Area of disturbed weather in NW Caribbean (Is Invest 93L)

[robbielyn]

looks to me like there is already some rotation in the clouds in the SW Caribbean - probably mid-level but interesting to say the least. If it is mid-level the blob won't sustain and will fizzle.

http://i.imgur.com/vz8PPDO.gif

When I saw it rotating a little earlier that is what I was thinking as well. There is a spin to it but IDK what level it is at. It could be the way the convection is dying off it makes it look that way? IDK I am a programmer not a MET.

Wow if it would have symmetry on all 4 quads as emerges into the gulf, this would be a decent sized storm but usually with gulf shear these storms these are usually eastern lopsided elongated mess by the time its headed toward fl.

[xcool22]

.The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products


quite interesting year maybe so

[Alyono]

convection should wax and wane over the next couple of days. Likely won't see any real development until Sunday

[psyclone]

FWIW HPC 7 day QPF has shifted the heaviest rain north from prior day outlooks with 5"+ amounts running from Citrus county to Lee county. the entire peninsula gets a good soaking with the northern extent of heavy rain all the way up toward Jacksonville. I would imagine that anyone east or south of the low center is fair game for a good dumping.

[NDG]

convection should wax and wane over the next couple of days. Likely won't see any real development until Sunday

Both GFS and Euro keep showing convection keep redeveloping as the tropical travels NW towards the Yucatan/southern GOM over the next couple of days.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Where on the NHC map do the show the % chance for development. I see nothing.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

[NDG]

18z GFS keeps insisting in low pressure developing over the GOH early Sunday morning.

[AdamFirst]

Where on the NHC map do the show the % chance for development. I see nothing.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Click on "five-day graphical outlook" below the map

[northjaxpro]

I am inclined to believe those of you who are using T.S. Debby in 2012 as an analog for this potential system that may impact the Florida peninsula next week. This potential system has the similar make-up as to what Debby had, which was a development from a monsoonal gyre which propagated northward. Like Debby in 2012, this potential system I believe will be lopsided due to increasing westerly shear beginning on Monday as a front approaches from the NW GOM. Also, just like Debby, this system next week has to potential to drop a substantial amount of rain across Florida. However, the saving grace this time, as opposed to Debby in 2012, will be that this system should get picked up and move quickly across Florida with the upper trough early week. This should hopefully prevent a repeat of the massive flooding event which occured with Debby across a good portion of the peninsula, including my locale, which picked up over 15 inches during that event.

I have noticed the recent EURO runs have shifted a bit more north and west with this potential system, showing a TS nearing the NE GOM region on 12Z Tuesday morning. Interesting there for that run, as if it were to verify, that would shift the heaviest rain north up the peninsula into Central and portions of North and Northeast Florida on Tuesday into Wednesday of next week with the system moving over the peninsula. Very interesting times ahead. 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season is alive and roaring here at the start for sure in our region of the basin!

[AdamFirst]

18z GFS consolidates the low off the coast of Belieze in 60 hours. Shows a 1000mb closed low pushing directly into Tampa Bay at 114 hours (late Day 4, early Tuesday) with a quick ride up I-4 and into the Atlantic off Daytona by the end of the day Tuesday.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, it seems for the time being, EURO and GFS are coming together with the cyclone moving up through or just north of the I-4 corridor during the day on Tuesday. FOR NOW. Of course, we are probably going to see variances with this as time progresses.

[psyclone]

These are the only direct strikes I want...a weak TS dumping on dry to parched terrain. Lots of crunchy grass around here..

[NDG]

This is precisely the type of system I'll happily "wishcast" to my backyard. We are very dry here and in need of a swamping to break the dry spell... and an unusually wet period provides a welcome break from the heat too. fingers crossed. While TC development is (at least at this point) unlikely, it looks like a surge of deep moisture is likely (from the I-4 corridor south)...needless to say interesting times are ahead.

All indications are that this will not be a weak TS.

[psyclone]

This is precisely the type of system I'll happily "wishcast" to my backyard. We are very dry here and in need of a swamping to break the dry spell... and an unusually wet period provides a welcome break from the heat too. fingers crossed. While TC development is (at least at this point) unlikely, it looks like a surge of deep moisture is likely (from the I-4 corridor south)...needless to say interesting times are ahead.

All indications are that this will not be a weak TS.

What are you anticipating?

[SeGaBob]

Whether it forms or not I'm hoping you'll get a good rain out of this

[RL3AO]

This is precisely the type of system I'll happily "wishcast" to my backyard. We are very dry here and in need of a swamping to break the dry spell... and an unusually wet period provides a welcome break from the heat too. fingers crossed. While TC development is (at least at this point) unlikely, it looks like a surge of deep moisture is likely (from the I-4 corridor south)...needless to say interesting times are ahead.

All indications are that this will not be a weak TS.

I don't know if I agree with that. Sure the GFS shows 1000 mb, but its also showing a max wind of 35 kt. I don't think we've seen a ton of evidence so far that anything more than 50 knots is likely. (Obviously subject to change).

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Hammy]

This is precisely the type of system I'll happily "wishcast" to my backyard. We are very dry here and in need of a swamping to break the dry spell... and an unusually wet period provides a welcome break from the heat too. fingers crossed. While TC development is (at least at this point) unlikely, it looks like a surge of deep moisture is likely (from the I-4 corridor south)...needless to say interesting times are ahead.

All indications are that this will not be a weak TS.

I don't know if I agree with that. Sure the GFS shows 1000 mb, but its also showing a max wind of 35 kt. I don't think we've seen a ton of evidence so far that anything more than 50 knots is likely. (Obviously subject to change).

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

GFS never showed more than 25kt with Bonnie either, so it could be underestimating the intensity. Euro/GEM show mid-to-strong TS.

[BobHarlem]

GFS never showed more than 25kt with Bonnie either, so it could be underestimating the intensity. Euro/GEM show mid-to-strong TS.

That along with how fast it zips across the state make me wonder if winds will be a bit high in spots, and along with that the setup for the tornadoes.

[AJC3]

Where on the NHC map do the show the % chance for development. I see nothing.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

You must be looking at the 2-day outlook graphic. Nothing is on that because it's 0 percent.

It's there in the 5-day outlook.

[Dean4Storms]

Hard to figure the intensity possibility this far out with dry air expected over the Northern Gulf and shear from the West or SW, even the models are just hunching until we have an exact center and the planes get out there and provide samples of the atmosphere. Less dry air and a faster movement eastward could offset some shear and this could really pop in a hurry or the opposite occurs.

One thing looking for sure, lots of rain for the peninsula!