ATL: COLIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

June systems from NW Caribbean always seem to find their way towards the Cedar Key area...

[RL3AO]

I agree cycloneye and it seems with the data in place already you could just name it now thereby giving folks 6 to 8 more hours on a Sunday for prep. But that's just my opinion.

They issue advisories when they have scientific evidence that it's a tropical cyclone. Hopefully next year they'll have the ability to issue advisors and watches/warnings before genesis.

[robbielyn]

June systems from NW Caribbean always seem to find their way towards the Cedar Key area...

Don't they though? Go figure. I hate how they always say it's going to tampa or just north cause usually it's the big bend. like 8 times out of 10.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, it does seem like these June monsoonal gyres find their way up towards the Big Bend area of the state. This has been especially the case over the past 5 years or so.

[cycloneye]

I agree cycloneye and it seems with the data in place already you could just name it now thereby giving folks 6 to 8 more hours on a Sunday for prep. But that's just my opinion.

They issue advisories when they have scientific evidence that it's a tropical cyclone. Hopefully next year they'll have the ability to issue advisors and watches/warnings before genesis.

Topic that the NHC director talked in a tweet.

Dr. Rick Knabb ‏@NHCDirector · 44m44 minutes ago

We do not yet have option to issue @NHC_Atlantic forecasts and watches/warnings prior to tropical cyclone formation. Working on it for 2017.

[Yellow Evan]

Although center is exposed, convection has increased quite a bit and 93L in all looks much better than it did when I went to bed.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Is it possible for LLC to appear under the deeper convection or is it set in stone now to be north of Yucatan? Shear should give it a hair cut either way. If 20 knots of shear almost tore Bonnie apart I believe 40 to 50 knots will be a problem.

[Sanibel]

We've got 3/4's of the tin off on a roofing job on my house.

[northjaxpro]

Is it possible for LLC to appear under the deeper convection or is it set in stone now to be north of Yucatan? Shear should give it a hair cut either way. If 20 knots of shear almost tore Bonnie apart I believe 40 to 50 knots will be a problem.

It is a possibility that the LLC can re-form closer to the deeper convection. Right now, the current LLC is exposed on the northwest edge of that deep convection on the coast of the NE tip of the YP. We will find out later what is going on when Recon gets in there.

[robbielyn]

I think if the media does their job right and is known for credibility, then a soupy mess like this can contain the necessary warnings for flooding, tornadoes rip currents telling people to be prepared for these conditions as they are going to exist regardless of cyclone formation. Now if it had already been established as a storm in the carribean and it could form into a true blue symmetrical strong TS then absolutely. Winds aren't forcasted above 25-30 mph except with gusts and rains only 4-6". we have had lots worse thunderstorms with 12 inches of rain before. Texas has had it way worse past few weeks than what we will see tomorrow. No one has to board windows and people in low lying areas should be getting sandbags already filled up. They know who they are unless they are new to Fl. It's sad people cant use common sense. look how many people drive through flood waters despite the warning turn around dont drown? JMO.

[NDG]

I am starting to see several eddies circulating around the bigger circulation, a couple of them coming out of the deep convection.

[tarheelprogrammer]

I am starting to see several eddys circulating around the bigger circulation, a couple of them coming out of the deep convection.

Not good for the storm but good for Florida. LLC to the northwest of convection is the real one. Good because it looks to be getting sheared.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Is it possible for LLC to appear under the deeper convection or is it set in stone now to be north of Yucatan? Shear should give it a hair cut either way. If 20 knots of shear almost tore Bonnie apart I believe 40 to 50 knots will be a problem.

It is a possibility that the LLC can re-form closer to the deeper convection. Right now, the current LLC is exposed on the northwest edge of that deep convection on the coast of the NE tip of the YP. We will find out later what is going on when Recon gets in there.

Yeah I see that on visible and thanks for the input as always.

[northjaxpro]

There was a picture in the Bonnie thread last week showing people driving through flood waters on Interstate 95 in South Carolina. So, yes, I agree, people just need to exercise common sense in situations with these tropical systems. Driving through flood waters is certainly not using common sense that is for sure.

[tarheelprogrammer]

:uarrow: There was a picture in the Bonnie thread last week showing people driving through flood waters on Interstate 95 in South Carolina. So, yes, I agree, people just need to exercise common sense in situations with these tropical systems. Driving through flood waters is certainly not using common sense that is for sure.

Yeah seen a video of a vehicle trying to pass a flooded road in Texas and almost got swept away then had to get out of the car for safety. Very chilling scene and a reason I will never try that.

[robbielyn]

btw where is aric dunn? I always enjoy his input.

[Evil Jeremy]

Looking at the loops this morning, the broad low just north of Yucatan looks pretty dominant, so much for that relocation to the eastern convection mass...

[tarheelprogrammer]

Looking at the loops this morning, the broad low just north of Yucatan looks pretty dominant, so much for that relocation to the eastern convection mass...

Yep and it is now time for shear to do its magic. Still a big flood threat for Florida and tornado risk as well.

[TheStormExpert]

Wind Shear is decreasing in the very extreme NW Caribbean, but is remaining strong or increasing in the GoM.

[tropicwatch]

Station 42056 (LLNR 110) - Yucatan Basin - 120 NM ESE of Cozumel, MX
Wind Direction (WDIR): SE ( 140 deg true )
- Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 13.0 m/s or 25.3 kts
- Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 17.0 m/s or 33.0 kts
- Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 3.6 m
- Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
- Average Period Average Period (APD): 6.5 sec
- Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ESE ( 115 deg true )
- Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 1007.0 mb
- Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 28.0 °C
- Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 28.9 °C
- Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 26.3 °C
- Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 33.8 °C
- Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 14 m/s
- Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 15 m/s