ATL: COLIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

They have not gone so far with anything to the northeast as they continue to plot the same low now close to the Yucatan coast.

Location: 18.5°N 87.5°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 250 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 100 NM

[NDG]

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 6 minutes ago

One LLC has already formed beneath & decoupled from the convective mass, moving just south of Cozumel. More may come

That's the same eddy I mentioned earlier.

[gatorcane]

Convection on the increase near greatest vorticity over the NW Caribbean Sea (see 850mb vort map on previous page)

[northjaxpro]

Slowly, 93L is pulling together. WV imagery shows Western Caribbean Upper Ridge trying to build over 93L, with the decent outflow on the developing cyclone's NE/E quadrant.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks quite messy at the moment with all the thunderstorm activity displaced to the east and the overall structure remains elongated east to west. Nevertheless, it's almost there. upper level outflow is quite good and if anything it's made some progress today.

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

                    * ATLANTIC     SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      AL932016  06/05/16  00 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    30    29    30    32    33    34    35    31    27    19   DIS   DIS   DIS
V (KT) LAND       30    27    27    31    32    33    34    31    27    19   DIS   DIS   DIS
V (KT) LGEM       30    27    27    30    29    27    26    26    23    20    17   DIS   DIS
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  EXTP  EXTP  EXTP  EXTP

SHEAR (KT)        21    25    20    18    25    25    33    44    55    72    85    84    77
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     1    -1     0     3     5     3    13     0     6    -3   -11   -12   -10
SHEAR DIR        268   264   260   231   225   241   243   254   250   250   261   274   274
SST (C)         29.2  28.7  28.3  27.9  27.8  27.5  25.7  24.4  24.3  23.0  14.1   9.1  14.5
POT. INT. (KT)   155   148   142   136   135   132   114   106   107   101    76    71    74
ADJ. POT. INT.   147   141   133   127   126   122   105    99   103    97    74    70    71
200 MB T (C)   -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -51.8 -52.3 -51.5 -52.0 -50.9 -51.0 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7
200 MB VXT (C)   0.1   0.0   0.2   0.2   0.2   0.4   0.3   0.3   0.3   0.5  -0.1  -0.6  -0.9
TH_E DEV (C)       9     8     7     7     7     7     8     5     6     2     0     0     0
700-500 MB RH     81    83    82    82    79    78    71    61    58    62    64    59    52
MODEL VTX (KT)     9    10    11    13    13    13    15    13    13    14    16    14    14
850 MB ENV VOR    33    39    35    45    48    29     2    -8    54    94   119    97   118
200 MB DIV        74    60    73    95    94    99   109    57    59    66    97    61    63
700-850 TADV       9     5     1     5     7    18    29    44    57    21    39   111   114
LAND (KM)          8   -21   -62    81   226   384    87   100   202   568   522   565  1124
LAT (DEG N)     18.5 xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x
LONG(DEG W)     87.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT)    10    13    12    13    14    16    19    25    33    41    40    33    30
HEAT CONTENT      29    63    48    10    16    36     8     2     0     0     0     0     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):312/  9      CX,CY:  -6/  6
  T-12 MAX WIND:  30            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  768  (MEAN=618)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  15.9 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  16.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR):            3.2

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  11.  12.  13.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          1.   1.   2.   3.   6.  10.  14.  17.  19.  19.  18.  18.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     0.   1.   2.   2.   1.  -1.  -7. -15. -27. -42. -57. -71.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -1.   1.   2.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -1.  -1.   0.   2.   3.   4.   5.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.      -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -5.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -6.  -6.  -6.  -5.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   1.   2.   2.   2.   5.   2.   2.   1.   3.   1.   0.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   3.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -3.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   3.   3.   3.   4.   4.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  GOES PREDICTORS       -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -4.  -3.  -3.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE          -1.   0.   2.   3.   4.   5.   1.  -3. -11. -19. -32. -45.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   30. LAT, LON:   18.5    87.5

      ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932016 INVEST     06/05/16  00 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):     0.0     -49.5  to   33.0       0.60           3.5
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :    21.6      28.8  to    2.9       0.28           0.7
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    33.2       0.0  to  155.1       0.21           0.4
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :    15.9      37.5  to    2.9       0.62           1.6
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :    -0.2       2.8  to   -3.1       0.50           1.3
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    30.0      22.5  to  121.0       0.21           0.2
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :    79.2     -23.1  to  181.5       0.50           0.5
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :   104.8      28.4  to  139.1       0.69           1.0
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:     0.0     100.0  to    0.0       1.00           0.6
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):    -7.0     960.3  to  -67.1       0.94           0.0
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   6% is   1.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  16% is   1.4 times sample mean (11.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  10% is   1.4 times sample mean ( 7.2%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   8% is   1.9 times sample mean ( 4.2%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   5% is   1.9 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
 
 Matrix of RI probabilities
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:     6.2%   16.0%    9.9%    7.9%    5.5%    0.0%    0.0%
    Logistic:     1.3%    6.0%    2.4%    0.5%    0.0%    0.1%    0.1%
    Bayesian:     0.0%    0.6%    0.2%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
   Consensus:     2.5%    7.5%    4.2%    2.8%    1.8%    0.0%    0.0%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932016 INVEST     06/05/16  00 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932016 INVEST     06/05/2016  00 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
      TIME (HR)      0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS)  30    27    27    31    32    33    34    31    27    19   DIS   DIS   DIS
 18HR AGO           30    29    29    33    34    35    36    33    29    21   DIS   DIS   DIS
 12HR AGO           30    27    26    30    31    32    33    30    26    18   DIS   DIS   DIS
  6HR AGO           30    24    21    20    21    22    23    20    16   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
      NOW                              CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
  IN  6HR                              INTENSITY IN  6HR < 83 KT
  IN 12HR                              INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT

[tarheelprogrammer]

From what I am seeing all the models initialized the wrong center and the NHC has the center a ways west of where they did so. Yet the intensity from the models just jumped up again as far as consensus. Hmmm.

[xcool22]

I think Model Plots are wrong imo..'



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[BobHarlem]

I think Model Plots are wrong imo..'



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Bad init? Best Track Center too far west?

[psyclone]

it does have a formative look with broad, curved banding...but the convection has been transient and of course we lack a coherent center...so its got some work to do. very large overall circulation...a big ball of tropical juice for sure.

[xcool22]

I think Model Plots are wrong imo..'



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Bad init? Best Track Center too far west?

on Center

[gatorcane]

yes about the banding latest imagery coming in shows a band for the first time forming on northern side between NE tip of Yucatan and Western tip of Cuba. By the way Key West radar is picking up first "bands" over the Straits moving NW off of Cuba

[northjaxpro]

it does have a formative look with broad, curved banding...but the convection has been transient and of course we lack a coherent center...so its got some work to do. very large overall circulation...a big ball of tropical juice for sure.

Yeah, this is a typical early season monsoonal gyre which takes time to coalesce a defined LLC. Give it another 18-24 hours from now though and we probably will have a closed off defined LLC.

[AdamFirst]

[floridasun78]

look south fl could get very bad weather strong storm here miami weather office open my eye up ((Regardless of the classification of this event, the major impacts
to southern Florida are expected to be heavy rain/flooding,
strong winds over the Gulf waters, and the potential for strong
thunderstorms that could produce tornadoes. Anyone with interests
in southern Florida should monitor the progress of this system
over the next several days at the event unfolds. Sunday will be an
important day to follow the forecast evolution and make sure you
have your ready kit as conditions will begin to deteriorate on
Monday.)) their say kit that mean hurr kit their think could close sw fl and modeles forcast or strongest wind could hit southern part state that going one side storm meaning strongest storm going southern part state!!!!!

[Steve]

nam brings worst weather with the front to nw fl. ???

[floridasun78]

i notice that upper low off texas moving east that could cause 93l to go more ene not above tampa area if move faster and 93l(personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.))

[stormwise]

Yeah CMC Coast hugger.

[RL3AO]

^^^

Thats probably not going to be the low that forms and takes over though. I think thats too far west.

[AJC3]

what part west coast will see watch?

The NHC seems like they like to weight the breakpoints toward CWA boundaries. My guess would be Suwannee river to bonita beach (Ruskin's CWA coast)...it fits the storm track keeps everything in one CWA.

Just to be clear, TC watches and warnings are coordinated and finalized with and by NHC and the local WFOs.