Area of disturbed weather in NW Caribbean (Is Invest 93L)

[TheStormExpert]

I think this storm makes a run at hurricane strength if it gets together sooner than the tip of the Yucatan.

I would bet against that. While it's easy to get sloppy, poorly organized tropical systems in June, hurricanes are rare, especially early in the month. There's just too much going against them with marginal OHC and often lousy upper level winds. A broad low can sport a seemingly respectable pressure and still be a weak system... I would again reference Andrea @ 992 mb. it wasn't much despite a decent surface pressure. Whether we get no system, a tropical depression or a even a low end TS, the sensible wx probably won't differ too much...very heavy rain and some svr wx potential will likely be the highlights...but of course we watch with intense interest in case mother nature decides to toss a curveball.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[

Another possible analog storm that almost made a run at minimal Cat.1 strength is TS Alberto(2006). The NHC even posted Hurricane Warnings for the FL Big Bend region, though I feel there was some over-hype thanks to it proceeding the 2005 season.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Alberto_(2006)

Formed in almost the same area this low is expected to form(though over water in the W. Caribbean). Was also rather loop-sided to the East, but I kind of agree with you psyclone that a hurricane seems unlikely(but never say never).

[Evil Jeremy]

Well, I picked the worst weekend ever to go on a cruise. No internet (not at those prices), and when I step off the ship Monday morning I get 36(ish) hours of storm prep, depending on what part of Florida this strikes. Either way, a very wet week ahead for the peninsula. Clearly the Atlantic is not wasting any time getting rolling this year. Looking forward to the ECMWF in an hour or so.

[RL3AO]

Assuming the EC doesn't change its tune, I wouldn't be surprised to see 50 or 60% at 2pm.

I'm still thinking a 40 to 50kt TS is the most likely outcome. I'm interested to see if we get the first storm surge inundation graphic issued for Florida. It obviously could be impacting a very susceptible area where it doesn't take much to get 3+ feet of surge.

Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Evil Jeremy]

Assuming the EC doesn't change its tune, I wouldn't be surprised to see 50 or 60% at 2pm.

Have we had a 5 day TWO as high as 60% with the 2 day at 0% since the introduction of the 5 day TWO?

[WeatherEmperor]

Fwiw the Canadian has a strong tropical storm into the Florida Big Bend area. Cant tell if it is at hurricane strength but strong tropical storm at the least

[tarheelprogrammer]

I think this storm makes a run at hurricane strength if it gets together sooner than the tip of the Yucatan.

I would bet against that. While it's easy to get sloppy, poorly organized tropical systems in June, hurricanes are rare, especially early in the month. There's just too much going against them with marginal OHC and often lousy upper level winds. A broad low can sport a seemingly respectable pressure and still be a weak system... I would again reference Andrea @ 992 mb. it wasn't much despite a decent surface pressure. Whether we get no system, a tropical depression or a even a low end TS, the sensible wx probably won't differ too much...very heavy rain and some svr wx potential will likely be the highlights...but of course we watch with intense interest in case mother nature decides to toss a curveball.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[

True when I say makes a run at hurricane strength I still think it only gets to 65 or 70 mph at max. Which is technically making a run at hurricane strength but falling short. Could it become a hurricane? Sure it could water temps are above average and as long as shear cooperates it is possible but unlikely. Thanks for your input and you are no doubt right about Andrea.

[psyclone]

Assuming the EC doesn't change its tune, I wouldn't be surprised to see 50 or 60% at 2pm.

I'm still thinking a 40 to 50kt TS is the most likely outcome. I'm interested to see if we get the first storm surge inundation graphic issued for Florida. It obviously could be impacting a very susceptible area where it doesn't take much to get 3+ feet of surge.

Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The NHC has ample time to continue to step up development probs in 10% increments. I'd be surprised if they deviated from that but we'll see. Your point on water rise potential is valid. Steve Lyons used to refer to the big bend region as the most storm surge prone area in the Atlantic basin. I have no doubt he was correct as even weak systems can generate impressive water rises. I've seen water rises of a couple of feet around here just from a big swell, even with an offshore wind (hurricane Ike 2008 for example).

[RL3AO]

The NHC has ample time to continue to step up development probs in 10% increments. I'd be surprised if they deviated from that but we'll see. Your point on water rise potential is valid. Steve Lyons used to refer to the big bend region as the most storm surge prone area in the Atlantic basin. I have no doubt he was correct as even weak systems can generate impressive water rises. I've seen water rises of a couple of feet around here just from a big swell, even with an offshore wind (hurricane Ike 2008 for example).

I'll admit I have some selfish reasons for wanting there to be something. I'm working in the storm surge unit this summer and would like to see the new products at work without there being a major hurricane into the US.

[cycloneye]

In terms of having Invest 93L up,it looks like we will have it sometime in the Friday or Saturday timeframe as the TCPOD has a low level invest mission programmed for Sunday.In the meantime we stick in this thread.

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[WeatherEmperor]

I dont see anything wrong with that. Im sure a lot of hard work went into creating those storm surge products. I would like to see the products as well. Im very curious

The NHC has ample time to continue to step up development probs in 10% increments. I'd be surprised if they deviated from that but we'll see. Your point on water rise potential is valid. Steve Lyons used to refer to the big bend region as the most storm surge prone area in the Atlantic basin. I have no doubt he was correct as even weak systems can generate impressive water rises. I've seen water rises of a couple of feet around here just from a big swell, even with an offshore wind (hurricane Ike 2008 for example).

I'll admit I have some selfish reasons for wanting there to be something. I'm working in the storm surge unit this summer and would like to see the new products at work without there being a major hurricane into the US.

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

The difference with this run and prior GFS runs is that the GFS is keeping the small anticyclone (i.e. the clockwise windflow in the image around the storm) right over the low as it pulls north out of the Caribbean into the Eastern Gulf. Do note the GFS has always shown this anticyclone only that the low was not right underneath it. Looks like as the storm approaches the west coast of Florida shear increases and it weakens a little.

Another thing to keep in mind is that SSTs are quite warm along the path of this system quite capable of supporting a hurricane. I was checking buoys in the NW Caribbean and Eastern Gulf. SSTs are in the 82-84F range in the Eastern Gulf and around 84F-85F in the NW Caribbean. If the upper-level winds cooperate and there is not a lot of land interaction with the Yucatan, no reason we couldn't see a hurricane though that is not what I am expecting at this time.

[tarheelprogrammer]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

The difference with this run and prior GFS runs is that the GFS is keeping the small anticyclone (i.e. the clockwise windflow in the image around the storm) right over the low as it pulls north out of the Caribbean into the Eastern Gulf. Do note the GFS has always shown this anticyclone only that the low was not right underneath it. Looks like as the storm approaches the west coast of Florida shear increases and it weakens a little.

Another thing to keep in mind is that SSTs are quite warm along the path of this system quite capable of supporting a hurricane. I was checking buoys in the NW Caribbean and Eastern Gulf. SSTs are in the 82-84F range in the Eastern Gulf and around 84F-85F in the NW Caribbean. If the upper-level winds cooperate and there is not a lot of land interaction with the Yucatan, no reason we couldn't see a hurricane though that is not what I am expecting at this time.

Nice input and yes I agree with everything you said. Shear will not be terrible until getting close with land or at least it looks like that.

[Weatherboy1]

Time for my first post of the season - and on a potential "C" storm in early June no less. How about that? In any event, it really does all depend on where an eventual LLC gets its act together (if it does). Obviously there is potential for some kind of nasty weather over the FL peninsula. But how nasty? Where? Too many questions at this point. My wife hates it when I say "We'll know more in 36-48 hours" but I feel like that's the best advice for now. Haha!

[cycloneye]

Up to 40% in 5 days.

A broad low pressure area is expected to form over the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico or the southern Gulf of Mexico by late in the
weekend. Additional development of the low could occur as it
subsequently moves north-northeastward across the central or
eastern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[WeatherEmperor]

Fwiw, the 12z Navgem aka Nogaps has a strong tropical storm somewhere inbetween Naples and Fort Meyers

[Weatherboy1]

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/tropical-system-may-eye-drench-florida-early-next-week-tropical-depression-3-storm-collin-atlantic/57870723

Also FWIW, here is Accuweather's take from not too long ago ...

[AdamFirst]

12z EURO is off and running. A weak reflection above the Yucatan at 72 hours (Sunday), but nothing closed just yet.

[Evil Jeremy]

12z EURO is off and running. A weak reflection above the Yucatan at 72 hours (Sunday), but nothing closed just yet.

Closed at 96


At 120 hours, looks headed to Big Bend.

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF send it ENE between big bend and Tampa. Looks like a tropical storm:

[AdamFirst]

Around 120 hours it has a 1003mb closed low pushing into north of Tampa, with an extremely fast ejection out to sea - far southeast of Cape Hatteras at 144 hours heading ENE.