ATL: COLIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[psyclone]

Sweet. Let 'er dump. these are the only types of storms I wish to my backyard

[stormwise]

That was quick for a low that may not even develop.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Wind Shear is decreasing in the very extreme NW Caribbean, but is remaining strong or increasing in the GoM.

Yes, looking at that map it is hair cutting time. Shear is very strong.

[northjaxpro]

Looking at the loops this morning, the broad low just north of Yucatan looks pretty dominant, so much for that relocation to the eastern convection mass...

I agree with you Evil Jeremy. The question posed earlier was if there was a possibility of re-formation, and it was leading into early today, albeit a small probability. Asymmetric system for sure, maybe a 45 kt TS at best.

[TheStormExpert]

:uarrow: Sweet. Let 'er dump. these are the only types of storms I wish to my backyard

Could really use the rain down here where I'm at in S. FL as well, so BRING IT ON!

[Evil Jeremy]

That was quick for a low that may not even develop.

If the NHC has started advisories, than it has sufficiently developed.

[TheAustinMan]

The National Hurricane Center has confirmed their impending advisories.

NHC Atlantic Ops ‏@NHC_Atlantic 9s10 seconds ago
NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Three at 11 am. This will include a TS Warning for part of the Florida west coast.

[Evil Jeremy]

Advisories on TD Three will begin at 11am. TS warnings for parts of West coast of Florida.

I couldn't find a record of this on the internet until just a minute ago when one of the NHC Twitters tweeted it. Not that I doubt you at all, I'm just glad S2k is capable of getting "scoops"

While a relocation to the eastern convection mass is likely not in the cards, the system's vorticity is still centered to the east of the NHC's fix point, dead center between Cancun and Cuba:

[gatorcane]

First outer rain bands approach Naples area. Just north of Yucatan low looks dominant and convection looks like it is trying to wrap on eastern side. Hopefully shear should keep it from rapidly organizing as what the global models suggest. Also I notice the presence of a Saharan air layer that has moved into South Florida this morning. Not sure if that might also keep 93l in check

[cycloneye]

This time they didn't wait for recon to iniciate advisories.

[Yellow Evan]

Glad they aren't waiting for recon.

[wxman57]

Interesting that they're being more proactive with this storm (than with Bill last June). I don't think that the LLC is well-defined enough for TD classification, but the NHC may not (yet) be able to issue "Potential Tropical Cyclone" advisories (planned for 2017) so they're calling it a TD a bit early so they can initiate advisories. We've been issuing advisories since Thursday.

"Landfall" looks like a bit north of Cedar Key Monday evening. There may not be much wind/squalls associated with the center, as most squalls should be south and east of the track.

[johngaltfla]

Interesting that they're being more proactive with this storm (than with Bill last June). I don't think that the LLC is well-defined enough for TD classification, but the NHC may not (yet) be able to issue "Potential Tropical Cyclone" advisories (planned for 2017) so they're calling it a TD a bit early so they can initiate advisories. We've been issuing advisories since Thursday.

"Landfall" looks like a bit north of Cedar Key Monday evening. There may not be much wind/squalls associated with the center, as most squalls should be south and east of the track.

Yeah, that's going to make for a lot of fun driving tomorrow afternoon and evening from Charlotte County north. Ugh.

[MetroMike]

Interesting that they're being more proactive with this storm (than with Bill last June). I don't think that the LLC is well-defined enough for TD classification, but the NHC may not (yet) be able to issue "Potential Tropical Cyclone" advisories (planned for 2017) so they're calling it a TD a bit early so they can initiate advisories. We've been issuing advisories since Thursday.

"Landfall" looks like a bit north of Cedar Key Monday evening. There may not be much wind/squalls associated with the center, as most squalls should be south and east of the track.

Same feelings here. They need the public to recognize the threat here. There has been such a storm drought the past years that most of the public does not really care about what is going on.

[tolakram]

25 frame loop, speed it up. (NFL voice) You make the call.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=23&lon=-86&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=25&mapcolor=black

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
1500 UTC SUN JUN 05 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM INDIAN PASS TO ENGLEWOOD.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INDIAN PASS TO ENGLEWOOD

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 88.1W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 88.1W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 88.0W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 24.0N 87.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 26.9N 86.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 160SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 29.6N 84.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 32.6N 79.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 40.0N 63.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 46.5N 45.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 51.0N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 88.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Frank2]

Hi gatorcane, I also noticed the SAL this morning when out walking. As we all know, normally that puts a cap on convection. Usually I'd consider that a bad thing, but in this case it might be very good timing...

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016
1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 88.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM NW OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 550 MI...880 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Gulf coast of
Florida from Indian Pass to Englewood.

[tarheelprogrammer]

25 frame loop, speed it up. (NFL voice) You make the call.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=23&lon=-86&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=25&mapcolor=black

What do you see.

[NDG]

I think if anything the ULL/trough over TX/MX is starting to help the system ventilate it, yes, there is shear but not that destructive.IMO.
There's some expansion now of the high cloud tops westward.