Area of disturbed weather in NW Caribbean (Is Invest 93L)

[Stormcenter]

Sorry for the pessimism but I'll believe it when I see it. IMO

[Alyono]

999 mb would be closer to around 65 - 70 mph. Am I correct? Reminds me more of a gabrielle from 2001 i believe it was.

Gabrielle was 980mb at landfall

[psyclone]

999 mb would be closer to around 65 - 70 mph. Am I correct? Reminds me more of a gabrielle from 2001 i believe it was.

Gabrielle was 980mb at landfall

Gabrielle was a solid system close to hurricane strength in mid Sept. It caused some decent damage south of Tampa Bay. Andrea (2013) made landfall with a 992 pressure(seems decent) but that system was rather paltry overall.

[cycloneye]

Maybe this is the birth area of what may occur downstream in SGOM.This is east of Nicaragua.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Maybe this is the birth area of what may occur downstream in SGOM.This is east of Nicaragua.

Sure is an impressive blow up of convection right? Could it be what is coming down the road for the Gulf of Mexico? Shear is coming down some in the Caribbean.

[TheStormExpert]

If we get Colin out of this it would be the earliest official "C" Storm to form, even earlier than Hurricane Chris(2012).

Jonathan Erdman
‏@wxjerdman
The only June Atlantic "C" storms I can find in the NOAA database. More "unnamed" June TCs prior to 1950s, though.

[RL3AO]

Recon potentially flying out on Sunday.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT THU 02 JUNE 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z JUNE 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-007

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST NEAR YUCATAN
PENINSULA FOR 05/2000Z.
4. REMARK: MISSION TASKED FOR 02/1800Z IN TCPOD 16-006 WILL FLY
AS SCHEDULED TODAY.

[bamajammer4eva]

Gfs looks stronger and faster as it's down to 1002mb at the 102 and father up into the guilf than prior runs at the same time

[WeatherEmperor]

12z Gfs at 108hr is stronger than before. Now down to 1001mb. I believe this is the strongest the Gfs has shown this getting. Moving NE towards Tampa.

[cycloneye]

This is for next Monday.Stronger just off Yucatan.

[WeatherEmperor]

Gfs at 114hr is down to 999mb moving NE towards Tampa still. Wow its getting stronger

[TheStormExpert]

Peaks @ 998mb in the NE GoM @ 114hrs.

[tarheelprogrammer]

I think this storm makes a run at hurricane strength if it gets together sooner than the tip of the Yucatan.

[xcool22]

I think go be more to west on 18z gfs imo

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

Those who may have a forecast add our Storm2k disclaimer,thank you.

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Janie2006]

No reason to doubt the movement prognostication at this point...at least as long as that front hangs over the northern Gulf coast or moves just into the Gulf waters. "Blob" gets picked up and shunted into the peninsula, yes?

[psyclone]

I think this storm makes a run at hurricane strength if it gets together sooner than the tip of the Yucatan.

I would bet against that. While it's easy to get sloppy, poorly organized tropical systems in June, hurricanes are rare, especially early in the month. There's just too much going against them with marginal OHC and often lousy upper level winds. A broad low can sport a seemingly respectable pressure and still be a weak system... I would again reference Andrea @ 992 mb. it wasn't much despite a decent surface pressure. Whether we get no system, a tropical depression or a even a low end TS, the sensible wx probably won't differ too much...very heavy rain and some svr wx potential will likely be the highlights...but of course we watch with intense interest in case mother nature decides to toss a curveball.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[

[cycloneye]

I think go be more to west on 18z gfs imo

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Added the disclaimer.

[WeatherEmperor]

Now that the Gfs came in a bit stronger I am really gonna watch the Euro. If that is also stronger we have a good consensus to go with.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Hurricane? Lol. Tooo much shear up there in the Gulf with the front sagging down next week. Althought if it makes it to colin then I would think more rain north then me in south fl. But thats all speculation and I have no clue. When we get a llc then maybe will know more. Right now just lower pressures down there so models pop everything cause they have no clue either.