Steve wrote:Looks like gfs coalesces a low off the NE Yucatan from surface energy from the tropics moving into interrupted flow to the nw. Low res gfs brings it down to 1004 which I'm assuming is TS level but really doesn't crank it up. It crosses Florida in about a week in the Tampa area with what appears to be the worst weather in a band to the NE of the circulation. GFS doesn't race it across the state but does move it steadily. Looks like the worst from this run would be the lakes over Gainesville and Ocala and just south of maybe around St Augustine. It's a long way out, and luckily GFS doesn't show it getting strong. But it shows a potential 'landfall' next week in the US. 2016. I think what it shows keeping the system in check is the strong upper flow acros the northern gulf. GFS isn't showing a panic situation by any means, but you'd have to think there would be some tropical storm conditions in Florida if it is close to being right.
Sounds like the typical early season garbage that comes up this way. Tropical storm Andrea (2013) featured that very configuration you referenced, with the most active weather almost taking the shape of a squall line on the system's eastern flank. it was a rather pitiful excuse of a storm but yielded some interesting weather. This set up has become rather routine so it'll be interesting to see if this becomes another feather in the climo cap.
