this point.

[SFLcane]

Images couldn't open sflcane. Probably to the better. It is the Nogaps. Here in Hollywood. We don't really need anymore rain. Were on the plus side. But I here the west coast is somewhat dry. So hopefully you get some needed rain. Happy Hurricane Season!

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 80&set=All

[HURRICANELONNY]

Got it sflcane. Was my security settings. I know it wont happen. Just the nogaps. Now if the globals latch on to that. I would pay attention.

[floridasun78]

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[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The NOAA Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Bonnie, located about 100 miles east of
Wilmington, North Carolina.

A broad low pressure area may form over the southern Gulf of Mexico
by early next week. Additional development of the low should be
slow to occur as the low moves slowly north-northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown

[gatorcane]

The GFS is showing a small upper anticyclone building in the Western Caribbean in response to the deep upper trough that builds over the NW Gulf. This upper anticyclone appears to move in tandemn with the low as it moves north than northeast in the Southern Gulf. But there looks to be just enough shear affecting the low that it can't deepen very quickly. For the second low the GFS develops, the upper anticyclone looks bigger so that second low is a bit stronger.

[Hurricaneman]

The 12zEuro showed a tropical storm making landfall in central Florida and over Orlando in 7 days so while its still in the longer range on both the Euro and GFS it shows a consensus and needs to be watched in the eastern GOM

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[gatorcane]

Looking rather unsettled across the southern Caribbean and EPAC:

[BlueWater36]

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Your browser is displaying that message because the website is using an outdated encryption method. In my opinion, it's still safe to visit as long as you are not transferring sensitive data to the website (passwords, etc.)

[NDG]

The GFS is showing a small upper anticyclone building in the Western Caribbean in response to the deep upper trough that builds over the NW Gulf. This upper anticyclone appears to move in tandemn with the low as it moves north than northeast in the Southern Gulf. But there looks to be just enough shear affecting the low that it can't deepen very quickly. For the second low the GFS develops, the upper anticyclone looks bigger so that second low is a bit stronger.

The Euro has also been showing an UL anticylone building in the western Caribeean/extreme southern GOM, but stops it there.

[tarheelprogrammer]

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Your browser is displaying that message because the website is using an outdated encryption method. In my opinion, it's still safe to visit as long as you are not transferring sensitive data to the website (passwords, etc.)

As a computer programmer I second what he said. I visited the site and it is fine.

[northjaxpro]

Well, not shocked by what the models are showing with potential for development in the NW Caribbean/Southern GOM within the next week. An MJO spike was forecast for this portion of the Atlantic basin going back to last weekend. Also, as a few of you have pointed out, look at the huge moisture plume already evident this evening already from the Southern Caribbean west across Central America into the EPAC. It appears a monsoonal trough may be in its early developmental stage. Plus, as time progresses, this moisture will all be drawn north.

This potentially could be a major rain event coming for the Florida peninsula, especially South Florida heading into next week.

[CrazyC83]

There are no model runs until it is declared an Invest, correct?

[floridasun78]

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Your browser is displaying that message because the website is using an outdated encryption method. In my opinion, it's still safe to visit as long as you are not transferring sensitive data to the website (passwords, etc.)

ok ty

[floridasun78]

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Your browser is displaying that message because the website is using an outdated encryption method. In my opinion, it's still safe to visit as long as you are not transferring sensitive data to the website (passwords, etc.)

As a computer programmer I second what he said. I visited the site and it is fine.

ok ty for that information

[AdamFirst]

There are no model runs until it is declared an Invest, correct?

Aside from the global runs, no.

I informed the Miami Dolphins fan forum I'm apart of about this system in the ongoing stadium renovations thread. Construction was halted for many days back in January and early February when the El Nino rain events moved through South Florida, essentially placing the project completion right at the deadline or behind schedule. The first Dolphins preseason game was moved to the Orlando Citrus Bowl today. This system and its possible prolonged rain event may delay the construction even further.

[cycloneye]

There are no model runs until it is declared an Invest, correct?

If you are referring to the BAMS,SHIP,DSHIP,they run when there is a invest.

[Steve]

Looks like gfs coalesces a low off the NE Yucatan from surface energy from the tropics moving into interrupted flow to the nw. Low res gfs brings it down to 1004 which I'm assuming is TS level but really doesn't crank it up. It crosses Florida in about a week in the Tampa area with what appears to be the worst weather in a band to the NE of the circulation. GFS doesn't race it across the state but does move it steadily. Looks like the worst from this run would be the lakes over Gainesville and Ocala and just south of maybe around St Augustine. It's a long way out, and luckily GFS doesn't show it getting strong. But it shows a potential 'landfall' next week in the US. 2016. I think what it shows keeping the system in check is the strong upper flow acros the northern gulf. GFS isn't showing a panic situation by any means, but you'd have to think there would be some tropical storm conditions in Florida if it is close to being right.

[stormwise]

https://i.imgsafe.org/fbce27443f.png

https://i.imgsafe.org/fbd8038762.png

Will be a difficult forecast both EC/GEFS ensembles have a 999mb included in the clusters.