Area of disturbed weather in NW Caribbean (Is Invest 93L)

[northjaxpro]

GFS never showed more than 25kt with Bonnie either, so it could be underestimating the intensity. Euro/GEM show mid-to-strong TS.

That along with how fast it zips across the state make me wonder if winds will be a bit high in spots, and along with that the setup for the tornadoes.

Yeah, now that is a big concern with me, as with all landfalling tropical cyclones, and that is the threat of tornadoes.

[cycloneye]

No change in % at 8 PM TWO.

A broad low pressure area is expected to form over the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico or the southern Gulf of Mexico by late in the
weekend. Additional development of the low could occur as it
subsequently moves north-northeastward across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico and the Florida peninsula.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[Alyono]

I will state that in my professional opinion, the chances are a LOT higher than 40 percent. It is more likely than not something will form from this area. The 40 percent is saying it is more likely than not that nothing will form

With the model agreement the way it is, the development chance may be closer to 80 percent

[northjaxpro]

I can assure you the chances are a LOT higher than 40 percent. It is more likely than not something will form from this area. The 40 percent is saying it is more likely than not that nothing will form

With the model agreement the way it is, the development chance may be closer to 80 percent

I totally agree with you about this!

[psyclone]

they have plenty of time to lift chances as the time frame reels in...with 4 TWO issuances a day you can get to 100% pretty quick just going up 10% at a time. even if they just go up 10% every other TWO you get there pretty quick...especially when you're already 2/5 there.

[RL3AO]

I will state that in my professional opinion, the chances are a LOT higher than 40 percent. It is more likely than not something will form from this area. The 40 percent is saying it is more likely than not that nothing will form

With the model agreement the way it is, the development chance may be closer to 80 percent

Some of the mets I talked to today seemed to be leaning towards your view I'm kinda surprised Beven only jumped it to 40% and that Pasch kept it there.

[cycloneye]

I will state that in my professional opinion, the chances are a LOT higher than 40 percent. It is more likely than not something will form from this area. The 40 percent is saying it is more likely than not that nothing will form

With the model agreement the way it is, the development chance may be closer to 80 percent

Some of the mets I talked to today seemed to be leaning towards your view I'm kinda surprised Beven only jumped it to 40% and that Pasch kept it there.

Well,I don't know if Pasch being known as more conservative than other NHC forecasters has to do with leaving it at 40%.

[northjaxpro]

The ingredients are coming together very quickly already concerning development. I know Recon is scheduled to investigate on Sunday near the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, but I think there is a possibility we may see development come as early as late Saturday. Observing satellite imagery in the SW Caribbean, the area of distrurbed weather looks to have a spin at the mid levels already. Plenty of deep tropical moisture already in place, and if shear turns out to be not as strong as initially thought down there over the next 48 hours, I would not be surprised to see development happen a bit sooner.

[gatorcane]

Latest shear tendency map is showing that the shear is decreasing over the extreme SW Caribbean and also notice the belt of strong shear over the Southern Gulf and NW Caribbean is starting to see some "holes" as we see pockets of decreasing shear:

[AJC3]

I will state that in my professional opinion, the chances are a LOT higher than 40 percent. It is more likely than not something will form from this area. The 40 percent is saying it is more likely than not that nothing will form

With the model agreement the way it is, the development chance may be closer to 80 percent

Combine that with the historical genesis point clustering in that area for June, I can't disagree at all.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/738498686867509248

[CrazyC83]

I will state that in my professional opinion, the chances are a LOT higher than 40 percent. It is more likely than not something will form from this area. The 40 percent is saying it is more likely than not that nothing will form

With the model agreement the way it is, the development chance may be closer to 80 percent

Beyond 5 days I think it is almost inevitable, but even within the timeframe I agree it should be higher. I'd personally have it at 10/70.

[cycloneye]

That Upper Low in Texas will help ventilate the system coming out of Yucatan to aid in the development phase.Timing will be very important.



This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS ensembles with a bullseye over Tampa Bay

[NDG]

This is precisely the type of system I'll happily "wishcast" to my backyard. We are very dry here and in need of a swamping to break the dry spell... and an unusually wet period provides a welcome break from the heat too. fingers crossed. While TC development is (at least at this point) unlikely, it looks like a surge of deep moisture is likely (from the I-4 corridor south)...needless to say interesting times are ahead.

All indications are that this will not be a weak TS.

What are you anticipating?

I am thinking at least strong TS is a good chance at this time.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[RL3AO]

18Z GFS ensembles with a bullseye over Tampa Bay

[ img]http://i.imgur.com/gQL31pz.png[/img]

Just looked at the Euro ensembles. It is much more spread out, but generally in the same area. Looks like a lot of 1001 to 1005 mb lows.

[BobHarlem]

How useful is the "off-focus" gfdl, in particular you can see the Gulf system going toward the big bend in the Bonnie GFDL run here http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

(HWRF also shows big bend)

[Evil Jeremy]

While I understand the chances of development are likely better than 40%, it's hard to justify going over 50% (and declaring likely formation) in a five day range when the system doesn't even exist yet. Sure, the ingredients are there, but they haven't started baking yet.

[tarheelprogrammer]

While I understand the chances of development are likely better than 40%, it's hard to justify going over 50% (and declaring likely formation) in a five day range when the system doesn't even exist yet. Sure, the ingredients are there, but they haven't started baking yet.

I agree here. Chances should stay at 40 percent until there is something we can look at. Good description too with the baking. Getting hungry now.

[Alyono]

the 5 day probability is the probability that we will have a tropical cyclone. Those chances are greater than 40 percent. Genesis is more likely than not at this point.

The fact that we do not have anything currently should not have a bearing on whether or not we will have something within 5 days.

[TheStormExpert]

All indications are that this will not be a weak TS.

What are you anticipating?

I am thinking at least strong TS is a good chance at this time.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Strong TS at landfall in Florida or on its way out to sea?